Trading Observations

• AAPL higher on numbers (mainly services and guidance better than feared) along with INTC + KLAC

• SMH reclaimed 200-day but still need $254 to calm the waters

• TEAM + V setting up a run at 6100 resistance

• It doesn't 'feel' like it, but S&P has been in 5850-6100 range for a full 3 months now...

• Tariff headline risk today with Mexico/Canada potentially kicking in tmrw, will see if Trump offers any clarity today (my guess is they DON'T go into effect after whatever posturing takes place today)

• With odds of recession falling to a new low at 19% from 35% pre-election, odds tilting more toward smids? 

   

Futures

DOW +94

S&P +21

Nasdaq +136

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Financials / Retail / Healthcare

WBA – Down 11% after needed to suspend its nearly 100-year-old dividend to conserve cash.  Not sure why we are shocked by this move.

DECK – Down 15% on slightly light guidance. The stock was up 82% last year on Ugg and Hoka growth.

MBUU, BC – Both boat makers offered cautious guidance as Florida hurricane markets are an issue and dealers aren’t looking for inventory.

CIFR – The crypto mining stock is up 15% on a $50MM PIPE investment.

COST – is planning to gradually raise wages for its US store workers over the next three years, amidst growing union tensions and potential strike threats.

Visa: +2% solid Q1 / accelerating growth across most of the key drivers. Strong holiday spending season boosted numbers in the quarter

MSTR - $563 Million From Preferred Stock Sale

ABBV rises 4% as quarterly revenue beat expectations as sales of newer medicines offset the decline of its aging blockbuster Humira.

Technology

AAPL: +3.4% Shrs rallying on better-than-expected guide (buy side expectations were below consensus + bleeding lower into print) - commentary around AI and China soothed investors’ angst about a slowdown .. For qrtr, was ok, not great. China looks weaker than expected. Services beat and good GMs. iPhone missed driven by China weakness. Reported revs .. Q1 '22 $123.95B; Q1 '23 $117.15B; Q1 '24 $119.58B; Q1 '24 $124.3B

AI FRENZY: OpenAI in talks to raise as much as $40bn, targets $340bn valuation in SoftBank-led funding round ... was valued $175bn in last funding round in Oct (FY25 est revs $11.bn, projected loss $14bn)

AAPL / AI: Co said will introduce more languages for its Apple Intelligence service in April (mgmt. on the call said iPhone sales are better in those markets where Apple Intelligence is available)

ADBE: Chief Strategy Officer, Scott Belsky, is leaving the company to join the A24 film studio (Bloomberg)

EA- MoffettNathanson upgrading

GOOGL +3% Thurs another close >$200 level .... Closed at its highest level yet. Thurs saw Techcrunch reporting Google issues ‘voluntary exit’ program for Android, Chrome, and Pixel employees. Investors took this as a positive sign for margins going forward

INTC rises 1.9% after the chipmaker reported fourth-quarter results that were better than investors expected as it navigates a difficult return to competitiveness. Not that anyone cares. Future case study in business schools on the fall of an American empire.

MU: -1.4% lower as Nvidia said to approve Samsungs 8-layer HBM3E AI memory (less advanced) - only going to low performance Chinese parts.

NVDA – Jensen to meet with President Trump today

PLTR: CEO on CNBC 11am ET

SMCI/Twittersphere last night: "China has been getting H100s from Super Micro Computer"

VIAV: +17% beat + raise; bullish demand commentary on call ... Bulls: remains well-positioned to gain market share from the multi-year runway to convert paper-based payments to card, enabling high-single-digit payment volume growth over at least the next 3 years

X/Twitter: Musk bringing advertisers back To X: Amazon boosts spending, Apple considers return

META – Bbg reports stock is trading at an all-time high vs the SPY with relative strength of 74, indicating overbought.

Industrials 

United Parcel Service (UPS) – Baird downgrading to neutral from outperform (see note below).

Air Products (APD) Raised to Outperform at Bernstein; PT $375

Avery Dennison (AVY) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $205

C.H. Robinson (CHRW) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $113

Enphase Energy (ENPH) Raised to Neutral at Guggenheim

XOM – beats, Guyana & Permian output lift upstream earnings