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Market Snapshot
River1 Asset Management
November 06, 2025
Morning Note
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Invest with us here: https://www.river1.us/invest.php
Trading Observations
Futures flat to up slightly
Challenger Jobs data a little worry, reversing bond yields a little after ADP yday
Here’s the Jobs data https://tinyurl.com/u27z92x8 [tinyurl.com]
Tariffs still uncertain, while FAA maybe applying pressure to reopen
SPX performance after re-open https://tinyurl.com/yvtxd8d7 [tinyurl.com]
AAII Sentiment is unchanged from last reading https://tinyurl.com/h9eby68h [tinyurl.com]
AI Adoption strong https://tinyurl.com/bp4vwxdp [tinyurl.com]
AI spend still an issue, META already has been punished but spending is more than we see on the surface https://tinyurl.com/8xr8ukd9 [tinyurl.com]
Consumer may be stretched but they expect to spend at Christmas https://tinyurl.com/37hde9zy [tinyurl.com]
Futures
DOW -62
S&P -5
Nasdaq -36
Financials / Consumer / Healthcare
PFE plans to sweeten its bid for MTSR, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters, after a judge denied its request to block rival drugmaker Novo Nordisk's $10 billion offer for the biotech company. The Wall Street Journal earlier reported the news of Pfizer's impending bid.
ELF – Down 24% - They are calling Haily Bieber’s Rhode a huge win, but the numbers outside that were an absolute whiff. 66x P/E not helping either.
CELH – Down 16% - Solid run by the stock halted by Q3 sales miss. Very competitive field in our opinion, so be careful the multiple you pay.
DNUT (Krispy Kreme) – Up 12% - Earnings missed. Short interest was massive though. 98/100 short squeeze ratio.
KMX – CarMax down 11% on earnings and terminating the CEO. Comp sales down 8-12% hurt. Loan losses weren’t the problem. If they were the market would have a new fear factor.
PRKS – Down 20% on a miss. Waterpark Company. Good luck Travis Kelce on the SIX play.
PLNT – Up 14% on solid earnings. Cheap gyms for the trade down win.
PZZA – Down another 4% on turnaround plan now that P/E has backed out.
PAYC: -8% inline; disappointment in the lack of an upward revision given the positive commentary during the quarter. Bears/ppl think the stock will draw limited interest until investors get clarity on 2026 growth expectations
WRBY – Down 9% on revenue miss. Consumer spend wilt.
HOOD – Flat – EBITDA beat, expectations high.
PTON (-1.3%) recalls 833k original series Bike+ units; due to fall / injury hazards. #s tonight / 19% short int
SNAP: +20% squeeze/rip on $400M Perplexity deal/guide/buyback. Qrtr outperformed expectations on sales ($1.506B vs St $1.49B), EBITDA ($182M vs $124M), and DAUs (477M vs St 476M), and the Q4 guide is bullish (they see EBITDA of $295M vs St $255M w/sales of $1.68-1.71B vs St $1.69B).
Technology
CRWV, NBIS and INSM were the three largest additions to the MSCI World Index measured by full company market capitalization after MSCI adds 69 companies and removes 64 from Global index review.
AI CIRCLE OF TRUST (ROUND + ROUND): NVIDIA-BACKED VAST DATA INKS $1.17B AI DEAL W/ COREWEAVE: RTRS
AI SPEND: CapEx Expected to Exceed US$600 Billion in 2026, Ushering in a New Growth Cycle for the AI Hardware Ecosystem, Says TrendForce
APP: +7.5% solid upside in Q3 on rev/EBITDA; the Q4 guide is above plan (see sales of $1.585B with EBITDA of $1.305B vs. the St $1.53B and $1.26B, respectively), and $3.2B is added to the buyback.
ARM: +5.5% strong qrtr/robust outlook. Arm’s FY2Q26 print was a beat top and bottom line - both licensing and royalties strong; highlighted Royalty Revs growth from all end markets including smartphones, data center, auto and IoT, and licensing revs increased 56% YY with more leading cos signing high-value licenses for next-gen technologies
BE: +10% simply incredible px action - few long term bulls no intention of exiting yet .... T+1 momentum/ORCL warrants fueling near-term move as ppl look to EEI conf next week as potential catalyst.
BMBL: -5% Q3 rev slides as paying users decline; slow moving turnaround + concerns around secular challenges facing dating industry
DASH: -11% higher spend weighs / weaker margin ..... upside on Q3 sales ($3.44B vs. the St $3.35B), GOV ($25.015B vs St $$24.577B), and EBITDA ($754M vs. the St $750M), but the EBITDA guide for Q4 falls short ($760M vs St $802M), and mgmt warns of increased spending in 2026 (“Our 2026 plans are still being finalized
DDOG: +8% Q3 revs +28% y/y (inline with buy side), lrg deal momentum. Sees Q4 rev above buy side. Healthy FY guide. Stay long INFRASTRUCTURE. "The Datadog R&D team is innovating rapidly to help our customers solve problems in the AI space
DUOL: -22% poster child for AI roadkill .. poor guide / reduction in bookings / EBITDA outlook - Duolingo prioritizing user growth relative to monetization weighs on future bookings
FSLY: +19% solid qrtr/guide; growth is recovering this year after a 2024 slump,” and “the improvement reflects stronger cross-selling, realigned sales incentives, expanded sales channels and new verticals. Business continues to accelerate and impressively was led by Security upside within the existing installed base that caused higher leverage within the business
FTNT: -12% Services business decelerated and there is low visibility for upcoming quarters; Service rev is expected to rebound in 2H26, a disappointing extension vs prior commentary indicating 4Q25 stabilization ... pretty poor call with mixed messaging not great
LYFT: +4% Q4 bookings acceleration; for Q3, EBITDA right inline w/the St as sales were a tiny bit light at $1.685B (vs St $1.7B) thanks to the take rate (sales/bookings) falling a bit below expectations (~5.9% vs St 6.1%). FCF was very robust at ~$278M (vs St ~$108M). AVs: the ramp-up of autonomous-vehicle supply on its platform hinges on its alliances with OEMs, where Waymo has so far taken a fragmented approach with marketplaces
MRVL: +11% (follows 6% jump Wed) - report SoftBank explored a potential takeover of Marvell earlier this year - in what would have been the semiconductor industry’s largest-ever deal
Industrials
Caterpillar (CAT) upgraded to buy at HSBC
Champion Homes (SKY) upgraded to outperform at RBC
Fastenal (FAST) reports Oct ADS +11.3%, roughly in-line with our expectations of +11.1%
Fortive (FTV) announces replenishment of general share repurchase authorization to 20M shares
GXO Logistics (GXO) upgraded to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank
Lithium Americas (LAC) upgraded to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan
RXO Inc. (RXO) – Q3 Revs/EBITDA/EPS misses, Q4 EBITDA guidance well below consensus, stock trading down 15%
Tecnoglass (TGLS) – Q3 EPS misses, FY25 Revs lowered, stock offered down 2%
TSLA: shareholder vote / focus on Musk's trillion dollar pay package. #thoughtsandprayers for Elon