Channel Calendar

This Week – The earnings are much lighter from here and mainly retail. HD and WMT the only important names.

Thursday: Retail Sales, Philly Fed, Jobless Claims, WMT and DE earnings

Friday: Housing Starts. Goolsbee from Fed speaks

Torrent Trading Observations

• Jobless data and retail sales better than expected which is easing recession fears.

• Get a better look at consumer with WMT up 4% on first move with earnings, ATH

• 5390 support.  5455 (50-day) minor and 5490 more formidable resistance

• DE and CSCO higher on earnings.  AMAT post close

• Oscillators still slightly oversold

• A breadth issue - last five days (it’s a BULL market until proven otherwise! 3rd five-day win streak of the year for the S&P 500. You don't see long win streaks like this in bear markets.  2008 had one, and 2022 didn't see a single five-day win streak), S&P +5%, Nazz +6%, Russell --- flat (again)

• Given the strong move, AAII Bulls ticked up, but only slightly, to 42% from 40%, but bears drop to 29% from 37%

Wave Watch

Why interest rates are headed lower, we think for a long time

Mainstream Metrics

10 Year

GOLD

BITCOIN

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

Atlanta Fed President Bostic said he is “open” to cutting rates in Sept as the Fed can’t “afford to be late” in starting the easing process – FT

WMT – Up 8% on FY outlook raised. Headlines are all saying bargain hunters with squeezed pockets are coming back to the cheap retailer. Likely helpful for other low end retail names today.

ULTA – Up 11% on news Berkshire has taken a stake.

SIRI – Up 7% on Berkshire stake

HOOD - Up 3% as DB upgraded the name and E-Brokers in general on lower interest rates.

NKE - Up 4% on Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square announcing a stake.

HA – Hawaiian Air up 5% on extension of the potential merger’s review period with Alaska.

SBUX – Announced the new CEO pay package at $113MM. We all knew it would be a haul, so no surprise here.

AMH – To buy 1700 single-family homes in Texas, Florida, and Nevada from Man Group.

Technology

LYFT – CEO bought shares below $10.

CSCO – Traded +5% last night… announced a 7% cut in its global headcount to focus on high-growth areas such as AI and cybersecurity. (this is after the previously announced 5% cut)… results beat last night … results were helped by Cisco’s $28B purchase of Splunk back in March. The street is underweighted most of the core Enterprise communication and Telecom supply chain.

AAPL – Berkshire may be done selling down its Apple stake, w/the position now standing at an even 400M shares (the exact size of Berkshire’s stake in Coke, which has held steady for decades) – Baron’s

GOOGL – the DOJ is considering what remedies to request, and options include forcing the firm to break off Chrome/Android, make its data available to rivals, and/or eliminating exclusive search deals like the one it has w/Apple - NYT

INTC – Softbank held talks w/Intel about building an AI GPU capable of competing w/Nvidia, but the negotiations failed to yield a deal - FT

SNOW -4%. Berkshire Exit, Wells Downgrade

BABA are down 2.6% after the China-based online marketplace reported first-quarter revenue that was weaker than expected, dragged down by tepid sales for its core domestic e-commerce offerings and Cainiao logistics arm.

JD ADRs are up 4.1%, after the Chinese e-commerce company reported revenue and adjusted earnings per American depositary receipt that exceeded Wall Street expectations.

DELL rises 3.8% as JPMorgan added the computer maker’s stock to its analyst focus list, citing an “attractive entry point.”

GAMB shares are up 15% after the marketing company for the online gambling industry reported its second-quarter results and raised its full-year forecast.

Industrials 

Carrier (CARR) to sell commercial and residential fire business to an affiliate of Lone Star Funds for $3B

HEICO (HEI) ticking up 7% this morning after Berkshire filed a 13F indicating they have initiated a new 1M share position in the name

Nucor (NUE) upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley

Titan Machinery (TITN) trading down 26% after negatively preannouncing 2Q25 and guiding materially lower (see Baird commentary below)

DE shares rise 1.6% after the farm equipment company reported net income for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate and maintained its full-year outlook for the metric.

NAZZ 100 estimates starting to roll over?

Rapid Review

Openwater Opinion