Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
June 13, 2025

Morning Note

presented by -

Invest with us here: https://www.river1.us/invest.php

Trading Observations

Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, in a major escalation in the standoff over Tehran’s atomic program that risks sparking a new war in the Middle East.
Futs hit as geopolitical fears all week unfort proving to be justified; OIL +8.4%, GOLD+1.2% - global selling pressure is fairly broad, w/ most major sub-groups in the red.
Semis down 2-3% with SOX +22% QTD coming into this am; VZ/T catching defensive bid
Cant imagine many wanting to hold addtl risk over the weekend ....
Total put/call .78 - lowest since 29 May. Recall when we called the bottom in April that was flipped to historical highs
OUTFLOWS: US stock funds just suffered the biggest outflows in almost three months, according to data published by BofA citing EPFR Global data, another sign the rally may be stalling. About $9.8 billion was redeemed from US stocks in the week through Wednesday, the most in 11 week

Futures

DOW -401

S&P -52

Nasdaq -248

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Gold

Bitcoin

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

FHN – Removed from Baird’s Bearish Fresh Pick list after the down move. Victory lap for the call as it was down 16% compared to 6.5% for the bank index.

Baird on Fin Tech – This type of slowing growth environment has been met with higher multiples for names like MA, V, FI, FIS, and GPN as the quality of earnings growth becomes harder to find.

Crypto High Beta all up 2-5% - Hood +4%, COIN +2%

Technology

NVDA - spokesperson said Hopper demand very strong and Blackwell production on track to ramp in 2H.

NVDA - Upgraded to Buy at New Street Research.

PLTR - Traded +17% on a beat & raise. PLTR winning in the market because products are production ready vs vague prototyping. Seeing strength in US Commercial business. Customer counts increased 83% y/y …Introduced Warp Speed for the re-Industrialization (like Spacex that developed from scratch via internal engineering)

Industrials

CAT – turned negative after big Q2 EPS beat. Reports Q2 EPS $5.99 ex-items vs FactSet $5.56. Q2 revenue $16.69B vs FactSet $16.91B. Demand numbers were pretty weak.

Lucid (LCID) - Raised to Neutral at Cantor; PT $4. LCID production guide unchanged and announced PIF committed another $1.5B.