Calendar

This Week – Scattered earnings with NVDA Wednesday post close being the big show. Fed Governors will be doing some post Jackson Hole cleanup.

Tuesday – Case Shiller Housing Prices

Wednesday – NVDA earnings matter most. NTAP, CRWD, CRM, and HPQ report as well.

Thursday – GDP Second Release. Jobless Claims, BBY, DG, ADSK, and ULTA report.

Friday – PCE (this one matters)

Trading Observations

• Little incremental

• Market continuing to work off the overbought ahead of tech earnings post-close tomorrow

• 5670 resistance, 5585/5560 support....   

• For the bulls- new home sales +> 10% last month RyanDetrick [x.com] 

• For the bears - oil up 7% in three days on geopolitical concerns - lot of technicians highlighting, but I think will prove to be short-lived

• With new DOW high, the odds of a recession over next six months are low - Since 1900, the US economy has been in a recession 22.4% of the time.  However, six months after a new all-time high in the Dow, it has been in a recession only 8.9% of the time....   

Futures

DOW -124

S&P -19

Nasdaq -85

10-Year Yield

GOLD

BITCOIN

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

July RV Shipments up 18% y/y per Baird. These have been very volatile, and to be honest, this number seems way too high.

Baird on Banks – “Margin of safety limited”. Basically, the note says everything is fine and that’s priced in. They say the excitement for cuts helping these names is overblown.

AFRM – Reiterated outperform at Mizuho.

CAVA under pressure after CEO and several key executives and directors disclosed stock sales following post-earnings rally to record highs. I mean, can you blame them, stock is up over 50% since Aug 5th.

KO named a top pick at MS

WMT recalls apple juice sold in 25k states over arsenic levels Walmart recalls apple juice sold in 25 states due to arsenic concerns (msn.com) [msn.com]

LULU - Raymond James analyst Rick Patel cut the target on Lululemon Athletica Inc. to $350 from $400. Maintains outperform rating.

LLY announced Zepbound (tirzepatide) 2.5 mg and 5 mg single-dose vials are available for self-pay for patients with an on-label prescription, significantly expanding the supply of Zepbound in response to high demand.

• Negative headline for HIMS, NVO etc

Technology

NVDA Baird Preview – Supply could potentially restrain 3Q revenue outlook, representing a risk into earnings, in our view, given strong expectations into earnings. Demand remains very strong and we operate under the assumption that an estimated $2-3B in revenue shortfall later this year due to the GB200 push out will be offset by B200A and H100 demand. Unless Nvidia is able to get incremental capacity, current CoWoS allocation to Nvidia suggests about $105B in DC revenue this year, offering no upside to consensus, representing a risk for the stock

AAPL announced CFO transition with current CFO Luca Maestri stepping away on-1-Jan-2025 after a 10-year run and Kevan Parekh, the company's VP of Financial Planning and Analysis, assuming the role.

DKNG - National Football League Players Association sued DKNG in New York federal court on Monday, accusing the sports-betting giant of refusing to pay what it owes for using NFL player likenesses on non-fungible tokens.

META - Zuckerberg regrets bowing to Biden 'pressure' over Covid https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czxlpjlgdzjo

CTSH slips 1% after the company cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.

Industrials 

AMWD – Q1 misses, FY guided a touch lower, shared indicated down 6% – reported Q1 of $459M in revenue, EBITDA of $62.9M and EPS of $1.89 ex-items, compared to cons of $475M/$64.1M/$2.37 – sees FY25 EBITDA $225M-$245M, down from prior $235M-$255M and compared to cons of $244.6M.

Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) upgraded to buy from neutral at Seaport Research Partners

XPeng (XPEV) ADRs Raised to Buy at BOCOM Intl; PT $10.05