Calendar

This Week – The half day Tuesday into off Wednesday sets the week up as mostly a “nothing done”. There are no notable earnings or interesting economic releases. Look to next week for any remaining rebalancing cleanups to get accomplished.

Monday – Durable Goods

Tuesday – Half Day, Richmond Fed

Wednesday – Off

Thursday – Jobless Claims      

Friday – Trade Balance

Trading Observations

• Quiet week ahead

• PCE calmed a lot of fears so odds of Santa coming to Town rose significantly. 2kaykim [x.com] with breadth reversing as well jasongoepfert [x.com]

• Think we drift higher -as the week goes on

• 5927 (50-day) notable, 5850 more meaningful support, 6030 resistance...

• Zero-day options on the S&P 500 index, taking up almost a half of trading volume, saw a spike last week that may offer a taster of the year to come for the US stock market in 2025.

• Yields were largely unmoved by that big miss on durable goods orders, which fell 1.1%.

If the VIX and elevated rates return to the market, do we see investors flock to the Mag 7?   

OR the new acronym:  BATMMAAN . . . as the cool kids call it

Broadcom, Apple, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet and NVIDIA

Futures

DOW -210

S&P -122

Nasdaq +8

10-Year Yield -Houston we have a problem

Oil

BITCOIN

Consumer/Financial/Healthcare

GS on the Budget – The can is kicked until about June 2025 for now depending on spending. Consensus seems to be $1.5T in debt ceiling increase against $2.5T over 10 years in spending reduction is necessary. That $250B per year, plus any tariff income, doesn’t make a huge dent in the national deficit, but at 0.7% GDP, its also not likely an immediate recession causer.

NKE – Baird maintains outperform and calls it a Top Pick for 2025 on continued turnaround.

MSTR – Who paid the $106k record high in Bitcoin last week? MSTR did. $106k average price for 5262 bitcoins.

TCSG – The Container Store has declared bankruptcy. 12x debt to EBTIDA will do that (4x is high).

LLY - Shares of Eli Lilly rose 1.7% after the Food and Drug Administration approved Zepbound, the company's weight-loss drug, for moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea in adults with obesity.

Technology

ARM / QCOM - Qualcomm shares are up 2.6% in premarket trading, after the chipmaker prevailed against Arm Holdings in a trial, where Arm claimed the company has breached a license for chip technology. Arm shares are down 2.2%.

Rigetti Computing and other stocks linked to quantum computing rise on optimism over Alphabet’s Willow chip capabilities.

• Rigetti (RGTI) +15%, D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) +22%

Industrials 

Honda and Nissan said they planned to merge in 2026, with the boards of both Japanese auto makers formally approving the start of merger talks on Monday.

TSLA - Tesla was rising 1.9% in premarket trading. The stock fell 3.5% on Friday, making it the S&P 500's worst-performing stock in the session. "To me, [ Tesla stock] was wildly overbought and long hedge funds needed a reason to take some profits," said Future Fund Active ETF cofounder and Tesla shareholder Gary Black.