Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
April 24, 2025

Morning Note

presented by -

Calendar

This Week – Mostly earnings and tariff macro.

Thursday- Durable Goods, Continue Claims, Existing Home Sales.

Friday – U Michigan.

Trading Observations

If we get a upside thrust, close your eyes and buy https://tinyurl.com/mrx4dupf [tinyurl.com]
Volume indicator already there https://tinyurl.com/2evdar65 [tinyurl.com]
Breadth showing signs of change https://tinyurl.com/2wdnmzz4 [tinyurl.com]
Oscllators very overbought so further push may be difficult
Trump is not making it easy... the push/pull weighing on markets
China throwing some cold water overnight, but who knows what really happening in background
Buyback window opens Fri and authorizations bullish https://tinyurl.com/2zczbahf [tinyurl.com]
Tech strong earnings last night with TXN (called bottom), LRCX, and NOW higher, though consumer more questionable with AAL, LUV, and KNX lower
5100 support vs. 5500 resistance
Still experiencing historic volatility https://tinyurl.com/4bu5fb2k [tinyurl.com]
Retail piling in https://tinyurl.com/w5dtfb9s [tinyurl.com] Record 279,000 new accounts added on Interactive Brokers in the 1Q if 2025
Port flows dropping like a stone https://tinyurl.com/yc7m8u45 [tinyurl.com]
Trucking volumes collapsing https://tinyurl.com/ms89ptfv [tinyurl.com]
Trucking woes could spill to employment https://tinyurl.com/239m4xzv [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW -107

S&P +5

Nasdaq +48

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Gold

Bitcoin

Financials / Retail / Healthcare

NDAQ – Small beat. Not as interesting as folks would have liked given volatility. Stock up 1%.

FI (Fiserv) – Down 9%. Merchant revenue missed by 3% on non-Clover SMB, and Clover volumes were +8%, which is a deceleration from 14%.

US Powerboat retail down 9% in March, down 5% YTD.

Baird takes hotel RevPAR assumptions down 300-400 bps.

CMG – Down 2% - Poor earnings in a cult stock. Quarterly sales declined for the first time since Covid and the CEO says the consumer is currently “on the sidelines”.

CMCSA – Down 6% as cable continues to lose subs. The only cable station with positive y/y ratings is Fox News.

UTZ - +3% on a DA Davidson upgrade citing gains in pretzel and snack.

TSCO (Tractor Supply) – Down 6% on lackluster revenues.

PEP - PepsiCo shares fall 0.5% in premarket trading after the food and beverage company reported core EPS for 1Q that narrowly missed the consensus estimate.

Technology

AI POWER UP: GEV said US electricity demand is growing at the fastest pace since the post-WWII boom in the mid/late-‘40s (CNBC)

TXN: +8% calling bottom .... Better Q2 guide due to improved demand for industrial/auto components; capital allocation was constructive for equity. Qrtr also solid. From call: “Looking back at Y2K, the GFC and COVID, we conclude that we’re at the bottom of the semi cycle and that customer inventories are at low levels across all end markets, sometimes just days of supply - history tells us ‘have capacity and inventory in times like this,’ and we are well-positioned.” .... China competition ‘is intensifying’

Analog semis: MCHP+4%, ADI+4%, ON+2.2%, NXPI+1.7% post positive T+1 reactions from TXN, STM .... TI calling bottom

ADBE Unveils new Firefly, the all-in-one app for AI-assisted content ideation, creation and production, unifying image, video, audio and vector generation and providing unmatched creative control

ANET: lagged in alpha post soft Cleveland checks; saw shorts press early

DUOL: +10% Wed post MS bullish launch (had decent size buy ticket early but opted against chasing) .... MS: "one of the best assets in internet" due to three key factors: exceptional user growth (second fastest DAU growth among top 50 US apps last year), expanding margins with clear monetization runway, and proven GenAI benefits through their Max tier subscription

Hynix: strong Q1 oper profit / bullish on HBM

GOOGL: #s tonight / 7% implied move. Long GOOGL/ss META has been tactical pair last several weeks. Positioning 5/6 out of 10 ... bogeys: Q1 Search 7-8% vs St at 9%; Q1 YT 9-10% vs St at 11%; Q1 Cloud 29%+ vs St at 28.6%; Q1 EBIT $29B+ vs St at $28.7B; CY25 capex - reit $75B at Next already ... Almost all sell-side and 3p checks have pointed to a slowdown in April, with the one standout exception M-science Tues am which said Q2 was actually tracking better than Q1 although they hadn’t seen the full impact of Temu dropping spend

IBM: -7% shorts pressing / leaving FY rev unch despite FX tailwind not well receieved (had been somewhat of safe haven name given vicious rotation out of megacap tech/semis) ... disappointing Software growth (+9% vs St closer to +10%), and Consulting bookings weakness. GMs 100bps ahead .. from call: "uncertainty may cause clients to pause and take a wait-and-see approach; we have not seen a material change in client-buying behavior"

MBLY - gains 7% after the developer of software and hardware technologies for automobiles reaffirmed its revenue forecast for the full year, assuming current auto-related tariffs continue without any changes. Expects Q2 Revenue Of ~$469.73M Vs $432.42M Est. 29% SI with 26.6M shares

LRCX: +5% solid upside in Q3 top/bottom line; Q4 guide pretty robust - revs $5B vs est $4.6B; “Our outlook remains strong even as we address near-term tariff-related uncertainty, and we are highly confident in our ability to outperform semi-industry growth in the years to come”

LYFT/Taxis: Lyft will start dispatching standard taxis to some US riders next month, beginning in St. Louis on May 5, as an alternative to gig drivers in rideshare vehicles. Opted-in users will be matched with a licensed taxi when the pickup is faster, and will be able to pay, tip, and submit a rating within the Lyft app

NOW: +9% impressive qrtr / ahead of buyside bogeys (follows much better print by SAP Tues night). cRPO positive; derisked the fwd guide .... Bullish call (as always) - talking up AI opptys; long-term Federal opportunity and highlighting a strong Q1 there. "While it is still very early in the second quarter, we have not seen a material change in client buying behavior"

PLTR: impressive px action / told HF demand ... breaking past $100 today (narrative here = AI beneficiary, $1T defense spending bill, no tariff/china exposure, benefits from geopolitical turmoil…but expectations high as street modeling continued accel in the biz on tougher comps)

TYL: solid beat + raise

ROKU: +5% Wed post bullish MSci checks - said SVOD bookings accelerated in march .... name we cont to like; SVOD bookings doing well. should ramp as Netflix and others build momentum on great content through the year. Roku has downside of lower TV sales in this environment, though

Industrials

Avery Dennison (AVY) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $17

LUV latest airline to scrap guidance and cut capacity.

AAL withdrawing FY guidance

ALK tumbles 7% after the carrier’s 2Q forecast for adjusted earnings per share trailed the average analyst estimate.