Channel Calendar

Friday: Housing Starts. Goolsbee from Fed speaks

Torrent Trading Observations

• NYSE breadth made a new all-time high. 

• European stocks pared gains to trade little changed, tracking a slide in US equity futures following disappointing housing data.

  • Housing starts fell to 1,238k vs 1,329k in the prior month, est. 1,333k

• Little incremental – Could see a little profit taking after the Best Week Since November.  Data driven market driven by every economic report. 

• AMAT lower on earnings (though inline despite China weakness and had a big run)

• 5490 support, 5585 resistance

• IWM and MDY reclaim 50-days

• QQQ ran right into 50-day ma so could see a bit of consolidation before any attempt to power higher

• I do think the first dip will be shallow and short-lived

Wave Watch

Mainstream Metrics

10 Year

GOLD

BITCOIN

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

HRB shares rise 7.9% after the professional services provider forecast revenue for 2025; the guidance beat the average analyst estimate.

Bayer wins victory in US legal battle against Roundup cancer claims – Reuters

BNTX shares slip 2.0% after the vaccine maker said its combination vaccine candidate against influenza and Covid-19, developed with Pfizer, missed on one of its two main goals in a late-stage study.

Technology

Taiwan - Taiwan revised down its estimate for economic growth in 2024 after three straight upgrades, projecting a smaller increase in exports but remaining optimistic about overseas demand for artificial intelligence-related products.

ADSK – Traded -2% afterhours following Bloomberg report, “Autodesk Executives Ignored Accounting Risks, Documents Show” 

PANW Preview – PT $375 from $360. reports on Monday with investors focusing on RPO/FCF guidance as revenue and billings expectations have tempered, with mgmt. signaling a transition to RPO guidance. The stock's recent rise and valuations back to highs make us tactically cautious ahead of the print, reflecting high investor expectations amidst ongoing billings volatility. However, we remain optimistic about medium-to-long-term growth/FCF. Evercore ISI with similar comments this am.

AMAT fiscal Q3 beat, fiscal Q4 guide slightly ahead and company talked up strong growth in Logic/Foundry, AI memory (HBM) and Advanced Packaging, though stock still a laggard. From a Geo perspective, China moderated materially from 43% of revs in Q224 to 32% in Q324 due no DRAM orders (a major focus in the Q&A due to GM impact)

TXN said it signed a tentative agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce to receive up to $1.6B in proposed direct funding to support three 300mm wafer fabs under construction in Texas and Utah.

BMBL shares slip 2.7% after TD Cowen downgrades the stock to hold from buy, citing an uncertain path to recovery.

COHR shares are up 3.3% after the semiconductor device company reported its fourth-quarter results and gave an outlook.

LUMN drops 7.5% as Wells Fargo cuts the telecommunications company to underweight from equal-weight, questioning the visibility on a revenue inflection

Industrials 

CF Industrials (CF) upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays

Gates Industrial Corp. (GTES) files 20M share offering for holder Blackstone through Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Jefferies

Rivian (RIVN) halts deliveries of commercial electric van to Amazon due to component shortage – Bloomberg

Teradyne (TER) upgraded to overweight from neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald

F recalls about 85,000 Explorer SUVs equipped with the Police Interceptor Utility package over concerns of an engine fire Ford to recall about 85,000 vehicles due to risk of engine fire (msn.com) [msn.com]

Money Market Assets at fresh highs

Something to monitor (SPX est)

Starting to roll over (NDX est)

Over the last five sessions, the percentage of S&P 500 Technology sector stocks above their 10-day average cycled from below 10% to above 90%, triggering a breadth thrust signal

Rapid Review

Openwater Opinion