Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
October 20, 2025

Morning Note

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Invest with us here: https://www.river1.us/invest.php

Trading Observations

SPX close on 9/17? 6664... Close on 10/17? 6664
Opex overhang rolling off and focus turns to earnings, with 90 S&P 500 companies set to report
Trump urges Zelenskiy to cede territory to Russia in a tense meeting, leaving Ukraine disappointed – FT
Only 12% reporting (and bank heavy) but so far Factset says 86% have beaten, above the 5-yr average of 78% and the 10-yr average of 75%
It appears as though Trump trying to dial back some of the China rhetoric ahead of Xi meeting in 2 weeks and backing off some tariffs of “products that cannot be grown, mined, or naturally produced in the United States," per WSJ
CPI Fri ahead of Fed next week
Many mutual fund year-end falls on Oct 31st
Historically Oct 20-27 is statistically the most BEARISH week of Q4
Then seasonality a big tailwind over next 4 months... Let's hope we can get thru with limited angst
6720 resistance vs. 6550 support
Equity put/call finally rising (highest since late Aug) at same time as VIX
Contrarian bullish https://tinyurl.com/2uvydj24 [tinyurl.com]
Equity positioning back to neutral https://tinyurl.com/3bt8ehrb [tinyurl.com]
Though tech flows heavy https://tinyurl.com/5hank65m [tinyurl.com]
Smalls breaking out https://tinyurl.com/3sjw9xfn [tinyurl.com]
Let's hope https://tinyurl.com/mr2d4sar [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW +178

S&P +32

Nasdaq +151

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Gold

Bitcoin

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

Crypto-related all up big – BMNR up 5%, HOOD and COIN +3%.

JPM on Bank Credit – There was a sharp rise in non-performing C&I loans in several banks, but not overall. Credit compared to historical remains fine overall.

JPM on Loans at Carvana and CarMax – Bad, but not ridiculous.

JPM upgrades APO Real Estate Finance to overweight, but downgrades KKR Estate Finance to Neutral.

CELC – Today’s drug winner Celcuity up 50% after p[positive breast cancer trial data. OLMA (down 30%, and EXEL and SMMT (down 10%) are today’s losers.

MRK – Announced its breaking ground on a $4B Virginia production facility.

HOLX – Up 5% on a story TPG and BX are looking at a buyout.

LULU gains 1.7% after BNP Paribas Exane raised the recommendation on the athletic clothing company to neutral from underperform.

Technology

AAPL: +0.5% Counterpoint Research said Apple’s $AAPL iPhone 17 series outsold the iPhone 16 by 14% in its first 10 days across China and the U.S. .... FT reports that iPhone 17 upgrade cycle is exceeding expectations, with sales of the product set to witness their strongest growth since COVID

AAPL: Evercore positive - well positioned to report upside to September-quarter expectations later this month. Stronger iPhone demand and a clearer line of sight to double-digit Services growth present an attractive setup into the print

AI / NEXT LEG OF TRADE: Hyperscaler capex commentary / projections will be huge focus end of Oct

ALAB: -1.8% cut at Barclays to EqualWght - says that beyond Trainium 3, it has not seen signs of Astera's United Airlines adoption or momentum. Barclays also sees the world moving towards Ethernet

KLAC: upgraded @ Barclays (decently shorted) - believes KLA holds a "dominant" position in the process control market, where intensity should rise as a function of tech transitions.

HOOD: ROBINHOOD TO ADD 100+ NEW PREDICTION MARKET CONTRACTS POWERED BY KALSHI

HYPERSCALERS Buybacks: Buyback growth for AI hyperscalers has slowed .... One consequence of the AI capex boom is dwindling support for buybacks. Buybacks had surpassed capex as the largest use of S&P 500 cash in 2021 and 2022, but capex now represents the largest use of cash while buyback growth has recently stalled

MRVL: -1.2% cut @ Barclays - believes the ASICs story into 2026 "is less robust than initially expected." Marvell's optics growth should remain robust into next year on the strength of the 800G cycle, but concerned about long-term share dynamics with Broadcom gaining share at 1.6T

NVDA: Jensen on China ... “We are 100% out of China. We went from 95% market share to 0%. I can’t imagine any policymaker thinking that’s a good idea… whatever policy we implemented caused America to loose one of the largest markets in the world to 0%”

NVDA - Nvidia and TSMC unveiled the first Blackwell wafer produced in the US.

QRVO/SWKS: Mizuho downgrading both to UNDERPERFORM - cites a tougher macro backdrop as well as limited share catalysts for radio frequency and handsets for the downgrade. Expects 2026 iPhone units to decline 7% y/y after a better 2025. Believes the new foldable iPhone with high selling prices could delay upgrades and impact Qorvo and Skyworks; also sees China headwinds as subsidies fade into 2026

TXN are down 1.1% in premarket trading, after Mizuho Securities downgraded the chipmaker to underperform from neutral.

Industrials

Rare earth and critical minerals stocks (USAR +7.1%, AREC +8.8%, NB +9.5%, UAMY +14%) rise as William Blair analyst Neal Dingmann initiates the companies at outperform as he sees the government potentially taking a stake in them.

DXP Enterprises (DXPE) initiated buy at Freedom Broker; $148 PT

Rivian (RIVN) downgraded to underperform from neutral at Mizuho Securities; $10 PT

SPX Technologies (SPXC) initiated hold at Truist; $209 PT