Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
June 23, 2025

Morning Note

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Calendar

This Week – 14 Fed Speakers, but the only one that matters is Tuesday/Wednesday Powell in front of Congress. PCE Thursday/Friday.

Monday – Global Services PMI, Existing Home Sales

Tuesday – Home Prices, Powell Speaks, FDX earnings post.

Wednesday – New Home Sales, Powell Speaks, MU earnings post.

Thursday – PCE, Capital Goods, Initial Jobless Claims, NKE Earnings post.

Friday – PCE, Some end of quarte setup, but Monday is the final.

Trading Observations

How strong is this market? Usually get a quick fade post June Opex, in addition US involvement in Iran with futures up small and oil barely a ripple? Amazing.
Not much on the docket news wise
Powell Congressional testimony Tues/Wed, MAYBE we get some insight on why he not cutting as pressure seems to mount
PCE Friday
Some levels to watch: Closed right at 5960 support zone, 5930/5850 support vs. 6020/6050 resistance
Fund flows usually supportive seasonally https://tinyurl.com/2sfztxhy [tinyurl.com]
Retail sales growth over 4 years all inflation https://tinyurl.com/mr2ve4ak [tinyurl.com]
Quick chartpack for perspective https://tinyurl.com/ysyyf89w [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW +12

S&P +6

Nasdaq +35

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Oil

Bitcoin

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

FI: +6% plans to launch a stablecoin and platform that can be used by its clients, which include about 3,000 regional and community banks (WSJ). Additionally, the platform is expected to be compatible with other stablecoins and will allow for easy connection with the other 10,000 financial institutions and millions of merchant locations the company works with

NTRS, BK – The WSJ is reporting the two have talked merger. BNY is 3x the size, and the tie up is likely only possible in this easier regulatory regime. The leak is likely to draw out other potential bidders like GS or MS.

Chase Data for June - +2.4% y/y, +2.8% discretionary growth out pacing +1.9% non-discretionary.

ACN – Accenture defended at Baird despite weakness Friday. Organic beat and raise was overdue. Federal is a headwind the street won’t overlook currently.

JPM on Lodging – Top Picks – HLT and RHP. They also like NUG. C Corps are down 10% YTD, and REITs down 18% vs SPX +2% as the market hates rates.

Baird on Banks – Likes regionals over mega-caps given the recent price action.

CRCL is set to extend gains for a third consecutive session after the US Senate passed stablecoin legislation last week.

HIMS - Hims & Hers Health shares slide before the bell after Novo Nordisk ended its partnership with the telehealth platform that has been selling compounded obesity drugs over marketing concerns.

NOVO, LLY - Diabetes-related stocks may be in focus after updates at the American Diabetes Association conference. Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are among companies that provided data over the weekend.

LLY - The pharmaceutical company’s experimental weight-loss pill helped patients shed pounds without serious side effects in a clinical trial, burnishing the drug’s blockbuster potential in the company’s competition with Novo Nordisk A/S.

Novo Nordisk's new obesity drug shows impressive weight loss in trial, promising a market breakthrough – Bloomey

EL rises 1.8% in US premarket trading after Deutsche Bank upgrades the cosmetics company to buy from hold due to increasing evidence that the firm is diversifying beyond China for future growth.

Technology

AAPL: -20% YTD / 2nd worst start in decade plus... disappointment in Apple's AI advancements may pressure it to enhance hardware, as iPhone upgrades lag (Axios)

AI Wars: DeepSeek is accused by a senior US State Dept. official of providing assistance to China’s military and intelligence operations (Reuters)

AMD: upgrade details from Melius / PT $175 - citing the view that "many things have changed for the better since the beginning of the year." Investors are about to envision even bigger GPU figures in 2026-2028 given a "sustainable surge in inferencing"

ARKK: Cathie Wood's Ark Invest Adds Airbnb, AMD, Shopify To Portfolio, Slashes Stake In Circle Internet

DASH: +2.2% upgraded @ RayJ - Believes the synergy potential with Deliveroo is underappreciated at current share levels, forecasting mid-teens EBITDA accretion in 2026 and high-teens in 2027.

META: Zuck aggressively recruiting AI talent for Meta's Superintelligence lab, offering attractive packages

NVDA: Nvidia/Foxconn could deploy humanoid robots at an AI server factory in Houston (Reuters)

SMCI: -3.3% hit on offering; $2B of convert sr notes ... +13% last three week; flat since mid-May

Industrials

TSLA - Shares rose after the EV maker quietly launched its long-awaited driverless taxi service in Austin, Texas, over the weekend. The limited rollout features Model Y vehicles running on Tesla’s Full Self-Driving software, which uses a camera-based AI system, unlike rivals that rely on lidar or radar.

Dow, Inc. (DOW) downgraded to underperform from market perform at BMO

FMC Corp (FMC) upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Wells Fargo

Solar sector (FSLR, ENPH, SEDG, RUN, ARRY), President Trump said on Truth Social Sunday, "I HATE “GREEN TAX CREDITS” IN THE GREAT, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL. They are largely a giant SCAM. I would much prefer that this money be used somewhere else, including reductions.