Calendar

This Week – Scattered earnings with NVDA Wednesday post close being the big show. Fed Governors will be doing some post Jackson Hole cleanup.

Monday – Durable Goods

Tuesday – Case Shiller Housing Prices

Wednesday – NVDA earnings matter most. NTAP, CRWD, CRM, and HPQ report as well.

Thursday – GDP Second Release. Jobless Claims, BBY, DG, ADSK, and ULTA report.

Friday – PCE (this one matters) 

Torrent Trading Observations

• Another quiet weekend  - NVDA Wed key. (also get CRM DELL this week)

• Powell clearly signaled that the pivot now to jobs making claims more of a focus with unemployment numbers next week key ahead of Sept meeting

• Certainly seems like 50bps on the table, but we wait for the data

• 5670 resistance and keep an eye on the smalls - IWM $225 major resistance.  5550 first support with 5490 more significant ....

Upgrades – AMH, BJ, CPT, KYMR, MAA, TGT

Downgrades – ENVA, EQR, INVH, K, MLTX, OCSL, PINC

Markets YTD

• DOW +9.17%

• S&P +18.80%

• Nasdaq +21.07%

• Bitcoin +52.98%

   

Futures

• DOW +61

• S&P +8

• Nasdaq -23

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

July Powerboat Retail down 8% per Baird.  Look for used boats for sale this fall.

BJ – The wholesaler caught an upgrade to neutral at JPM and reiterate buy at GS.

IEP – Icahn lower on news they have enlisted Jeffries to do a $400MM open market sale.

LULU – PT cut at Telsey.

W slips 1% after Argus Research downgraded the online home-furnishings retailer to hold, saying “the company’s prospects appear muted amid the current environment of high interest rates and fewer home sales.”

AFRM - +3%, positive earnings preview from JMP.

JNJ is negotiating with holdouts to its $6.5B talc settlement proposal – Reuters 

LLY donanemab Alzheimer’s treatment is expected to be blocked for use in the UK by the country’s NHS – Reuters 

NVO could be at risk as Medicare will likely include Ozempic on the list of medicines subject to price negotiation for 2027, although the ultimate impact on the company may not be as severe as feared – Reuters

GH - slips 6% after filing an open-market agreement to sell as much as $400 million in shares via Jefferies.

Technology

AAPL will launch its new iPhone (along w/updated AirPods and Apple Watches) on Tues 9/10 - Bloomey; also… AAPL will dial back the amount of money spent on movies following a string of disappointments - NYT

META has cancelled plans for a high-end mixed-reality headset intended to compete against Apple’s Vision Pro as the firm shifts away from building headset hardware and toward licensing its software to others – The Information

MSFT will host a meeting next month with cybersecurity firms with access to the core of Windows to discuss ways to prevent a repeat of the CrowdStrike outage – Bloomey

INTC is working w/MS to defend against potential activist campaigns (although no new campaign has formally been launched) - CNBC

UBER fined $325M in Europe over driver data transfers to the US Dutch watchdog fines Uber $324 million for alleged inadequate protection of drivers' data (msn.com) [msn.com]

Industrials 

Canada’s rail workers were ordered back on the job and forced to engage in binding arbitration to resolve their labor dispute - Bloomey

Canada’s rail workers were ordered back on the job and forced to engage in binding arbitration to resolve their labor dispute - Bloomey

The following chart from DATATREK newsletter shows output/hour for the US workforce from 1960 to the present, indexed to 100 at the start of the time series. Noted the compounded annual growth rates (CAGR) for each decade as well as the aggregate CAGR of 2.0 percent for this 64-year span.