Trading Observations

• Little incremental

• Jobless claims rose 5k to 219k in Feb. 15 week compared with median est. 215k,

• BABA higher on numbers fueling KWEB

• 6155 resistance vs. 6075 first support with 6000 significant support

• History suggests bull has more room https://tinyurl.com/yc58erhj [tinyurl.com] 

• Though homebuilders rolling over https://tinyurl.com/mtth6fm2 [tinyurl.com]

• Valuation at the fore https://tinyurl.com/yz38ftwu [tinyurl.com]

   

Futures

DOW -141

S&P -17

Nasdaq -50

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Financials / Retail / Healthcare

GS on Fed Minutes – They now expect treasury run off to end in May vs. June previously. They still see Fed Funds in restrictive territory but want to take a “careful approach” for now.

RJF – Client assets up 15% y/y on strong equity markets. Cash balances dwindling, just like they are at Schwab (this is bad, banks want cash).

DNB – Down 5% - Q/Q revenue growth of 0.2% isn’t going to do it in this tape.

TRUP – Down 14% - This is a medical insurance company for cats and dogs. It is still growing, but growth is fading as enrolled pets were up 5% y/y. The company makes a lot in EBITDA, but loses money on the net income line, so shareholders are revolting.

WMT falls 8% after forecasting lower-than-expected profit for the full year, citing an uncertain economic environment. Some retail stocks decline after Walmart’s profit outlook: Costco (COST) -1.4%, Dollar Tree (DLTR) -1%, Target (TGT) -2%

HLF jumps 26% after the nutrition company reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share that beat consensus estimates. The company named Stephan Gratziani as its CEO.

SHAK rises 11% after the burger chain said January comparable sales rose 3.7% y/y, despite an estimated 150-200 basis point traffic headwind from unfavorable weather and the LA wildfires.

Technology

BABA soar 10% after the Chinese e-commerce giant reported sales that beat estimates, driven by two core units — the domestic e-commerce business of Taobao and Tmall, as well as its closely watched cloud arm.

AMPL: +14% as bullish forecast spurs multiple upgrades; initial 2025 guidance implies 10% year-on-year growth at midpoint, versus consensus 7.6%. Strong 4Q24 results point to a faster than previously anticipated top line acceleration.

AMZN: retail CEO, Doug Herrington, told employees to keep reducing costs so it can fund "big investments in big new businesses," according to a recording of last month's internal all-hands meeting that Business Insider's Eugene Kim obtained

CVNA: -9% expectations high / positioning elevated into print (huge move off Hindenburg lows in early Jan)vague guide but 4Q EBITDA missed buy side expectations driven by lower than expected Retail GPU ; lower gross profit per vehicle and shrinking wholesale volumes ... six week winning streak coming into print

LRCX: +2% extending breakout post bullish Investor Day - focus was on [Serviceable Available Market] expansion that outgrows WFE, share gain with technology inflections, and robust CSBG growth .... Susquehanna upgrading to Positive; Mizuho lifting PT

META: profit taking post historic run; lot more ?s ystrdy versus Tuesday; not surprising given it remains favored long within megacap complex

NVDA/SMCI: Jensen, Charles today @ 1pm ET - https://www.ddn.com/beyond-artificial/ [ddn.com]

NXPI: +2.4% another upgrade .. Citi saying Analog Devices results indicate that recovery is imminent in the analog market - "while we believe there is still downside from the Automotive end market, the recovery in the Industrial end market should partially offset it"

PLTR falls 4% and appear set to extend losses after dropping 10% on Wednesday on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s plan to reduce projected US military spending by 8% over the next five years.

PLTR/KARP: company informed the SEC that CEO Alex Karp adopted a new Rule 10b5-1 trading plan to sell up to 9.98 million shares by Sept. 12, potentially worth $1.23 billion, replacing a larger previous plan

ROKU: +2% Jefferies upgrading - believes the bear case has weakened, saying Roku outgrew many advertising peers in the Q4

SNOW: breakout AI play ... catching another upgrade - BTIG raising to Buy as firm's recent fieldwork is pointing towards an improving demand backdrop in calendar 2025; thinks Snowpark will become a more meaningful growth driver in FY26

Industrials 

Auto OEMs – Mercedes trading down 4% after the automaker posted weak 2025 passenger car guidance

Celanese (CE) downgraded to sector perform from outperform at RBC Capital Markets

General Motors (GM) remains committed to all-electric future even if US ends consumer tax breaks – FT

International Flavors (IFF) downgraded to sell at CFRA

SolarEdge (SEDG) upgraded to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley and downgraded to underperform at Northland and underperform at BMO

Trimble (TRMB) upgraded to strong buy at CFRA

EV WINTER: Nikola (-12%) Goes Bankrupt, Capping Troubled EV Maker’s Long Slide

PWR gains 6% after posting 4Q profit that beat estimates.