Morning Note

Trading Observations

• Tariff talk dominating again

• Canada the headliner but again not in effect until Aug 1st (personally think 0 chance Canada at 35% come August)

• Every dip has been bought, and would think we try and rally again today

• Yday the lowest SPY volume day since June 9th

• Earnings will start to dominate next week

• Consumer better than people expected? DAL yday morning and LEVI last night saying consumer strong

• Also, Levi's encouragingly said it was going to absorb some of the tariff costs although its assumptions are a 30% China tariff and 10% ROW which may prove a bit low 

• Closed just above 6275 resistance and that will be the first hurdle on a rally attempt

• 6225/6175 support levels to watch

• Oscillators pushed into more extreme overbought territory

• Smalls breaking out relative to QQQ https://tinyurl.com/yxjdehvu [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW -273

S&P -34

Nasdaq -104

Charts/Sentiment

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

US banks are poised to show gains from a tumultuous period that followed President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, with executives expected to go further and suggest how such hauls might grow even more thanks to deregulation. 

MSTR - Strategy gained 3% in premarket trading after Bitcoin reached a new all-time high, while CoreWeave fell 3.7% after receiving analyst downgrades following an announced deal to acquire Core Scientific earlier this week. 

GOOS - rises 1.1% after it was upgraded to equal-weight from underweight at Barclays, with risk/reward for the outerwear maker now seen as more balanced.

AMC are up 7.7% after Wedbush upgraded the theater operator to outperform from neutral.

CAPR tumble 37% after the biotech firm failed to win an FDA approval for Deramiocel, the company’s candidate for the treatment of cardiomyopathy associated with Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

ILMN slip 1.6% after Scotiabank cut the stock to sector perform from sector outperform, marking the gene-sequencing company’s second downgrade this week.

OSCR are down 2.3% after Wells Fargo Securities downgraded the health insurer to underweight from equal-weight.

SOFI - TD Cowen analyst initiated coverage a hold recommendation, writing that the fintech company has a strong growth engine but is currently fairly valued.

Technology

JPM - US Internet 2Q25 Preview deck ahead of NFLX kicking off Internet earnings next Thursday, 7/17. Our quarterly presentation includes our views on investor sentiment & expectations, key debates & focus areas, & thoughts across our Internet coverage universe.

Top Picks: AMZN, GOOGL, META, SPOT, PINS, UBER

TXN rises 0.5% as TD Cowen lifts the stock to buy from hold, saying the chipmaker is uniquely positioned as industry cycle improves.

UBER -1.1% Robotaxi expansion headlines gaining some attention (Uber up 15% over last 3 weeks) …. Devitt cont to flag AV dirsupting the status quo for Uber/Lyft -

NVDA - Huawei AI Chip Redesign Aims to Break Nvidia’s China Dominance

Software NO BOUNCE in yesterday (few charts below) Semis > Software by 4% - led by AMD (upgrade), NVDA (record close), Memory in beast mode (STX, SNDK, LRCX, MU, WDC well bid) ….

Industrials 

AerSale (ASLE) downgraded to hold from buy at Truist

Albemarle (ALB) downgraded to sell from neutral at UBS

Astronics (ATRO) upgraded to buy from hold at Truist

Defense Tech/Drone stocks trading higher - Fox News reported that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued orders to ramp up production and deployment of drones – AVAV +4.3%, KTOS +3.3%

Expeditors International (EXPD) downgraded to underperform at BofA

Federal Signal (FSS) downgraded to sector weight from overweight at KeyBanc

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS

GXO Logistics (GXO) upgraded to buy from hold at Truist

Nutrien (NTR) downgraded to hold at Jefferies

TE Connectivity Plc (TEL) upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi

Visteon (VC) upgraded to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs

Latest Media

$PLTR and early 2000s $CSCO look very similar.

$PLTR trading 4-5x the valuation of peak $CSCO.