Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
August 11, 2025

Morning Note

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Calendar

This Week – Largely devoid of earnings. CAH, CSCO, DE, AMAT and PANW if you’re squinting. CPI Tuesday is the lead dog.

Tuesday – CPI – 2.8% consensus, 2.67% last are the benchmarks for judging. 2.9% and the market is in trouble, but all else is positive.

Wednesday – Three Fed Speakers

Thursday – PPI, Jobless Claims (watching these more closely after bad NFPs)

Friday – Retail Sales, Trump with Putin.

Trading Observations

Waiting on CPI tomorrow
CTAs buying bonds this week... Let's hope benign https://tinyurl.com/57kkhsvd [tinyurl.com]
NVDA/AMD on watch today, reportedly handing over 15% of revenue generated by sales of AI chips to China to US government https://tinyurl.com/52t6c575 [tinyurl.com]
Earnings winding down a very strong season https://tinyurl.com/mk3wj54h [tinyurl.com]
Not surprising tech driving https://tinyurl.com/bdde7bb8 [tinyurl.com]
And QQQ new relative high vs. SPX https://tinyurl.com/5ycj4mrm [tinyurl.com]
6340 support vs. 6400 resistance
Hedge funds most short small caps in history https://tinyurl.com/mv9jutxn [tinyurl.com]
Top 10% of US stocks now 76% of market, most ever, the question is how does it resolve? https://tinyurl.com/mubakd86 [tinyurl.com]
Mortgage debt now less than 1/3 of value of housing market, lowest since 1950s https://tinyurl.com/jb7t7283 [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW +60

S&P +3

Nasdaq +1

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

VIX

Bitcoin

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

Crypto strong to start the day ~+3%. BMNR is the new hot Ethereum trade and its up 11%.

UPST – Down 7% on a $500MM convertible offering.

FNMA, FMCC – Fannie and Freddi up 9% on talk they may be IPO listed under the ticker MAGA. Fannie and Freddie would need soooo much money to be truly private companies given they sit on trillions in loans, and the slightest hiccup flips the current equity pile to a quick zero.

PTLO – Up 5% on insider buying ($500k).

ELF – Up 4% on a MS upgrade.

XYZ – Positive chatter at Baird on improving margins and balance sheet.

MO could benefit as the US Postal Service cracks down on the shipment of illegal vaping devices – Reuters

TGT is searching for a new CEO and COO Michael Fiddelke is a lead candidate for the job, although some investors want to see an outside takeover from Brian Cornell – WSJ

LULU Tracker - Baird lowering PT $260 from $340. Our checks in July/FQ2 showed very positive trends in product flow/newness, but, like June, sluggish traffic and sell-through indicators and an acceleration in markdown breadth, suggesting seasonal newness hasn't been enough to drive incremental growth (in the U.S.) amid a tougher category/ macro/competitive environment

Technology

Semis > Software: rough stretch for Software in Q3 ... SOX +2.4% versus IGV -5.3% as T+1 reactions in SW have been terrible (NOW, FTNT, DDOG, HUBS, CFLT to name a few, etc)

NVDA -0.4%) and (AMD -1.1%) shares fall after they agreed to pay 15% of their revenues from Chinese AI chip sales to the US government in a deal to secure export licenses, an unusual arrangement that may unnerve both US companies and Beijing.

MU – Sees Q4 revs $11.1B to $11.3B saw $10.4B to $11B

AAPL: +13.3% last week - its best in years ...... positioning #1 driver; tariff winner from loser quickly ... read AAPL accounts for 93% of S&P return MTD

ADBE - Down 1.2% in premarket trading, after Melius Research downgraded the software company to sell from hold.

AI Frenzy: AI-specific hedge funds are taking in more assets and growing in popularity (WSJ)

AI - down big on negative preannouncement.

INTC - CEO visiting White House today following recent Trump call for him to resign.

GOOGL : Reviewing Proposed Remedies Ahead of Court Decision ….GOOGLE seems ripe for a big move to me.. FLAT on a 12 month % gain basis.. Last 13 times in history it was so.. the stock had a big move

MU: +13% last week .... strong in alpha to close out last week .... pos read from Kioxia; tariff news last week a positive; mgmt on road in coming weeks with both KeyBanc/Citi

NVDA: Chinese state media says Nvidia’s H20 chips aren’t safe, nor are they technologically advanced or environmentally friendly (CNBC)

PLTR: RSI @ 80 .. shrs surged 20%+ last week post print; up 5 out of 6 weeks

TSMC: expansion of CoWoS advanced chip packaging capacity appears to have hit some turbulence, media report, with the AP5 complex in the Central Taiwan Science Park set to merge operations & personnel at plants AP5A and AP5B due to falling capacity utilization; while at the AP8 complex in the Southern Taiwan Science Park, much equipment has arrived, but installation has been delayed to the end of 2025.

Industrials

AAON – Q2 missed, Q3/Q4/FY Revenue guidance lowered, stock trading down 10% - AAON is a datacenter HVAC play, so lots of Mo in the stock.

Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS) initiated outperform at RBC; $159 PT

Cummins (CMI) upgraded to outperform from peer perform at Wolfe Research

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; $48 PT

Generac (GNRC) upgraded to hold from underperform at Jefferies; $200 PT

Lithium Stocks Jump Pre-Bell After CATL Suspends Chinese Project. Stocks to watch: ALB, ATLX, SGML, SLI.

Nutrien (NTR) upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan; $68 PT

Orion SA (OEC) downgraded to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan; $9 PT