Morning Note

Calendar

This Week – NVDA earnings, software earnings, and PCE are the must watch events. Retail earnings are the undercard.

Tuesday – Durable Goods, Home Price Index.

Wednesday – NVDA earnings PM. HPQ and CRWD as well.

Thursday – Personal Consumption, Waller Speaks (possible next Fed Head). Earnings – DG, BBY, ADSK, ULTA, DELL

Friday – PCE (Fed cares here on inflation)

Trading Observations

• Pullback yday on very light volume so felt like more consolidation day than a cause for concern to me https://tinyurl.com/2h2rxh5n [tinyurl.com]

• Trump firing Cook getting attention, but does sound like issues so after people digest really a non-event?  

• 6400 support vs. 6480 resistance

• Homebuilders with a golden cross https://tinyurl.com/mweawtja [tinyurl.com]

• Come on smalls https://tinyurl.com/364kar9v [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW -26

S&P -4

Nasdaq -30

Charts/Sentiment

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

LLY – Up 3% on another positive trial for its pill form of the GLP1 drug.

Baird upgrades GOOS, VFC, and RCKY to outperform and puts NKE on their conviction list calling for better futures into 2026 for the lot.

Restaurants – Survey work showing August down a little y/y.

Powerboat and RV Surveys – US powerboat retail down 10% in July, down 10% YTD. July RV shipments down 6% y/y.

DKS – Earnings previews look like they will likely hit comps, but given the recent move in DKS +32%, the tactical bar is quite high.

DJT – The Trump media SPAC is now getting into the crypto treasury buying game. Stock up 9%.

Technology

AI: Nvidia print ~36 hrs away ... cant come soon enough as AI narrative has shifted from top line growth to cash flow / ROI

AI IMPACT: AI negatively impacting job prospects for US entry-level workers, with 16% drop in employment for young workers (Axios, Bloomberg)

AAPL: said to have told the Indian government that it has no intention of slowing down its expansion in the country

AMD: +3% on Truist upgrade on AI traction - checks over the last month have increasingly noted that hyperscalers now are working with AMD in a partnership manner; notes that contacts indicate that hyperscale datacenter customers are now "expressing true interest in deploying AMD at scale," sets a calendar year 2027 EPS estimate at $7.89 IBM Quantum-Centric Supercomputing Partnership

AVGO: Susquehanna positive

CMCSA/DLR/T: Citi adds upside 90-day short-term view for Digital Realty, AT&T, Comcast

CRM: Opco cautious checks point to softening business trends for Salesforce and limited near-term catalysts, beyond better second half of the year enterprise IT spending seasonal

ETSY: stock hammered Monday, -8% post PDD call ... Temu business has resumed shipping goods directly from Chinese factories to American consumers, and plans to ramp back up its US advertising spend

FOXA: YouTube warned that Fox channels could be pulled from YouTube TV on Wed if the two sides can’t reach a new carriage deal (Reuters)

GOOGL: cont to wait for Mehta decision .... powerful move to highs on strengthening AI narrative/GCP momentum ... a name where both HF/LO community UW for better part of the last 5+ years (Meta on other side of pair)

IPO: Klarna next month will resume plans for a US IPO and hopes to achieve a valuation of $13-14B (Reuters)

SATS: +83% AT&T to buy spectrum licenses from Echostar for ~$23B cash ... T +1% AT&T says the deal will significantly strengthen its low-band and mid-band spectrum holdings, bolstering its cellular and fiber businesses. As a result of this transaction, AT&T expects to accelerate and expand availability of its advanced fixed wireless home internet service – AT&T Internet Air

SMTC: (11% Short Interest) modest upside in FQ2/Jul on EPS (41c vs St 40c) and sales ($257.6M vs St $256M), and FQ3 guide is right inline (see EPS/rev of 44c/$266M vs St 44c/$265M

Industrials 

Albemarle (ALB) upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS; $89 PT

Ecolab (ECL) initiated market perform at Raymond James

Generac Holdings (GNRC) downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi

NAPCO Security Technologies (NSSC) upgraded to buy at Craig-Hallum Capital

Veralto (VLTO) initiated market perform at Raymond James

OKLO – Initiated Buy at BofA.

Latest Media

$WMT - We are not buyers.

5% top-line growth.

3% NI margins.

Price: 40x earnings

No thank you!