Calendar

This Week – Today feels like we watch to see if this rally can hold after a rough finish to Friday. The week will be owned by NVDA earnings Wednesday post and 15 or so Fed speakers that likely cancel each other out.

Wednesday – NVDA Earnings Post, Home Sales

Thursday – Jobless Claims, Durable Goods, Home Sales

Friday – PCE. Trade Balance could be interesting.

Trading Observations

• Finally the bounce... buying ahead of NVDA tonight as high beta tech that took a right hook to the chin looks to outperform today.

• Some better news in tech with INTU + WDAY higher on earnings, SMCI filing, and META talking $200B data center project hopefully stabilizing AI with NVDA earnings tonight (coincidentally at same time starting to see a positive divergence) https://tinyurl.com/386e65dp [tinyurl.com]

• Washington passed first hurdle on reconciliation bill to extend tax rates (still a long way to go, but not certain to even get this far so a sign something may get done)

• 6007 first hurdle with 6075 more significant

• Oscillators remain slightly oversold, not likely to get deeper oversold until next week so will see if rally has legs

• II Bulls down to 44% from 49% (below 40% contrarian)

Futures

DOW +61

S&P +24

Nasdaq +127

NVDA tonight

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Financials / Retail / Healthcare

LMND – New name insurance player down 14% on weaker than expected outlook.

PYPL – Investor Day Recaps out. JPM thinks PYPL is a sleeping giant that the new management team could unleash.

RVs – January RV shipments up 22% y/y on a very low bar.

LULU – Downgraded to hold at Erste.

AAP slips 3% after the auto-parts retailer projected that comparable sales would fall more than Wall Street anticipated in the current quarter.

TGT Announces Strategic Partnership with Champion, Offering Stylish Activewear and Sporting Goods for All

CAVA shares rise 3% after the Mediterranean restaurant chain reported fourth-quarter adjusted Ebitda and comparable sales that came ahead of estimates.

Technology

APP – This headline takes the cake - AppLovin Corp. shares fall as much as 8.2% in premarket trading Wednesday after Fuzzy Panda and Culper Research each put out negative reports against the company

KWEB +4% in pre led by China EVs, BEKE, JD, BABA, PDD, etc …. Overnight look @ HSTECH surge to new highs for move:

BABA Confirms open sourcing four models that are part of its Wan2.1 series, the latest version of the company’s foundational AI model that can generate images and video from text and image inputs – CNBC

DeepSeek likely to release next-generation R2 model before May; cuts off-peak pricing by up to 75% - Reuters

AI BUILD: META in talks to build a massive new data center that could cost >$200B (The Information)

AMZN: hopes a massive investment in robotics and autonomation will yield significant cost savings (FT);

CART: -11% GTV for qrtr beat BUT transaction revs and GP slightly below street. EBITDA guide below ($220-$230M vs street at $237M); GTV guide mid single digits vs buyside +8% to 10% - may continue to face take-rate pressure from lower delivery fees in the near term amid slowing user and order-frequency growth .... Bulls think T+1 reaction more function of elevated expectations vs shift in fundamntals

CRM: #s 4:01pm / 5pm; Q4 ERP0: 10.6% vs street at 9.4%; Q1 ERP0: 9.5% vs street at 9%; Fy '26 Revs: 9% vs street at 9%; OPM guide: 34% vs street at 33.8% .... higher post flurry of better SW numbers ... positioning 7/8 out of 10; favored play on AI agent theme

NVDA: #s 4:20pm / 5pm; Q1 Revs: $24B vs street at $23.8B (typical beat = $22B); Q1 GM: 75.1% vs street at 73%

SNOW: #s 4:05pm / 5pm; Q4 Product Revs: 27% - 28% vs street at 24%; Q1 Product Revs: Inline with street at 22%; Fy '25 Prod Rev guide: 22-23% vs street at 23.5%

META: losing streak at six; erasing gains seen during prior 14 days of the 20 session rally

SMCI: +25% surge after filing delayed reports ... Filed 10-K; hit at 4:44pm ET. 'Have not remediated any material weakness'; Q2 net sales below ... the widowmaker

WDAY: +12% ahead of buyside / expectations werent that demanding; solid Q as cRPO came in at 15%+ above 14% y/y bogey. Guiding Q1 sub revs in line at 13%; company continues to focus on driving profitability

ZI: +12% beat + raise - strongest upside in 2-plus years and early signals suggesting 2025 guide conservative. This is a step towards improving execution and return to pos growth

Industrials 

American Air (AAL) Raised to Buy at Redburn; PT $24

DY announces authorization of a new $150M stock repurchase program.

FTAI's Strategic Capital Initiative secures commitment for $2.5B of asset-level debt financing.

GM board approves new share repurchase plan, including $2B ASR, and higher rate for future dividends.

Lennox (LII) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $702

Lucid (LCID) Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $1

MMM reiterates 2025 guidance and provides outlook through 2027 at Investor Day.

FSLR helped by better sales, sales guidance and warranty charges.

NVDA held $125 / made higher lows going back a month … #s 4:20pm / 5pm; Q1 Revs: $24B vs street at $23.8B (typical beat = $22B); Q1 GM: 75.1% vs street at 73%