Trading Observations

• Expect a quiet couple of days ahead of Fed Wed

• PPI caused a bit of consternation, but under the hood encouraging sonusvarghese [x.com] 

• Flash PMIs after the open will get some attention after Europe ones  mixed

• MU earnings Wed  - technical bull case for semis laid out JSpitTrades [x.com] 

• 6085 remains formidable resistance, 6010 support  

• BITCOIN: surges above $106,000 after Trump suggests strategic reserve plan (Reuters)

• Breadth now negative 10 days in a row - only the 10th time since 1926 - some data - 6 months meh, but 12 months very good WillieDelwiche [x.com]

Futures

DOW +100

S&P +20

Nasdaq +107

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Technology

NDX 100 Adds: AXON, MSTR, PLTR will be added to the Nasdaq 100 before the open on 12/23 (pretty well known)

MSTR - MicroStrategy leads fellow cryptocurrency-exposed stocks higher on optimism about the company’s upcoming inclusion of the company in the Nasdaq 100 Index. Bitcoin hit a fresh record.

AAPL: plans to introduce new iPhones (including thinner models and foldable ones as well) as the firm prepares to offer more radical design changes to help accelerate growth (WSJ)

AI headlines: (1)Michael Dell says xAI’s new Colossus supercomputer is filled with DELL equipment (“It looks like a Dell commercial”) (WSJ) ... (2)Anthropic/Claude – while OpenAI and its ChatGPT dominate the AI narrative, many tech insiders prefer Anthropic’s Claude (NYT)

AMZN – Pt raised to $264 from $230 at UBS

AVGO - Broadcom is up 3.5% before the bell, building on Friday’s gain of 24%

AMD: alpha laggard Fri within AI / semis - more share for MRVL/AVGO means less to around for AMD — investors continue to use it as a funding short

MU: Citi remains bullish on Micron's DRAM recovery given supply/demand dynamics for 2025. "Expects Co to post results/guide slightly below consensus, driven by legacy DRAM weakness.

MCHP – Downgraded at BofA

RDDT: -2.6% just seeing this on Bloomberg ... Reddit Announces Confidential Submission of Draft Registration Statement Related to Proposed Public Offering

SMCI: -13% report looking to raise fresh capital .... While an internal probe showed no evidence of wrongdoing in the events that led it to delay filing accounts w/ the SEC, it still has yet to publish them. It has an extension until Feb. 25, which helps it avoid the immediate threat of delisting from the Nasdaq

Social Media / TikTok (META SNAP PINS): TikTok – the two leaders of the House’s Committee on China warned Google and Apple to be prepared to remove TikTok from their app stores on Jan 19 (CNN)

Software Raise: Databricks will soon close a massive VC funding round, raising >$9.5B at a valuation of >$60B (Reuters)

TER, KEYS, NTAP, OKTA – Upgraded at JPM.

PLTR - Red Cat Holdings shares jump as much as 22% in premarket trading on Monday after the drone tech company announced a strategic partnership with Palantir Technologies.

• The partnership will look to “integrate Visual Navigation software (VNav) into Red Cat’s Black Widow drones and to deploy Warp Speed, Palantir’s manufacturing OS,” the company said in a statement

Industrials 

Adient (ADNT) downgraded to equal weight from overweight at Wells Fargo Securities

Eagle Materials (EXP) downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies

Ford Motor (F) downgraded to underperform at Jefferies

Honeywell International (HON) explores strategic alternatives; continues review of transformational portfolio actions - HON announced that its board continues the comprehensive business portfolio evaluation launched earlier this year by Chairman and CEO Vimal Kapur to explore additional strategic alternatives for unlocking shareholder value, including the potential separation of its Aerospace business

Installed Building Products (IBP) downgraded to in line from outperform at Evercore

Keysight Technologies (KEYS) upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPM

Masco (MAS) downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies

Teradyne (TER) upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPM

Topbuild (BLD) downgraded to in line from outperform at Evercore

Trimble (TRMB) upgraded to outperform at Wolfe Research