Calendar

Thursday – PPI, ADBE earnings

Friday – Import/Export Prices, U of M Sentiment

Trading Observations

• Follow through bid early with Smalls outperforming

• Growth concerns alleviated by Tech (NVDA)?  Thank you Jensen

• For context, S&P 500 EPS is expected to grow 14% on 6% rev growth next year.  Consensus expects 29% growth from Tech on 19% rev growth

• Likely to remain overly sensitive to good and bad headlines from the space

• Some potential relief, though?  Gas Prices + Mortgage Rates near two-year lows

• Per BB, depressed Oil prices argue against global military escalations and inflation

• Managed to regain the 50-day avg and 98-unit avg.  5600 is resistance

Futures

DOW +39

S&P +6

Nasdaq -1

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

Odds of 50 bp September rate cut fade, but market still pricing ~140 bp easing by end of Jan-2025 - Bloomey

Baird on Restaurants – August comps improving over July. DPZ did have some subdued macro comments. They remain outperform 10 names in the space.

MasterCard – Agrees to buy a Cyber Defense fund for $2.6B called Recorded Future. MA is worth $460B and has plenty of cash for it.

JPM, BAC – Said to curb young banker hours to 80 a week. Meanwhile Jamie Dimon was on the hill working with budgeteers.

PRU – To take on $6B in pension obligations from IBM.

SIG – Up 13% on nice earnings beat and decent sized short interest.

Technology

Image of Jensen yesterday presenting at GS Tech Conf, looking at the NVDA stock moving higher.

NVDA: +0.8% trading right on 50D; shrs ystrdy +8% on HEAVY volume; best single-day move since July 31 ... Jensen presented yesterday at GS conf. Overall bullish keynote - talking ROI, moat, demand; reit Co will begin shipping Blackwell-based products in FY4Q25

Hit last 30 min of trading day, More fuel for the AI hype… Bloomberg reported OpenAI valued at ~$150B in latest fundraising round. (NVDA +13% this week)

AI Yesterday

ADBE #s tonight / 7% implied move (stock +26% since last print) ... bulls focused on 2H growth inflection driven by pricing / AI portfolio 

ARM: +10% yesterday, now +20% week to date vs Apple +1% over past three days. iPhone16 (and onward) use of V9 chips good for ASP/royalties.

AMZN: up 4 out of 5; strong move this week (slight uptick in volumes) above 50D/100D - new AWS CEO accelerating commentary fueling move along w/ investors dipping toe back into tech following mutliple drawdowns seen over the past six weeks

GTLB: CFO sells ~$900k stock

MU: -3% on BNP downgrade - $88 bid current (stock held mid-$80s both in early Aug/Sept, support level to watch) .... "Micron will underperform its AI peers through 2025 as HBM capacity oversupply leads to a faster than expected market correction of conventional DRAM selling prices"

MSFT - to cut 650 support jobs In Xbox Games Unit- bloomey

ROKU shares are up 2.9% after Wolfe Research upgraded the streaming-video platform company to outperform from peer perform.

Industrials 

Alaska Air Group (ALK) guides Q3 EPS $2.15-2.25 vs prior guidance $1.40-1.60 and FactSet $1.61. Stock is bid +5% pre-mkt.

DAL - DELTA AIR SEES FY ADJ EPS AT OR ABOVE $6.50, SAW $6 TO $7

General Motors (GM) and Hyundai Motor Company have signed an agreement to explore future collaboration across key strategic areas including collaboration on vehicles and clean-energy technologies.

Norfolk Southern (NSC) terminates CEO Alan Shaw for cause, appoints CFO Mark George as CEO and President. See Baird commentary below.

DOW shares drop 2.9% after the chemical company cut its third-quarter net sales forecast to a level below the average analyst estimate.