Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
October 21, 2025

Morning Note

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Trading Observations

Very quiet as earnings start to ramp today
Trump continues to express optimism on China deal ahead of Xi meeting next week
Gold and bitcoin both getting hit hard
Closed above 6720 (admittedly lowest volume since late Aug), 6765 in sight and seems likely we push on vs. 6650 and 6550 support
Nazz bigger move off the lows than even 2000 https://tinyurl.com/24pwd9ac [tinyurl.com]
Interesting... "Discretionary investors are now positioned for negative earnings growth in Q3, even as it looks to be on track to pick up to the low double digits, in line with our forecast of 16.4%." https://tinyurl.com/6k32mz2y [tinyurl.com]
More DEFENSIVE names above 50-day ma than offensive names https://tinyurl.com/yfb9zmcz [tinyurl.com]
China big spike in gold buying helps explain the move https://tinyurl.com/y3wxvtan [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW +1

S&P +1

Nasdaq -4

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Gold

Bitcoin

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

Crypto related all up big – BMNR up 5%, HOOD and COIN +3%.

WBD Up 8% – Warner Brothers out saying they are “putting themselves up for sale”. PARA has been trying for ages, and they clearly want the best price.

BYND – Beyond Meat up 40% as retail investors attempt to “Roaring Kitty” the $2 stock.

KO – Up 3% on solid earnings. Low sugar drinks and price hikes doing the heavy lifting.

HOLX – Up another 4% on official word Blackstone and TPG will buy the company for $79/sh.

GLXY Up 10% - Crypto name beats earnings.

PYPL: is set to increase its stake in Shopware from 11% to 41% after buying out Carlyle’s position in the company (Bloomberg)

EFX: +0.5% Q3 sales slight beat; EPS ahead. Q4 guide lackluster while lifting FY slighlty. Workforce Solutions +5%, non-mortgage +7%. International delivered 7% local currency revenue growth led by Latin America and Canada

ZION - Solid Q, fees flattish Q/Q but driving the beat vs. consensus. NIM strong with lackluster loan growth, credit looks very clean… ~$56M including one ~$50M loss. Stock +2.5% pre mkt

Technology

Chipmakers' AI chip demand is tightening supply of standard chips, driving prices up and boosting Samsung – Reuters

US business lobbying group, including Oracle and Amazon, urges Trump to suspend Affiliates Rule affecting US exports – Reuters

AMZN: Yipit revised Oct AWS to mid 19s MTD - now estimating 18.7% (from 17.8% in august qtd estimate). They also said 4QTD they last week publishing 18.7% its actually 19.5% QTD FTNT: Cleveland negative checks - Deal Slippage in EMEA & APAC Viewed Contributing to Weak End of Q Performance (follows positive checks back in September) AAPL: fresh highs ystrdy post flurry of positive checks + Loop upgrade.

AI/Greenlight Letter: finally read thru it ystrdy. Major focus on the current AI capex cycle - "much of the AI revenue comes simply from AI companies buying products and services from each other"

AMD: new highs as Cleveland was out positive saying Mi455 stronger across a broader set of customers outside of OpenAI. Specifically, they called out META and ORCL planning to ramp Mi450 early while MSFT has shown greater interest in the product

CVNA: JPM ups Carvana target, adds 'Positive Catalyst Watch' ... should report another beat and raise this quarter, further solidifying the co's operational moat in the sector; believes investor concerns around the health of consumer and auto credit are overblown. Carvana should "douse the flames" when reporting earnings

LBRT / Data Center play: Citi upgrading - sees the company winning data center contracts after its decision to raise power investment toward $1.5B. Citi believes Liberty will now benefit from accelerating AI investment

NFLX: +3.3% ystrdy ahead of tonight print. People looking for a slight beat vs St on rev growth for 3Q at ~17%+ y/y and the implied 4Q is ~16% y/y reported rev growth. Massive debate as to whether they will guide FY26 this quarter - St sits at +13% y/y reported rev growth for ’25 w/ some wondering if they could start it out at ~10-12% y/y .. other areas of focus: when will they raise prices and how quickly Advertising ramps ...... 7.4% implied move; conf call @ 445pm ET

RDDT: +3.2% gets 90-day upside Catalyst Watch @ Citi (believes the co's app and web redesign could drive user growth. In addition Citi's channel checks show contd monetization momentum for Reddit)

TXN: #s tonight / 5.8% implied move - expectations low overall for group / px action has been squeezy of late; note TSMC said last week that seeing some signs of recovery in non-AI ... Analog bears in general see lack of near-term catalysts, slowing Autos, China competition and tariff headwinds

VZ: downgraded at BNP - firm's "simplistic view" in the last few years has been "own wireless over cable," but the recent CEO change at Verizon has raised questions about strategy and how aggressively they will be willing to defend share

Planet Labs PBC shares (PL) are down 2.4%, with Citizens cautious about the satellite data company’s ability to keep rallying.

Industrials

Solar stocks (NXT +4.5%, RUN +7%, CSIQ -3%) are mixed as Citi analyst Vikram Bagri sees clarity from US policy changes leading to stronger outlooks for Nextracker and Sunrun and a weaker outlook for Canadian Solar.

Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) downgraded to underweight from equal weight at Wells Fargo Securities; $213 PT

Fluor Corp (FLR) trading +6% this morning - Yesterday, after the close, activist Starboard Value announced it had close to a 5% stake in Fluor; will press company to weigh options for NuScale (SMR) stake

Garrett Motion (GTX) initiated hold at Deutsche Bank; $14 PT

GE Aerospace (GE) – Q3 EPS beats, FY metrics raised, stock trading up 2%

General Motors (GM) – Q3 Revs/EPS/EBIT beats, FY EPS/EBIT/Operating CF raised guidance raised, stock trading up 9%

HAL rise 5.2% in premarket trading after the energy service company reported third-quarter revenue that beat the average analyst estimate as analysts see strength in North America and new opportunities from the VoltaGrid data center deal.

MMM beat & raise

NuScale Power (SMR) downgraded to underperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane; $25 PT also downgraded at Citi to Sell.

NuScale Power (SMR) initiated overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald; $55 PT. NuScale, the only company with NRC-approval for its small modular reactor designs, has shifted its focus toward securing a multi-gigawatt supply of module production to fulfill its 78-module demand funnel; thinks NuScale will be a big winner during the coming multi-trillion-dollar energy transition

Pentair (PNR) - Q3 beats on inline revs - Raises FY guide range by a nickel - Reports Q3 EPS $1.24 ex-items vs consensus $1.18 - FY Guidance (Dec 2025): EPS $4.85-4.90 ex-items vs prior guidance $4.75-4.85

NOC are down 1.3% after the defense contractor cut its full-year sales guidance to a range below what analysts expected. The stock had climbed 28% this year through Monday’s close.

RTX Corp (RTX) – Q3 beats across the board, FY EPS/Sales raised, stock trading up 5%