Calendar

This Week – Scattered earnings with NVDA Wednesday post close being the big show. Fed Governors will be doing some post Jackson Hole cleanup.

Thursday – GDP Second Release. Jobless Claims, BBY, DG, ADSK, and ULTA report.

Friday – PCE (this one matters)

Torrent Trading Observations

• Jobless claims are signaling that layoffs remain relatively low — only slightly above last year’s level. However, the elevated level of continuing claims suggests the labor market has been deteriorating and it’s getting harder to find jobs

• NVDA – Impressive numbers, however the beat and raise magnitude is subsiding.  Stock and many AI stocks are seeing slight pressure this am.

• Bostic says it “may be time” to cut rates, but he wants to see additional data before making a final determination – Bloomey

• Dovish inflation figures out in Europe (Spain and Germany) are bolstering sentiment and refocusing investor attention on the approaching rate cuts from both the ECB (9/12) and FOMC (9/18).

• Harris/Walz interview on CNN (which is due to air tonight). 

• 5670 resistance, 5585/5560 support....   

Futures

DOW +266

S&P +14

Nasdaq +48

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

AFRM - Up 24% on what the CEO deemed a “killer quarter” - Is buy now pay later growth a good thing for America? It’s probably no different than credit cards in reality, and AFRM is taking some share currently. UPST and AFRM have elevated Short Interests.

KSS – Downgraded to underweight at JPM on Same Store Sales miss. The stock rallied on the quarter because the short interest is massive.

CHWY – JPM reiterating outperform, raising PT to $33.

FL – GS recap says promotions to weigh on 2H margins.

GS on Storage Real Estate – Mostly tailwinds with lower rates, housing unlock, and a lack of new supply coming online.

Bitcoin related up ~2% on a snap back rally today.

PYPL expanding their partnership with Fiserv to streamline checkout experiences in the US

FIVE didn’t cut guidance by as much as feared

BBY beat & raise

BIRK falls 12% after the sandal maker reported 3Q revenue that just missed the average analyst estimate. Some analysts said expectations were high heading into results, with shares up about a third since its $1.5 billion initial public offering.

DG tumbles 24% after the company cut its full-year sales forecast, a sign that the discounter’s turnaround efforts may not be fending off competition.

AEO drops 9% after management narrowed the company’s operating income forecast for the full year.

Topgolf Callaway Brands (MODG) declines 3% after Jefferies downgraded the golf equipment company to hold, saying it was “increasingly uncertain” about the company’s prospects, in particular its debt levels.

Malibu Boats (MBUU) drops 8% after the company issued a net sales forecast for the fiscal year that trailed expectations. I mean, who’s buying boats right now?

Technology

NVDA - earnings report needed to be perfect for a stock that’s added nearly $2 trillion in market value in the past year. In the end, a broad beat still sparked a selloff. However, per the NVDA CEO, the next industrial revolution has begun. The move from general purpose computing to accelerated computing (now at a tipping points) => “AI factories.”Data Center rev strong up 16% q/q and 154% y/y. Driven by strong and accelerating demand for GenAI training and inference on the Hopper platform. NVDA lead material vs competitors (AMD, INTC’s traditional CPU franchise facing a material headwind). A little bearish commentary about end of the year gross margins as Blackwell ramps. Big question, when does Capex numbers from large companies (GOOG, MSFT, AMZN, META etc) slow? (If someone can let me know I would appreciate it )

AI related companies seeing a little pressure this morning on the hope of a better guide out of NVDA. 

CRWD - Q325 and FY25 model reset. $60M impact of the incident, street mainly saying not as bad as feared. The incident will affect the model for the next 12 months

AAPL has started mass producing the new iPhone lineup in India, including the Pro model, just days after commencing the process in China - Nikkei

OKTA drops 12% after some of the application software company’s outlook disappointed.

NTNX gains 16% after the company gave a full-year revenue forecast that came in stronger than expected

CRM rises 4% after the maker of customer management software reported 2Q results that beat expectations.

OpenAI – Another raise making the company’s valuation $100B. (ChatGPT)

Industrials 

Enphase Energy (ENPH) Rated New Market Perform at William Blair

First Solar (FSLR) Rated New Market Perform at William Blair

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) initiated buy at Clarksons Platou

GE Vernova (GEV) Rated New Outperform at William Blair

SolarEdge (SEDG) Rated New Market Perform at William Blair

Tesla (TSLA) initiated outperform at William Blair