Trading Observations

• Money rotation continues into KWEB (+3%) today again fueled by recent BABA earnings

• High fliers in tech names seeing a little profit taking, APP, U, RDDT, PLTR etc

• Investors are eagerly awaiting Nvidia's earnings report, which could reveal how the AI investment surge impacting US stocks [finimize.com] might unfold next…

• NVO – FDA saying we can get all the Ozempic we need!

• 6155 resistance vs. 6075 first support with 6000 significant support

• Solid week of events ahead: Mon night (SBAC, ZM); Tues morning (AMT, HD); Tues night (CART, INTU, KEYS, WDAY); Wed night (AI, CRM, EBAY, NVDA, PARA, SNOW, SNPS); Thurs morning (VST, WBD); and Thurs night (ADSK, DELL, HPQ, NTAP).

Futures

DOW -209

S&P +4

Nasdaq +76

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Financials / Retail / Healthcare

SQ/XYZ: -6% (I still don’t understand the ticker change) .... Square hit after no new upside in outlook; shr softness also driven by the weaker 1Q25 GP growth guide suggesting a steeper acceleration curve in 2025 than the market was expecting. Another quarter of plateaued MAU growth

CELH jumps 32% after the company said it would buy rival Alani Nutrition for $1.8 billion in cash and stock, including $150 million in tax assets.

DIS: ESPN decided to walk away from its MLB carriage agreement after 40 years (both sides have been unhappy w/each other while the shifting economics of the industry are forcing companies to be more disciplined in paying for content) (Variety)

UNH - UnitedHealth sinks 11.6% premarket on a report of a US probe into Medicare billing. Likely to test the bottom of the trading range dating back to 2022.  HUM also down in sympathy.

COIN - aid the Securities and Exchange Commission has agreed to drop its lawsuit that accused the largest US cryptocurrency trading platform of running an illegal exchange. The agreement is pending commissioner approval. 

NVO - FDA SAYS SHORTAGE OF NOVO'S OZEMPIC, WEGOVY IS `RESOLVED.  HIMS SHARES EXTEND DROP TO 14% AMID FDA WEGOVY COMMENTS

Technology

US-listed Chinese stocks rise after Alibaba’s earnings offered a fresh boost to the Chinese tech sector. Data center providers gain as Alibaba pledged to increase capital spending to support its AI ambitions: Vnet (VNET) +5%

AKAM: -12% mixed overall for Q; guide fell short

ALRM: upside in Q4 on EPS/revenue/EBITDA; '25 guide pretty much inline

AVGO: hit ystrdy ... Ming-Chi Kuo says Apple will transition to its in-sourced Wi-Fi chips for the iPhone at a faster pace, replacing silicon from Broadcom (9to5 Mac)

BKNG: +2% 13% RN growth vs bogey 10% and guide 6-8% and GB CC growth at +18% vs bogey 10-11% ... Capital return is being ramped - div +10% while a $20B buyback anncd; FY25 GB guided to at least 8% vs bogeys of HSD…stock is well-owned and expectations had risen after EXPE/ABNB

CRWD - Justice Dept., SEC Investigating CrowdStrike-Carahsoft Deal

MELI: +12% blowout; record Q to end '24. FY profit jumped to $1.9B in 2024 on $21B of rev, which rose 38% y/y ... Commerce and fintech units grew at a faster pace than expected, with unique active buyers on the commerce platform rising to 67 million people and monthly active fintech users jumping to 61 million

MSFT: CEO says there is an “overbuild” of AI systems, something he's happy about as this means there will be an excess of capacity that should drive prices down (Nadella says Microsoft will be leasing a lot of this excess capacity in the coming years rather than build so much of its own infrastructure)

NVDA: #s creeping up, Feb 26. Stock running into bit of supply @ $140 level (making lower highs since peaked in early Jan) ... Jensen says investors misinterpreted the meaning of DeepSeek, noting that the industry will still require significant amounts of computing power going forward (Business Insider)

RNG declines 4% after the communications software company gave an outlook that is weaker than expected for EPS and revenues.

SNOW breakout AI play - another wave of bullish checks (KeyB, Jefferies)

Industrials 

Parsons (PSN) downgraded to hold at TD Cowen

Rivian (RIVN) downgraded to neutral from overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald

TFI International (TFII) downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS

SOFTWARE EXPOSURE TO FEDERAL