Morning Note

Trading Observations

• CRDO and MDB with big numbers helping tech so bias 'should' be higher.  Can beaten down software start to catch a bid?

• The optical bundle should be strong to start (APH, AVGO, CIEN, CLS, COHR, CRDO, CSCO, FN, GLW, LITE, NVDA and TSM)

• Selling yday after the run last week not surprising, but no real damage

• 6770 support vs. 6850 resistance with 6870 more meaningful

• Another flurry of headlines about crypto weakness with Bitcoin now down over 30% from early October peak

• Would love another push from discretionary https://tinyurl.com/yrw782tt [tinyurl.com]

• Can argue, but the backdrop does suggest hard to be bearish https://tinyurl.com/4vmwswt7 [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW +24

S&P +27

Nasdaq +39

Charts/Sentiment

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

The Crypto downturn has wiped out almost $1B in levered bets https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-plunges-below-88-000-005308026.html [finance.yahoo.com]

AFRM/KLAR/BNPL loans: 7 state AGs asked for information from Klarna, Affirm, and Afterpay regarding their BNPL products (including the cost and structures of their installment loans) (Bloomberg)

GS Macro – Low end consumer pulling back, mid to high is fine.

Restaurant Comps – Look to have missed last week due to weather. November looks slightly weak.

Baird on Banks – Conference season starts next week. They think valuation implies only modest upside as the group is 8-10% below fair value. They are constructive on fundamentals.

SIG – Down 4% - Tough comp for the mall jeweler. Lower end exposure here.

FUN – Six Flags upgraded at Truist on new sense of urgency.

JANX – Down 41% - Today’s drug miss loser

Technology

ALAB: +8% huge alpha outperformer into AWS re:Invent (healthy amount of covering given exposure to Amazon); some also pointing to positive SemiAnalysis report as well

AMZN: re Invent keynote @ 11am ET (AWS CEO) ... saw covering/rallies in names exposed to Trainium (ie MRVL, ALAB generated most ?s)

CRDO: +17% significant beat and raise with new customer ramps and new product solutions layering on to growth in FY27 and beyond; management alluding to $5B in revenue against a $10B TAM in the ‘next several years,’ we believe investors are likely to shift incremental focus from here and now to the blue-sky scenario for the company longer-term

DELL TECHNOLOGIES RISES 1.9% PREMARKET AFTER TRUMP COMMENTS “TWO GREAT PEOPLE, I LOVE DELL” – President Trump

GOOGL - HSBC raised the target on Alphabet Inc. Class A to $370 from $335. Maintains buy rating.

GOOGL - AI disruption theme in the headlines with OpenAI CEO declaring a "code red" to improve ChatGPT amid competitive pressures.

Food Deliver Wars: CART -7%, DASH -1% as Amazon has plans for a new ultrafast delivery offering for groceries and other daily essentials in major urban areas in the US ... shorts pressing CART

CRWD: #s tonight / 6.2% implied move

TER: upgrade @ Stifel on accelerating growth / expects growth to accelerate given a favorable, structural shift in Teradyne's test revenue composition, even before considering potential share gain in the AI GPU and ASIC market

TSLA Short Call (out ysrdy on paid substack): Michael Burry reportedly taking bearish bet on Tesla (TSLA US) saying they are "ridiculously overvalued" and warning that Musk's proposed pay package would worsen shareholder dilution

NET - are up 2.9% after Barclays launched coverage on the infrastructure software company with an overweight rating and a $235 price target.

WDC/STX: Citi positive

GTLB: #s tonight / 12% implied move

MRVL: #s tonight / 9.7% implied move .... report Co in advanced talks to acquire Celestial AI in >$5B deal

OKTA: #s tonight / 10.2% implied move

PSTG: #s tonight / 10.9% implied move

Industrials 

BA (Baird) Our proprietary delivery checks show a sequentially lower delivery total for November, with ~42 BCA deliveries resulting in 95 deliveries QTD for 4Q25, which requires 63 deliveries in December to meet the current delivery consensus of 158 aircraft.

Darling Ingredients (DAR) upgraded to buy from hold at TD Cowen

Symbotic (SYM) downgraded to sell from neutral at Goldman Sachs

Teradyne (TER) upgraded to buy from hold at Stifel

TSLA Short Call (out ysrdy on paid substack): Michael Burry reportedly taking bearish bet on Tesla (TSLA US) saying they are "ridiculously overvalued" and warning that Musk's proposed pay package would worsen shareholder dilution

Latest Media

River1’s CIO on Schwab Network

Levered ETFs, market perspectives, etc.