This Week – ORCL, ADBE and KR earnings, but that’s it. The real show is the debate Tuesday and CPI Wednesday into PPI Thursday hopefully giving the 50bp cut fans what they want.

Monday – ORCL Earnings, AAPL event

Tuesday – Presidential Debate, Fed’s Barr speaks (last Fed speaker before quiet Period into Sept 18^th announcement)

Wednesday – CPI, KR earnings

Thursday – PPI, ADBE earnings

Friday – Import/Export Prices

Trading Observations

• Relief rally, but no news.  Lets hope it holds as fading opening rallies can crush the bulls

• 5440 broke easily, and first level to recover 5475/ 5500 next.   Should we break 5400, 5320 next support...  

• For the bulls

  • Oscillators very oversold

  • GS sentiment indicator subdued MikeZaccardi [x.com] 

  • Put buying at levels that normally portend a rally Banana3Stocks [x.com]

  • Fear/Greed back into fear territory Barchart [x.com]

  • High yield not showing signs of stress bespokeinvest [x.com]

  • Bankruptcies dropping despite econ worries SethCL [x.com]

  • More new highs than lows for 4th consecutive week WillieDelwiche [x.com] 

  • History on our side? SethCL [x.com]

  • For the bears

    • Yen carry not yet over? yardeni [x.com]

    • SPX rolling over? optionflys [x.com] 

    • Can we rally without tech? WillieDelwiche [x.com]

Futures

DOW +289

S&P +36

Nasdaq +138

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

Yellen said recent economic data is indicative of a soft landing, not recession (“we’re seeing less frenzy in terms of hiring and job openings, but we’re not seeing meaningful layoffs”) - CNBC

JPM – Saying the Fed will start with 50bps given unemployment uptick. WIRP is only 126%, meaning 26% chance of 50 bps.

MasterCard – Issued $3B in new debt at 4.1-4.55%.

LGIH – Homebuilder upgraded to overweight at JPM.

PYPL – Up 2% - Said to be teaming up with SHOP to process some of its transactions. Nice win here for PYPL.

KEY – Said they have sold about $7B worth of low yielding securities.

CELH: Energy drink maker Celsius slumped in recent months amid signals that the company’s growth had slowed. But those market reactions may be overblown as the company is expected to expand overseas, sell more online and get more products on grocery shelves, Barron’s writes in its Sept. 9

Technology

AAPL Event link: 1pm ET - https://www.apple.com/apple-events/ [apple.com] - IPhone16, AppleWatchX, Gen4 Airpods, Applewatch Ultra 3

MEGACAP FATIGUE: MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL all sitting below 200D - indicating little interest. Twittersphere: "either the market is sniffing out the AI trade or this is the buying opportunity of a lifetime"

AI CARNAGE: AVGO dealt another major blow to tech sentiment (the last major AI-related tech earnings reports have been met with selling, including AVGO on 9/5, HPE on 9/4, DELL on 8/29, NVDA on 8/28, and SMCI on 8/6) ... many ppl for end to AI trade as drawdowns piling up (growing risks around global growth, capex and profit headwinds from hyperscalers, elevated valuations, and growing AI demand/use case concerns)

INDEX ADDs: DELL+6%, PLTR+7% into S&P - expected / inline ... WDAY still waiting

SMCI 68% drawdown off highs ... peaked @ $1,228 vs Fri cloe $386.50

Industrials 

BA - The new contract agreement between BA and the Union avoids a strike and marks a new era of labor relations. As we highlighted last week we expected BA and the Union to reach a deal to avoid a strike, which eliminates a key risk and adds labor stability to operations during a key period of higher deliveries

Nuclear power was discussed on the cover of Barron’s – the article tone was positive, calling nuclear power a vital component of any plan to meet rising electricity needs in a clean and sustainable manner, although it noted the steep obstacles facing the industry. Stocks levered to nuclear include CCJ, CEG, DUK, OKLO, VST. 

LGI Homes (LGIH) Raised to Neutral at Wedbush; PT $125

Nucor (NUE) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $174

Steel Dynamics (STLD) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $131

U.S. Steel (X) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $42

RE+ Conference kicks off today in Anaheim, CA. It is the largest solar, wind, battery and other renewables conference in North America.