Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
March 31, 2025

Morning Note

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Trading Observations

Tariff Day – Unfortunately not until Wednesday. The administration unveils its tariff plans. Hopefully tariff and other policy uncertainty declines from then….
Market expecting 20% across the board, we shall see
Busy week anyway with JOLTs and ISM manuf Tues, ADP Wed, ISM services Thurs, and Jobs Fri
Month/qurater end rebal in theory a bid and short exposure supportive https://tinyurl.com/z6hwevzv [tinyurl.com]
87% down vol day Fri with follow thru this morning
The expected retest is here (QQQ breaking Mar lows premkt), and always harrowing ("nobody know how traumatic a test of a low is until they've lived through one"), how does market react?
Let's hope 5500 holds or vacuum with 5387 first speed bump
Sentiment still bearish https://tinyurl.com/2ry6xsj9 [tinyurl.com]
Should we bounce, 5670 first hurdle with 5750 tougher
Tariff worry pulling forward demand? https://tinyurl.com/yc7yb7y9 [tinyurl.com]
S&P earnings revision worst since 2020 https://tinyurl.com/45mf4h4m [tinyurl.com]
The bullish argument with tariffs the fulcrum https://tinyurl.com/2m4jeytu [tinyurl.com]
But really as simple as recession or no? https://tinyurl.com/59d83x5y [tinyurl.com]
What valuation is 'fair' https://tinyurl.com/y3r6r7v7 [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW -252

S&P -51

Nasdaq -248

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

WTI Crude Oil

Bitcoin

Financials / Retail / Healthcare

Makers of vaccines and gene therapies are seeing their shares fall in premarket trading after the FDA’s top regulator for such therapies, Peter Marks, abruptly resigned Friday. Analysts view Marks’ resignation as negative for the space, calling him one of the biggest FDA advocates of cell and gene therapies.

GPN – Baird positive on an earnings preview today (yelling into the wind). Leverage is falling and 7-8x 2026 EPS is good value. They like WEX as a name as well on an approximate 12.5% buyback for 2025 and 2026.

Baird on Bank Earnings – Expecting core PPNR to be in-line and expectations are low going into earnings in 10 days or so.

RKT – Announced a $9.4B deal to buy mortgage firm COOP, RKT down 5%, COOP up 14%

FBK and SSBK to merge in a $381MM bank tie up.

Crypto/beta related fins– HOOD, SOFI, UPST, AFRM down 5%

KO/PEP – there were more headlines Fri about restrictions being imposed on SNAP that would prohibit food stamps from being used to purchase soda – Wash Post

DIS - is facing an FCC investigation into the firm’s DEI policies - WSJ

LPLA – files to offer $1.5B of common stock through MS

CELH shares gain 0.3% in premarket trading after Truist Securities raised its recommendation to buy from hold, saying the company’s Alani Nu acquisition gives it an “extremely strong position” in the women’s segment of the US energy drink category.

Technology

Growth and momentum stocks are moving lower in early premarket trading: SNOW US (-2.2%), UBER US (-2.7%), DKNG US (-3.7%), SOFI US (-4.2), HIMS US (-4.7%), PLTR US (-5.1%), HOOD US (-5.2%), APP US (-6.8%).

Chips – All under pressure today on tariff war fears.

CRWV shares are down 3.1% in premarket trading, a sign the cloud-computing provider was continuing to struggle in the wake of its downsized IPO.

GOOGL - A federal judge in California expressed concerns about class certification for Chrome browser users accusing Google of collecting their data without permission, citing the case’s generic nature.

ORCL - shares saw pressure Fri in part due to reports the Pentagon was terminating a plan to use the company’s HR software – Bloomey

Xai, X - Elon Musk's artificial intelligence group, xAI, has acquired social media platform X for $45B, bringing together two of his flagship businesses. The all-stock deal valued xAI at $80B, with Musk stating that the futures of the two companies are intertwined.

TSM - said its newly built fab in Taiwan will add 7,000 tech jobs to the country's economy and that it will continue to expand in the South east Asian nation.

TikTok – Blackstone could take a small stake in the TikTok US business following a deal aimed at complying with the sell-of-ban bill – Reuters

Industrials

BA – several PE firms and at least one strategic buyer, TDG, are among the bidders for Boeing’s Jeppesen business, and a deal could be worth >$8B – Reuters

Toyota is seeing wait times for its hybrid vehicles spike thanks to surging demand – Reuters

Canadian airlines slash flights to the US as demand from the country for trips to the US sink in response to Trump’s bellicose behavior and rhetoric – NYT

TSLA - BABA - Said to explore cooperation with Tesla related to autonomous driving – Tradethenews

LMT - Lockheed Wins $4.94 Billion U.S. Army Contract