Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
April 15, 2025

Morning Note

presented by -

Calendar

This Week – Earnings heavy. 9 Fed speakers are probably just noise outside of Powell Wednesday.

Tuesday – Import Price Index, 1 Fed Speaker

Wednesday – Retail Sales, Housing Market Index, 3 Fed speakers including Powell at 1:30pm Central.

Thursday – Jobless Claims, 1 Fed Speaker

Friday – 1 Fed Speaker

Trading Observations

Headline risk remains extreme. Maybe most notable, bonds stabilizing
JNJ higher on numbers as we await the tech onslaught next week
Retail sales tomorrow
China said no more orders or parts from BA . . . I am sure you can pick up parts from a knock off Chinese OEM . . . what could go wrong.
Let's hope Bessent right “If we measure uncertainty by the $VIX, I don’t want to make market calls but it seems that the VIX has spiked and likely peaked.”
CTAs buying over next week/month https://tinyurl.com/2j47wnec [tinyurl.com]
5500 meaningful resistance with 5750 major
Recession expectations jumping https://tinyurl.com/ycd3yb28 [tinyurl.com]
Loads of reasons to sell, but Dimon sold a lot in Feb, and re-started yday with another $31MM
Will the recent love for Europe continue? HFs say no https://tinyurl.com/zc2kthcm [tinyurl.com]
Not only are car loan defaults rising, but credit tightening https://tinyurl.com/mszbpd52 [tinyurl.com]
As well as mortgages https://tinyurl.com/2audn9cw [tinyurl.com]
They make it hard, but time for small caps? https://tinyurl.com/yc44m2ej [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW -9

S&P +9

Nasdaq +43

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

ICE Brent Crude

Bitcoin

Financials / Retail / Healthcare

Financial Earnings -

Citi - +2% - Like GS, trading helping drive higher profitability.

BAC - +2% - Equity trading a record. Loan revenue rising nicely.

BULL – We Bull the latest SPAC to rip, up 300%+ on Day 1. It looks like a solid company (no real financials out), but investors seem very likely to get burned quickly.

GS on Office Leasing- NYC +18% y/y for Q1, SFO +7%. Tour volume however was very negative in NYC and positive in SFO. Jan and Feb were great, March wasn’t.

Fiserv Small/Medium business survey for March was +1.5% from February, but Q1 was a 1% deceleration from Q4 seasonalized.

PYPL – PT cut to $65 from $75 at Jefferies

LVMH (Yesterday) shares tumble in European trading after the company reported a shortfall in Q1 organic revenue growth (-3% vs. the Street +1.1%), w/a miss in all major product categories and geographies

DKNG - Oppenheimer & Co cut the target on DraftKings Inc. Class A to $60 from $68. Maintains outperform rating.

Technology

AAPL: Phone shipments spiked 10% Y/Y in CQ1 as the company accelerated deliveries to get ahead of Trump’s tariffs (Bloomberg)

ADSK: T Rowe to back Starboard in its Autodesk proxy fight (Reuters)

AMAT: announced it has purchased a 9% equity stake in BESI (+7.7% locally); BE and AMAT have been partners since 2020, and AMAT calls this a “strategic, long-term investment”

AMD: set to produce its CPU chip at TSMC plant in Arizona; fielding interest from Taiwanese bidders for ZT’s server assembly plants (Bloomberg)

AMD reportedly set to receive revised offers for its AI server assembly plants

GOOGL: ordered by Japan to halt abusive market demands related to its control of the Android operating system (Bloomberg)

LYFT: MScience saying spending trends accelerated in march and q tracking above street (Q1)

MU: Micron reportedly secures Nvidia certification for fifth-gen 12-layer HBM3E supply (DigiTimes)

NFLX reportedly looking to achieve $1T market cap, double its revenue and triple its operating income by 2030. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/netflix-aiming-for-1t-market-cap-by-2030-report/ar-AA1CUPwr?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds [msn.com]

NVDA says it will build up to $500B of AI gear in US https://www.engadget.com/computing/nvidia-is-going-to-make-ai-chips-and-supercomputers-in-the-us-213534618.html [engadget.com]

Industrials

AMRC, GNTX, LFUS – Downgraded to Neutral at Baird

Aptiv (APTV) downgraded to equal weight from overweight at Barclays

Air Products (APD) downgraded to underperform at BofA

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) upgraded to neutral at BofA

Autoliv (ALV) upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays

Boeing (BA) trading down 3% - Tariff war expansion: China orders its airlines to stop accepting Boeing deliveries – Bloomberg. Ryanair warns it could delay deliveries of Boeing aircraft if they become more expensive amid trade war - FT, citing CEO

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) - Chairman and CEO Jim Umpleby to become Executive Chairman; Caterpillar COO Joe Creed elected as next CEO effective 1-May

General Motors (GM) downgraded to equal weight from overweight at Barclays

Hexcel (HXL) downgraded to equal weight from overweight at Wells Fargo

Howmet Aerospace (HWM) downgraded to equal weight from overweight at Wells Fargo

Mobileye (MBLY) downgraded to equal weight from overweight at Barclays

PPG Industries (PPG) downgraded to neutral from buy at BofA

Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) set to join S&P SmallCap 600

Triumph Group (TGI) upgraded to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan

Visteon (VC) downgraded to equal weight from overweight at Barclays

Westlake (WLK) upgraded to buy from neutral at BofA