Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
September 11, 2025

Morning Note

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Trading Observations

This week’s final economic data in CPI and initial jobless claims are out.
CPI was in line, and not as dovish as the remainder of the data, but initial jobless claims ticking up to 263k vs 235k last week is both concerning, and should help the Fed.
100% chance of a 25bps cut, 10% of a 50-bps cut priced in right now. 3 cuts/75bps by end of year.
Conclusion – September 11^th and Kirk probably put a damper on trading volumes, which is usually a positive for the tape.

Futures

DOW +131

S&P +16

Nasdaq +75

Initial Jobless Claims uptick not scary yet, but moving towards it.

10-year yield trying to break below 4% this morning

First downtick in Manhattan rents in a while –

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

CELH – Initiated buy at GS. +4%.

LULU – Downgraded to hold at HSBC (very late).

ABBV – Up 6% on generic Rinvoq litigation win.

OPEN – Up 33% - The next GME most likely. LDI in the mix too. Twitter is all over this one trying to drive it higher.

MAZE – Today’s random pharma winner +51%.

Technology

AMZN – Named Top Pick at MS on a harder push into grocery.

AMD – Downgraded at Erste Group (who?)

AAPL – Downgraded to neutral at DA Davidson on nothing obviously great coming from this week’s release.

NVDA – Upgraded to buy at DA Davidson on ongoing AI growth.

MU – Up 5% on a simple PT raise to $175 at Citi and GS tech conference. SNDK up 10% as well.

SNPS – Up 6% - Recovery rally/long callers defending.

Industrials

FDX, UPS – BAC downgraded UPS to underperform and FDX to neutral. Given the valuation of UPS (10x next year EPS) I can only imagine they see further deterioration in the business model and EPS. De Minimis exemption also to blame.

Tricolor Holdings is a sup prime auto lender, and it has completely collapsed in what is being called an alleged fraud.