Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
August 13, 2025

Morning Note

presented by -

Invest with us here: https://www.river1.us/invest.php

Calendar

This Week – Largely devoid of earnings. CAH, CSCO, DE, AMAT and PANW if you’re squinting. CPI Tuesday is the lead dog.

Tuesday – CPI

Wednesday – Three Fed Speakers

Thursday – PPI, Jobless Claims (watching these more closely after bad NFPs)

Friday – Retail Sales, Trump with Putin.

Trading Observations

Finally pushed thru 6400 with conviction
Perhaps more notable... One day does not a trend make, but was yday the start of the broadening?
CPI out of the way with PPI tomorrow
Front running rate cuts the catalyst?
Next few days will tell us a lot, but have to notice the move in smids...
IWM big move on strong volume, breaking above consolidation and over almost 4 years without a new high
If can get going things will get interesting https://tinyurl.com/3cyw4xtu [tinyurl.com]
Once again, market at the highs and II Bulls DROP to 46.3% from 47.1% (below 40% a contrarian buy in a bull but not a headwind unless above 60!)
6400 support vs. 6500 next round hurdle, but we have flipped trendline so
CPI shelter component still lagging https://tinyurl.com/46nyd4kk [tinyurl.com]
Bessent calls for 50 bp fed rate cut in Sept – Bloomey

Futures

DOW +152

S&P +18

Nasdaq +84

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

VIX

Bitcoin

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

The Trump family's crypto venture has generated $4.5 billion since the election, thanks to a partnership with Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange. PancakeSwap, an online trading platform, has sparked interest among traders to use coins issued by World Liberty Financial, the main crypto company of the Trump family.

CAVA – We did a video calling CAVA un-investible at $150. Today it trades $64 on an earnings miss, comps miss, and store growth miss, down 24%. When growth stops for overpriced and loved names, the damage these can do is mighty.

EAT – Up 6% on solid Chillis sales +23% y/y. They used socials to bring in a younger generation and hit a home run.

CRCL – Baird thinks sub $125 is compelling. Gross Profit miss and new share issuance weighing on the stock.

ONON – All notes positive and highlight Direct to Consumer +54%, America’s +40% as they continue to take share. Baird saying $40 floor, $80 upside for the stock.

LULU – GS out wit trackers calling them “mixed”. Baird did the same recently. They are calling valuation “increasingly attractive”. We would call it very attractive.

HBI – Down 2% after yesterday’s rally as Gildan isn’t paying up to the extent folks were hoping.

LLY - Eli Lilly launched its Mounjaro injector pen in India at $160, competing with Novo Nordisk's Wegovy – Reuters

SOFI - SoFi’s Neobank Strategy Offers Path to Meet Its Long-Term Target

Run on the bank in crypto Ethereum seems to be going on as public companies pull a MSTR and start using cash to sop up the crypto

ANTF +50% today, which is a biotech…or was I guess.

Technology

ADSK: launched new, more affordable pricing for Autodesk Flow Studio (formerly Wonder Studio) including its first free tier and a 50% price drop for the Lite plan (from $20 to $10). This pricing update underscores the pressures being placed on traditional software vendors from new AI tools (as far as the creative community is concerned, ADBE is coming under particular scrutiny at the moment as investors worry about its products being displaced by AI)

Why Apple’s Tim Cook is the odd man out in the AI Race – WSJ -> AI doesn’t just open the door to possibly replace the iPhone—it seriously threatens Tim Cook’s ethos around user privacy

AI WARS: Washington is increasingly worried that China’s open-source/open-weight approach to AI could come to dominate the industry (WSJ) ... the US govt is embedding secret location trackers in servers containing advanced Nvidia/AMD chips from firms such as Dell and Supermicro to determine if they are being illegally diverted to China (Reuters)

AMZN / CART etc – Amazon expands same-day fresh grocery delivery

AKAM: -1% initiated SELL @ Goldman - believes Co will be challenged to grow consistently in each of its segments; a re-rating will require progress with stabilizing Security rev growth, improving returns on capex in Compute, and more evidence of long-term stabilization in Delivery

COHR: +2% into print / LITE sympathy; another large GOOGL supplier reports tonight.

CRCL: -4.4% hit on 10M shr offering

DASH - McDonald’s USA and DoorDash launched a new US online ordering experience, allowing customers to order McDelivery via mobile web or desktop

DDOG: didnt address OpenAI @ Keybanc conf .. heard nothing too incremental

DUOL: Contd weakness / puking; user data slowing / AI @ risk play. OpenAI event last Thur only elevated AI fears

MRVL: +1.4% peer ALCHIP reported post local close; guessing nothing incremental - saw this from BofA: 'expressed confidence in strong growth toward 2029, as well as engagement in 2nm with a key CSP customer" ... heard MS is hosting a zoom on it this am for US and EU investors that weren't able to get on Alchip call overnight

NXPI: +7% ystry leading analogs; positive commentary @ KeyBanc

NVDA reportedly seeing lackluster demand for H20 chip in China.

PANW: +2% another upgrade (DB) + desk has seen multiple LO defening $170 level ... Deutsche says investor concerns for Palo Alto are overblown; also cites the health of the business, the quality of the company's leadership, and its prospects for the CyberArk acquisition for the upgrade

Industrials

SSYS - Stratasys shares fell 13.5% in pre-market trading after the three-dimensional printers company cut its full-year revenue view. The guidance missed the average analyst estimate.

LITE - UBS raised the target on Lumentum Holdings Inc. to $130 from $78. Maintains neutral rating.