Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
June 17, 2025

Morning Note

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Calendar

This Week – Fed Wednesday, Closed Thursday, Rebalance/Major Options Expiration Friday feel like the drivers.

Tuesday – Retail Sales

Wednesday – FOMC Meeting (market expecting no change), Housing Data

Thursday – Market Closed – Juneteenth

Friday – Philly Fed

Trading Observations

Lot of escalation talk, but just watch oil?
Market still pricing in a short conflict and oil prices contained (+1.5% isn't going to derail market)
Unless that changes, dips likely to be bought, though seasonals a headwind https://tinyurl.com/25dtmfc9 [tinyurl.com]
Is NVDA close to overpowering seasonals? https://tinyurl.com/5apfdc78 [tinyurl.com]
Fed tomorrow
LEN higher despite 'just' an inline print
6060/6100/6147 resistance vs. 6000/5970/5930 support
Fwiw, people leaving labor force https://tinyurl.com/bdexuy8y [tinyurl.com]
BofA survey cash levels drop to 4.2% https://tinyurl.com/puy6472f [tinyurl.com]
Speculators net short Russell 2000 positioning increasing https://tinyurl.com/mvsp4y8a [tinyurl.com]
Chart of the Day: RDDT popping on AI news, taking out 4-month trading range https://tinyurl.com/5699bv2x [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW -231

S&P -29

Nasdaq -113

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Oil

Bitcoin

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

VERV - +75% on a deal to be purchased by LLY. Gene editing.

Baird Credit Card Processing Survey – 2025 growth looks +4%, in line with 2-6% long-term growth rates and up 31% from the beginning of the year. Nobody in the survey intends to add stablecoins anytime soon. CRCL stock does not care.

Baird on Banks – Wouldn’t chase the most recent bounce. That said Net Charge Offs are outperforming and delinquencies trending lower, so there remain zero signs of a credit crisis (as it’s been since 2009).

JPM on Banks – Hopes are high going into stress test season that regulatory scrutiny will show decline and benefit banks.

CRCL – Up another 3% because it’s the new hot thing. Stablecoins.

JPM – To up the Saphire Reserve fee to $795/year.

LEN – Flat on earnings that just met expectations. They are on pace to do $10 in EPS and trade $110, so that’s an 11x P/E, or low bar.

OSCR – A hot AI healthcare platform up 8% on help from the current version of Big Beautfiul Bill.

CVNA/ETSY: cont to lag in alpha; both for idio reasons (CVNA had become super crowded; JPM cut ests late last week; ETSY Yipit has turned neg, downgrade, positioning, US-China de-escalation)

Technology

ALAB/Alchip: Alchip and Astera Lab announced strategic partnership to advance silicon ecosystem for AI rack-scale connectivity. Hyperscalers will benefit from this strategic partnership with validated total solutions that combine Alchip's ASIC design expertise and Astera Labs' Intelligent Connectivity Platform which includes the COSMOS software suite

AMD: +0.2% positive WSJ article; follows huge o/p in alpha Monday post SemiAnalysis/Piper commentary

AMZN: said it would hold its Prime Day event Jul 8-11, expanding it from two days to four (Reuters)

CRCL: +5% in pre on 910k shrs (as of 6:05am ET) ... follows 25% pop on Fri, +13% Mon

MRVL: event/webinar today / huge laggard but been bid as of late; funding short within AI trade..... JPM expects them to surprise positively on the event and said he was confident MRVL had secured the AWS Trainum 4 program targeted for C27/28

NVDA: Nvidia to attend major supply chain expo in Beijing next month

ORCL: launches new initiative aimed at helping tech firms sell products to the Pentagon (WSJ)

RDDT: +3% in pre on 390k shrs (+6.8% Monday, 3 day winning streak) - has launched AI advertising features to enhance brand engagement by analyzing user conversations and trends ... Amazing how quickly sentiment can flip-flop here. Reddit mgmt called out better demand trends ystrdy on LinkedIn; Sensor Tower data has also showed uptcik in June for the first time since late Feb (comps start getting easier)

SNAP - Trump says he will probably extend TikTok deadline again – Reuters

TTWO: record close .. remember those 60 seconds where had oppty to buy it sub $200 on GTA delay

Industrials

SOLAR: Senate budget draft bill keeps phase out of solar and wind energy tax credits. ARRY, ENPH, FSLR, NXT, RUN, SEDG, SHLS all trading lower.

Auto headlines: (1)China’s auto OEMs plan to begin utilizing 100% domestic chips as soon as 2026 as the gov’t proceeds with a plan to reduce the country’s reliance on Western technology (Nikkei) ... (2)EVs/batteries – the US EV battery industry is starting to suffer as firms slow/abandon projects due to various Trump policies (NYT)