Morning Note

Trading Observations

• Little incremental overnight, new ATH’s and Futures higher

• QQQ’s up 9 sessions in a row, usually leads to a 10th https://tinyurl.com/y5h94sfh [tinyurl.com]

• While it appears blue skies ahead and seasonality sell off of Sept is not happening, the week after Sept 15th tends to be the ones where the market feels pain https://tinyurl.com/ystbufzc [tinyurl.com]

• The DSI is elevated at 82, above 85 is frothy

• Global portfolio managers most bullish since Feb 2025 https://tinyurl.com/mw66f3m3 [tinyurl.com]

• While 58% see global stocks as overvalued https://tinyurl.com/mv2hbuuv [tinyurl.com]

• Investors are not long enough, says Schiavone https://tinyurl.com/mr3wkhxy [tinyurl.com]

• ORCL up 5% on the back of TikTok hopes

• Retail sales (surprisingly strong)are the last real economic indicator before the Fed announcement tomorrow

Futures

DOW -41

S&P +6

Nasdaq +45

Charts/Sentiment

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

OSCR – Down 5% on a convertible note offering. They were already sitting on a cash pile, so the market doesn’t love it.

WBTN – Webtoon up 32% on a Disney stake announcement.

TKO – Announced a $1B share repurchase including $800MM by end of year. At $43B EV this is only 2% however.

Restaurant comps from Baird – “Stable”.

Bank Net Charge Offs – Let’s call them “boring and fine”. We have not had a credit crisis since 2008 and aren’t showing signs of one currently.

FERG – Up 10% on solid beat and raise. Good sign for builders/remodelers.

RL – Down 5% on presentation of its “next chapter”.

PLAY – Dave and Busters down 18% after missed earnings. This company goes from private to public and back about every 5 years. The public markets never love it because it’s basically a big Applebee’s with distractions.

HSY – Up 3% on a double upgrade at GS. Look for this one to do well relatively in a puke.

HSY – gains 2% after Goldman Sachs double upgraded the shares. Analysts said market-share trends are impro

NVO – bid up 3% after plans to seek US regulatory approval for a high-dose version of its blockbuster weight-loss shot Wegovy, another effort to counter Eli Lilly & Co. in the booming obesity market

Technology

AAPL – rated new Outperform @ Bernstein

ADTN – -8% plans private offering of $150M in sr notes

AMKR – +8% name dropped by Cook last night on Mad Money as key packaging supplier when discussing reshoring; also named TSM / AMAT .... AMKR is in prime position to gain material business from TSM, Apple, and Broadcom's growing AI-chip offering

AMZN – dips are shallow / being bought ... Cowen had some +VE checks - says Project Raimer could be 7GW expansion, with close to 2GW coming online by EOY '26 ... bulls hopeful getting behind AWS accel thesis in 2026

AMZN – M-sci positive on U.s. Share trends accelerating

BE/AI Power Up – MS bullish note; hiking PT to $85 ... "Bloom is ramping a new relationship with ORCL just as ORCL is experiencing a massive inflection in demand. BE is extremely well positioned: one of the only players able to scale manufacturing and deploy rapidly into a tightening market and substantial TAM. Raising PT and bull case significantly"

CRWV – bullish init @ RayJ - "bullish stance on the duration of scaling laws due to reasoning vector growth and broadening inference commercialization with AI 6 CapEx Street ests that appear too low; adds elevated risk given CoreWeave's high customer concentration and high debt-to-capital ratio to finance its capital-intensive business model"

DELL – bullish init @ Bernstein - "continues to have large upside opportunities in AI servers and in storage, and is very inexpensive relative to its growth profile"

GOOGL – grind higher contd; 1st close >$250 ... there's simply just A LOT to like about this story (Gemini #1 app charts for first time; TPU buzz; Waymo + YouTube; Search checks solid; GCP momentum). AI narrative has EXPLODED since late May I/O Developers Conf + now have viral hit with Nanobanana (worth listen to DeepMind CEO on All-In)

MU – Mizuho positive ... Memory flying again overnight

NVDA – RTX6000D chip tailored for the Chinese market isn’t finding much demand on the mainland (Reuters)

ORCL – +4.5% contd upside on TikTok related report ... ystrdy shrs rallied on hopes they were the suitor for Bytedance — BD is a big buyer of GPUs and there would be some OCI synergies there

Semicaps – watch US names - AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, etc .... ASML breaking out locally (flurry of positive talking points) and healthy strength in Japan names overnight - DISCO+8%, SCREEN+6%, TEL+2%, Lasertec/Advantest+1.6%. Most pointing to memory spend accelerating, Intel priced in, Samsung ramp, TSMC chatter that capex to rise, etc

STX/WDC: – not sure too better charts exist in Tech .... not a day goes by without a positive data pt

Industrials 

BE – jumps 7% after Morgan Stanley boosted its price target on the fuel-cell manufacturer to a Street-high, saying the company is much more favorably positioned for success in powering AI data centers.

BWXT – Field Trip in Ontario Commercial Nuclear Operations w CFO hosted by Peter Arment - Detailed Agenda. [rwbaird.com]

ECVT – Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $10.50

NIO – upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS

TATT – initiated buy at Stifel; $44 PT

TSLA – US Auto Regulator opens defect probe into TESLA Model Y Doors

UNP – upgraded to hold from sell at Loop Capital Markets; $227 PT

URI – upgraded to neutral from underperform at BNP Paribas Exane; $900 PT

VSEC – resumed buy at Stifel; $199 PT

Latest Media

$BE (Bloom Energy)

Powering AI Data Centers