Morning Note

Trading Observations

• Interesting day, a fair amount of skepticism over how much Trump/XI actually accomplished

• AAPL + AMZN (very strong AWS) along with WDC helping a recovery to start

• At the same time, two of the most reliable sentiment indicators (in my view) II Bull/Bear https://tinyurl.com/2a3w6msr [tinyurl.com] 

• And NAAIM exposure both at levels that are headwinds and the odds of consolidation/pullback higher https://tinyurl.com/5hej2bdt [tinyurl.com]

• 6900 resistance vs. 6750 support  

• Buyback window opening again https://tinyurl.com/45rrhrhb [tinyurl.com]

• But given Fed just cut at ATHs mitigated perhaps https://tinyurl.com/znykk564 [tinyurl.com]

• AI Buildout, he's not wrong https://tinyurl.com/4bchfsst [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW +64

S&P +50

Nasdaq +335

Charts/Sentiment

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

LLY (RVER Holding) – Reiterated BUY at ML.  Not "expensive" on PE-to-growth. And we think GLP1 pricing (incl sema IRA) will be better than bears fear.  Zepbound/Mounjaro estimates go higher. Revs/EPS higher by low to mid SD percent across broad forecast period.

COIN: +3% solid upside on Q3 EBITDA / sales with transaction rev driving the bulk of the beat (transaction rev spiked 37% Q/Q to ~$1.04B vs. the St $992M). Global crypto market spot trading volumes were up 38% Q/Q, and U.S. crypto market spot volumes were up 29% Q/Q

MSTR: +6% #s even matter? Holds 640,808 BTC valued at $47.44B (avg. $74,032/BTC as of Oct 26) ... Co says it is “actively laying the groundwork for credit securities in international jurisdictions”, suggesting it is looking to tap int’l investors for cash to keep its bitcoin ownership cycle going.

RKT (RVER Holding) +7% upside on sales ($1.78B vs. the St $1.7B) and EBITDA ($349M vs. the St $263M) w/slightly higher volumes ($32.4B vs. the St $32.2B) and inline margins (at 2.8%). The sales guide for Q4 works out to $2.2B at the mid-point (vs. the St $2.1B).

Z/Zillow: modest upside on Q3 sales/EBITDA ($676M/$165M vs. the St $671M/$158M) and the Q4 guide mid-points are about inline (they see sales/EBITDA $650M/$150M vs. the St $644M/$149M)

Roku (ROKU) shares are down 4% after the streaming-video platform company reported its third-quarter results and gave an outlook

Brighthouse Financial (BHF) soars 22% after the Financial Times reports that Aquarian Holdings is in advanced talks to take the US life insurer private.

Technology

Semis/AI infrastructure: MRVL+3.2%, SNDK+3%, NVDA+2.1%, AMD+1.7% .... other: ALAB/CRDO+5%, CLS/BE/ANET/COHR+2%, PLTR+1.8%, VRT/ORCL/SNOW/NBIS/OKLO +1.7%

Amazon (RVER holding) +12% just massive breakout >$240 level - strong print fueled by AWS vs elevated angst/lean positioning (worst performing megacap YTD; down 4 out of 5 weeks) .... AWS re-accelerates to 20.2% ; Beat/raise with very healthy Q4 guide; Capacity: adding >3.8 GW in the past 12 months” to meet AI/infra demand ... Exactly what bulls wanted to see, especially on AWS but rest of #s v solid too AMZN: massive breakout above $240 resistance .... last trade $251. Street raising estimates and reiterating bullish sentiment.

AAPL +2% stronger Dec qrtr guide (rev increase of 10-12% in holiday qrtr; iPhone rev growing double digits) .... iPhone growth is accelerating, Services is outperforming, and AAPL is protecting GMs better than we expected. See 2026 as a better product cycle year for Apple with a trio of product launches (Advanced Siri, Foldable Phone, Vision Pro 2. Sees improved performance in China ....

INTC: +1.5% Intel reportedly in talks to acquire Sambanova (AI) - a Co which has never seemed to get the traction that Groq or Cerebras did with big potential customers

NFLX +2.7% post 10-1 split; Reuters reports of WBD deal (wasn’t dismissed on Netflix call a few weeks ago) …. WBD +2.6%

NVDA headlines: (1)said it would supply as many as 260K AI GPUs to South Korean companies and the SK govt .... (2)Greer - Blackwells were not really on the table w/ China ... (3)Jensen still hopes to sell chips from the co’s Blackwell lineup to customers in China

SAMSUNG: Samsung building facility with 50,000 Nvidia GPUs to automate chip manufacturing; latest company to announce a deal with Nvidia, whose chips remain essential for building and deploying advanced AI (CNBC); not new - says it is in talks to supply HBM4 chips to Nvidia (

Cloudflare (NET) rises 8% after the software company forecast revenue for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.

Storage / Memory: WDC +10% latest blowout from complex …. Western Digital’s results and outlook still illustrate robust demand, as strong cloud AI-storage need props up solid sales growth …. The visibility for these names is unprecedented (12-18+ months

RDDT: +11% solid and positioning cleaned up into print post T+1 reactions in both META/RBLX. Revs ahead/ beat on EBITDA; Q4 guide > St and in line with bogeys; DAUs fine. “Reddit provides something rare on the Internet. 444 million people come here each week for authentic conversations they can’t find anywhere else, and increasingly, for engagement with brands, institutions, and publishers”

TEAM (RVER Holding) Flat Solid beat; cloud growth tops buyside; guide nudges up. Looks good as sentiment had been a bit mixed going into the print .... F1Q26: rev $1.43B vs St $1.40B; Cloud +26% (vs St ~22.5%, buyside ~25%) ... Guide: F2Q26 rev ~$1.54B vs St ~$1.51B; FY26 framework implies ~21% total growth and ~22–23% cloud. MS bullish on cloud growth accelerating, PT $320. Software just can’t get love with fears of AI reducing need for software.

TWLO: +9% solid upside on EPS/sales as the company saw “broad-based strength across customer segments, ranging from startups to enterprises to ISVs”, and the Q4 guide is ahead of the St. Boosted its 2025 organic sales outlook on robust demand across all customer verticals, with messaging, voice and software add-ons all strong.

WDC: +11% another memory blowout fueled by strength in AI data center demand ; extremely bullish coMentary on demand drivers. ATHs + Seagate up addtl 2% in sympathy

Industrials 

BE: +16% WTD coming into this am; up addtl 2.5% in pre ... narrative here only strengthening (aws related chatter)

ITRI – Downgraded to Neutral at Baird

FMC Corp (FMC) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $16

FMC Corp (FMC) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc

METC and U.S. DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory execute far-reaching strategic agreement on rare earths and critical minerals. METC trading +15% this morning on the deal.

UFP Industries (UFP) upgraded to buy from neutral at DA Davidson; $112 PT

FSLR: +4% trimmed its full-year guide for volumes (now 16.7-17.4GW vs. the prior 16.7-19.3GW) and EPS (the new mid-point is $14.50 vs. the prior $15) as “trade and policy developments have introduced new challenges for many in our industry.”

Latest Media

$PM - New and hot consumer product!

Took the stock from a 15x to 30x P/E.

Purely multiple expansion.