Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
July 25, 2025

Morning Note

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Trading Observations

Today’s meme entrant looks to be Powell and Trump’s construction helmet note pass. Rates are saying Powell is going to be around for a bit.
Durable goods non-defense, ex-air remains negative and a problem.
40% of the S&P reports next week. The EPS beat rate of 84% has been very solid so far.
Reason to be bullish – S&P earnings expected to grow from $265 this year to $300 next year.
Reason to be bearish – 21.5x forward P/E typically points to muted returns.

Futures

DOW +73

S&P +3

Nasdaq +9

52-week return –

RVER +23.45%

Nasdaq +17.36%

SPX +14.04%

Seems good

Source Bloomberg

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SRPT – Down another 12% after their therapy with Rosche gets denied by regulators. $140 to $11 in a year.

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

SNV, PNFP – Both Down 9% on announcing an $8.6B stock deal to combine with PNFP. Rare the market hates both sides of a takeover, but here we are.

DECK – Up 12% - Hoka and UGG numbers were solid, and the stock was generally cheap.

SAM – Up 13% on minimized tariff hits and wins at Angry Orchard and Dogfish Head.

COUR – This education name (and highly shorted name) is up 30% on a solid quarter and squeeze.

Marine – Powerboat US retail down 10% in June and 11% YTD.

Technology

INTC – Down 9% - I’m not sure the SMH will even care given how insulated INTCs problems are from the general semi market. They are laying off 15% of their staff. After two quarters of 0% revenue growth, this one came in down 2% and guidance for next down 6%. Those numbers need to become positive for the street to care.

OSCR – Baird downgrades to neutral on a cautious 2026. This is a social media darling and might have a lot of retail renters not ready for a ride lower.

SYM (Robot name, highflier) – Downgraded to neutral at Arete.

PLTR – Rated new overweight at Piper Sandler as an AI play. Where on earth have you been?

Industrials

OKLO – Nuclear/Meme stock OKLO, which is worth $9B and has zero revenue, initiated underperform at BNP Paribas and is down 3%.

Jeffries downgrades NSC and upgrades UNP in rails.