Trading Observations

• Futures lower on the back of GOOGL and AMD

• Gold continues to grind higher with Treasury yields lower

• We may get a move into Small Caps as Russell Futures higher, look to banks for leadership

• 6100 remains resistance for the S&P, with tactical support at Mondays low of 5936

Futures

DOW -75

S&P -21

Nasdaq -152

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Financials / Retail / Healthcare

JPM Ratings Changes – Upgrading JHG, Downgrading FHI, talking up ARES (down 2.5%) fundraising. ARES Q4 asset raising was $28B vs $20B street and $21B in Q3. Most of it was in credit.

BLK – Expected to hire 1200 people in India.

FI – Up 4% - Fiserv up a bit on a strong guide against low expectations.

TROW – Down 2.5% on EPS miss. Mutual funds and target date funds continue to get inundated with competition.

FICO – Down 7%. Housing market cannot be helping here.

DIS: +2% Q1 beat fueled by Moana 2 and higher income from its streaming; Total Disney+ subs 124.6 million vs 125.3 million q/q; Domestic Disney+ subs 56.8m (est 55.67M); Intl Disney+ subs 67.8m (est 63.77M) ... Streaming operation and film studio led to a 31% gain in operating income for the quarter, while its TV networks and theme park earnings struggled ....

Novo Nordisk Q4 profit beats expectations, sees slower growth in 2025 – Reuters

CMG drops 5% after sales rose less than expected, highlighting the high bar the company set by defying an industrywide traffic slowdown in recent years

MAT surges 11% after the toymaker reported better-than-expected 4Q results and FY25 EPS guidance above analyst estimates

Technology

AI proxies: group higher on GOOGL capex; $75B a big number here - positive AVGO MRVL NVDA ARM ANET CRDO TSM - hyperscalers are still pouring tons of $$$ into infrastructure despite the recent DeepSeek scare .... some of after hours were tempered as AMD shrs spiraled lower

AAPL: -2.2% China Weighs Probe Into Apple’s App Store Fees, Practices - "has begun laying the groundwork for a potential probe into Apple's policies and fees it charges app developers, Pei Li of Bloomberg reports. These policies and fees incl taking a cut of as much as 30% on in-app spending and preventing external payment services.

AMD: -9% hit on weaker outlook / lack FY25 AI rev guide but most were expecting that (mkt cont to show no mercy between thematic winners + losers; espc within tech). Mgmt predicts "strong double-digit percentage rev/EPS growth y/y" for 2025, with better products expected to be released around the middle of the year; sees clear growth oppty for server CPUs in 2025 ... for Q, Data center rev $3.86B (est $4.09B); Gaming rev $563M (est $487.9M); Client rev $2.31B (est $1.99B) ... capex lofty: $208M (est $148.8M); margins inline/lackluster

AVGO +4% after a higher-than-expected capital spending forecast from customer Alphabet, which accounts for 9% of the firm’s sales, according to Bloomberg supply-chain data

CRUS: +8% strong Q3 w/ EPS of $2.51 (est $2.04) and sales of $555.7M (est $510M). “delivered rev significantly above the top end of our guide range in Dec Q as shipments into smartphones exceeded our expectations”. Q4/Mar guide is healthy too

EA: +3% confirmed Battlefield release and anncd $1B ASR (3.1% mkt cap); Q3 results and guidance consistent w/the downside pre. Mgmt said changes made to FC in Jan has driven a return to y/y net bookings growth following Team of the Year event in mid-Jan

GOOGL: -7% positioning flipped long into print after big run up / Search concerns to linger. Cloud miss doesnt help. Heavy yr of investments ahead (jacking up capex); step backwards for Cloud. And despite some overhang on regulatory / Search front, ppl were long looking to fade a 10% pop ... Just underwhelming - more like MSFT here versus Meta. 

JNPR/HPE: JNPR strong Q4 upside on EPS w/ beat driven by better sales and higher op. margins (revenue came in at $1.404B vs est $1.388B).

MTCH: -9% growth concerns / lower guide. Surprise CEO transition announced; for Q4, sales and adjusted op. income inline. The number of payers fell short at 14.6M while rev per payer was a touch better at $19.29. Q1/FY guide poor; back-half weighted improvements implied in its FY25 revenue guide

Netflix bets on live sports, hoping boxing, wrestling and other events can also boost nascent advertising business – FT

SNAP: Flat Roughly in-line Q4 revs and guide; EBITDA Q4 better / Q1 EBITDA guide weaker ... for qrtr, healthy upside on the main KPIs, including sales ($1.55B vs est $1.54B), DAUs (453M vs. the Street 451M), and EBITDA ($276M vs est $248M). Margins weaker

UBER -7% shorts pressing .... GBs guide $42-43.B below expectations ~44.5B .. Q4 GBs $44.1B inline .. Adj EBITDA guide also below. Autonomous / Musk key to oval office remain overhangs

TSMC/semis: launches 5-year CoWoS expansion; bolsters Nvidia's AI dominance amid DeepSeek challenge (DigiTimes)

Industrials 

FMC Corp (FMC) downgraded to sector perform from outperform at RBC Capital Markets

Hayward Holdings (HAYW) upgraded to buy from hold at Stifel

ENPH: +3% solid Q4 upside on EPS w/ the beat driven by higher sales and better margins (GMs climbed nearly 300bp Y/Y). Q1 guide solid - see sales of $360M (est $340M) w/GMs of 49.5% (est 48.2%) ... Outlook benefited from safe-harbor rev, or sales to clients planning to install inventory over more than one year

GM cuts: cutting about half the workers at its Cruise business (NBC News)

JCI rises 7% after boosting its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year

TSLA slips 1% as sales plummeted 59% last month in Germany, where Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk asserted himself in national politics like never before.