Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
April 25, 2025

Morning Note

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Trading Observations

Breadth thrusts triggered, lots refencing Zweig (and again 16 for 16 out a year since 1950) https://tinyurl.com/mrx4dupf [tinyurl.com]
The Super Zweig also triggered https://tinyurl.com/25mrtca4 [tinyurl.com]
In addition 3 days of S&P > 1.5% rare and meaningful (last time did 4 was Oct 1982) https://tinyurl.com/3fvm6um4 [tinyurl.com]
Short-term, some sideways would be healthy
Selling off this morning on Trump tariff comments from an interview from earlier in the week https://tinyurl.com/yt7adrf5 [tinyurl.com]
US PRES. TRUMP: TO ANNOUNCE DEALS “OVER THE NEXT THREE TO FOUR WEEKS” TRUMP SAYS WILL SET A FAIR PRICE OF TARIFFS FOR DIFFERENT COUNTRIES
TRUMP: "TOTAL VICTORY" IF TARIFFS REMAIN AT 20%-50% A YEAR FROM NOW per Time
Extremely overbought (though lockout rally if we get positive tariff news not off the table)
GOOG helping lift tech, earnings ramp significantly next week along with a lot of econ data highlighted by jobs Fri
China seemingly de-escalating by pulling back some tariffs, Trump suggesting talks happening though China denying
5500 a BIG level with 5750 above
5300 gap fill first support, 5100 below https://tinyurl.com/55kmy52c [tinyurl.com]
CTAs have flipped to buying https://tinyurl.com/4atemar6 [tinyurl.com] buying from a -$26B net short position.
Buyback window open
Investor pessimism among higher earnings low https://tinyurl.com/yhuphtts [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW -166

S&P -12

Nasdaq -66

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Gold

Bitcoin

Financials / Retail / Healthcare

BC – Boat and bowling ball maker Brunswick, a good tariff indicator, guides EPS from $4.25 to $3.25.

ASB – Credit drove the beat. Usually not something the market loves. Loan growth +2% q/q is decent.

LAZ – EPS beat, but they moved comp lower to do it. Investors will want forward looking banking comments to truly judge.

SCHW - +1% - Upgraded to buy at GS on more durable EPS growth in an uncertain world. PT $100. Earnings expected to grow at a 25% CAGR through 2027 compared to 15% for broader financials.

DLR – +3% - Strong bookings for this data center REIT should help the stock and the industry. Price escalators of 4%+ the norm.

SOFI – Rated new market outperform at Citizens.

SKX – Sketchers down 5% after they pull annual outlook. More Romo/Snoop commercials won’t help the tariff thing.

SPHR – Up 15% after it and MSG reach a restructuring deal. “This is the greatest concert venue ever created, so start using it to its potential,” says everyone.

CL – Colgate sees sales +2-4%, which is a touch light, but better than most of the recent consumer staples players.

ABBV climbs 3.6% after the company raised its profit outlook for the year on better-than-expected sales from newer autoimmune treatments.

Skechers USA (SKX) slides 5.3% after the footwear company said it’s not providing financial guidance and withdrawing its previous annual outlook due to macroeconomic uncertainty stemming from global trade policies.

WMT – Ramping up discounts …the company has also launched a program to help Chinese exporters sell their good in China – Bloomey

Technology

Alphabet is the top gainer in the Magnificent Seven stocks:

Alphabet (GOOGL) 3.9%, Meta Platforms (META) +2.7%, Amazon (AMZN) +0.5%, Tesla (TSLA) +0.6%, Nvidia (NVDA) -0.3%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.3%, Apple (AAPL) -1.2%

Apple has been making changes in a bid to catch up in AI industry… (hit bloomey wires after the close yest)

Also, the company plans to move the assembly of all US-sold iPhones to India as soon as 2026 - FT

Ad/Internets: GOOGL ad bankshots all rallied on better print / commentary - META RDDT PINS SNAP AMZN APP TTD trading up 2% to 4% in sympathy

GOOGL: +5% solid qrtr with Search/YT revs ahead; Cloud missed. Margins better. Gross rev ahead of buy side by 100bps = within: Search +10% (whisper +7-8%), Youtube +10% (whisper 10-11%), and Cloud +28% (Q4 +30%, whisper ~29%) - so bit disappointing there ..... Overall, sentiment mixed into print + positioning 6 out of 10. Better than feared enough in this tape (popping above 50D) ... GenAI products are showing traction as roll-outs accelerate with multiple encouraging signals

GOOGL vs Tesla / Autonomous wars: mgmt provided Waymo details on conf call, underscoring how it’s the overwhelming leader in autonomous rideshare .... Waymo may offer autonomous cars for personal ownership in the future (Reuters)

INTC falls 5.4% as Chief Executive Officer Lip-Bu Tan gave investors a stark diagnosis of the chipmaker’s problems on Thursday, along with the sense that it will take a while to fix them.

TMUS: -5% competitive pressures .... miss on postpaid phones (weak post AT&T beat); EBITDA ~2% ahead and mgmt lifting EBITDA/FCF outlooks. FY25 guide raised - Postpaid net adds reit (prev +5.5-6m), core EBITDA $33.2-33.7B (prev $33.1-33.6B), and adj FCF $17.5-18B (prev $17.3-18B)

Semi Momentum: SOX trading above the 21 day moving average and the short-term trend line. Soggy SOX turning s-xy”

SSNC – EPS forecast missed; JPM downgrades

VRSN – Revs were in-line; co is raising their FY2025 sales guidance as domain registrations grew in Q1

Industrials

American Water (AWK) Cut to Neutral at UBS

Boeing (BA) Raised to Buy at President Capital Management; PT $200

Canadian Solar (CSIQ) Cut to Neutral at Roth Capital Partners; PT $9

FMC Corp (FMC) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $49

RTX Corp (RTX) Raised to Hold at DZ Bank; PT $129

SolarEdge (SEDG) Raised to Market Perform at Northland; PT $12.50

Trane Technologies (TT) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $415

VinFast Auto (VFS) Cut to Neutral at BTIG

WM (WM) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $265

SLB falls 1.8% after the oilfield service provider reported adjusted Ebitda for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.