Trading Observations

• The market liked the lowly Tariffs yday afternoon combined with possible peace in Ukraine

• Closed above 6100, let's see if it can hold, a pause or sideways a few sessions would help

• All that said, the last three Fridays have been red

• Gold is up again today

• When you have stocks like HIMS up 117% YTD maybe they are right to be cautious

• Tech is weaker indeed, our desk analyst mentioned “From a sentiment perspective feels like Tech running out of gas”

• INFA on conference call mentioned "Federal business is roughly 5%, no indicator it is any different today then yesterday but we are watching it"... TYL said the same during the week

   

Futures

DOW -76

S&P -3

Nasdaq -7

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Financials / Retail / Healthcare

COIN – Down 2% on earnings that were fairly solid. Look for this to trade with Bitcoin from here.

AIG – EPS down 2% at GS on strong capital, but weak underwriting and expense management.

WFC – Announced official termination of their 2018 OCC compliance order.

GME – Up 8% on news they may “invest in Bitcoin”. Things you see at tops – retail video game purveyors pivoting to fake money.

Miami Boat Show – “Cautiously Optimistic”, per Baird.

CROX – Baird incrementally positive even after the move higher yesterday. The stock trades at 8x P/E.

WYNN - reported solid upside in Q4 on sales and EBITDA…The beat was driven by Macau and Vegas while Boston was about inline.  Problem is these casinos are VERY levered.

DLR - reported upside on core FFO but sales/EBITDA both fell slightly short while bookings dropped Q/Q and the backlog fell. Looking into 2025, the guidance is slightly below expectations on sales ($5.85B vs. the Street $6.1B) and EBITDA ($3.15B vs. the Street $3.16B).

NUS shares gain 24% after the beauty and wellness company issued a stronger-than-anticipated profit outlook for the year. Its fourth-quarter revenue also topped analysts’ expectations, though its annual sales forecast fell short.

Technology

INFA - reported upside on EPS but they fell short on sales and ARR as the company says “we encountered unexpected headwinds in the fourth quarter”. The guidance for 2025 falls short

ADBE – Firefly Video monetization coming into focus - MS

ABNB shares jump 13% after the home-rental company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is seen as positive. Baird upgraded their recommendation on the stock to outperform, noting the “strong finish” to the year.

AMAT - reported upside on FQ1 EPS w/the beat driven primarily by higher margins (gross and operating) while sales were essentially inline, but the outlook falls a tiny bit short on the top line. 

DKNG - reported Q4 sales about inline at $1.39B while EBITDA was a tiny bit better. The 13% Y/Y top line increase was driven by MUPs spiking 36% to 4.8M (about inline) while Average Revenue per MUP fell 16% to $97 (also about inline). The company is tweaking up its prior 2025 sales guide to $6.3-6.6B (vs. the prior $6.2-6.6B) while the EBITDA range is reiterated at $900MM-1B.

INTC shares rise 2.4%, putting the chipmaker’s stock on track for its biggest weekly gain since at least 1982. The stock has rallied more than 26% this week on reports of the US government possibly getting involved with a plan involving both Intel and TSMC.

PANW – reported a shortfall in FQ2 EPS/revenue but the important KPIs of Next-Gen Security ARR and RPO were both solid. The full-year op. margin guide is tweaked lower but the forecast for Next-Gen Security ARR, RPO, and revenue are unchanged.

ROKU shares jump 14% after the streaming-video platform company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations. Analysts note that platform revenues in the quarter were very strong.

TWLO shares drop 9.4% after the software firm’s first-quarter forecast fell short of estimates. Investors were disappointed that there wasn’t a guidance upgrade following a strong showing at a recent investor day. However, analysts were broadly positive on the update and raised their targets on the stock on hopes of further AI-fueled growth.

YELP shares are up 1.7% after the online review company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations. However, analysts note concerns over margin trends.

Industrials 

Defense names sold off yesterday after trump’s comments on spending cuts https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czrljmzyz7xo [bbc.com]

US Electricity demand growth through 2027 will be like adding another CA https://seekingalpha.com/news/4408399-u_s_-electricity-demand-growth-through-2027-will-be-like-adding-another-california [seekingalpha.com]

Carrier Global (CARR) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $78

ESS Tech (GWH) announces actions including resignation of CEO and evaluation of potential commercial or financial transactions

FMC Corp (FMC) Cut to Neutral at Redburn; PT $49

Griffon (GFF) Rated New Buy at Loop Capital; PT $95