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Market Snapshot
River1 Asset Management
September 02, 2025
Morning Note
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Invest with us here: https://www.river1.us/invest.php
Trading Observations
Back to a full audience as 'scary Sept' looms (usually back half of the month) https://tinyurl.com/26mt86jx [tinyurl.com]
When the S&P 500 closes August at an ATH, the index has closed red for the month of September 14 of 18 times for average losses of -1.60% https://tinyurl.com/avdymdsv [tinyurl.com]
And CTAs max long https://tinyurl.com/yc548vf6 [tinyurl.com]
With QQQ up 5 months in a row https://tinyurl.com/4euen7he [tinyurl.com]
But don't get too bearish https://tinyurl.com/4zwsdwns [tinyurl.com]
And VIX not a concern as of yet https://tinyurl.com/3zy64v55 [tinyurl.com]
Still in 6400-6500 range, but 6340 big level to hold?
Lot of data due: Jobs Friday the headliner as well as ISM manuf today, JOLTS tomorrow, ISM services Thurs
Citi surprise index highest since Dec https://tinyurl.com/5n953h86 [tinyurl.com]
Citadel a huge part of daily vols https://tinyurl.com/mrxx9wrx [tinyurl.com]
Homebuilders rising yet https://tinyurl.com/392cbyzk [tinyurl.com]
Since 1928 …. 2H September is the worst two-week period of the year with an average return of -1.38% looking back
Futures
DOW -409
S&P -73
Nasdaq -352
Financials / Consumer / Healthcare
AL – Up 6% - Air lease to be acquired by Sumimoto, not much premium.
Beta Financials – HOOD, BULL, COIN, SOFI down 3-5%. Coin related down 2-4%. UPST and AFRM down 5%.
FNMA, FMCC – Up 2.5% on a Pulte headline they are trying to sell 5% of the equity. We have no idea why anyone would buy equity in a company with $1.5T in debt lent out at 3%.
PEP – Up 5% - Elliott activist) out with major plans to overhaul the company.
STZ – Another alcohol loser down 8%. Guidance weak…beer demand week. Modelo had a quick spot at the top, but we’ll bet its over.
LCID – Down 6% on a new 8K reminding everyone they don’t make money.
MNKD, UTHR – Up 43% - Announced an expansion in their UTHR pact. 20MM shares short, torched.
NVO – Flat pre-market despite positive heart data.
UTHR surge 43% in premarket trading after the drugmaker said a late-stage study of its Tyvaso Inhalation Solution for the treatment of a lung disease met its primary efficacy endpoint.
ELF are down 3.8% in premarket trading, after Deutsche Bank downgraded the cosmetics company to hold from buy.
STZ slide 8.6% after the alcohol beverage company cut its fiscal 2026 guidance, citing weak consumer demand, which will hurt inventory rebalancing at the distributor level.
Technology
Momentum/Secular Growth: contd weakness in pre .... PLTR-2%, APP-2%, RDDT-1.7%, SHOP-1.7%, RBLX-1.6%, HOOD/U -1.5%
TSM - US Pulls TSMC’s Waiver for China Shipments of Chip Supplies
AMZN: -1% report that US Prime sign ups are slowing despite extra promotional activity. Falling short of last year's sign up total in data collected ahead of Prime Day
AI BOOM: Evercore predicts AI-driven tech revolution driving S&P 500 another 20% higher by end-2026 (Bloomberg)
GOOGL CHIPS: pos note from DA Davidson fwiw .... Google has rapidly closed the gap between its chips and Nvidia's over the last year, and the company could find huge success selling its TPU chips externally if it decides to do so, Davidson analysts say.
LRCX are down 4.1% in premarket trading, after Morgan Stanley downgraded the semiconductor-capital equipment company to underweight from equal weight.
LYFT - Lyft to Offer $450 Million Convertible Senior Notes Due 2030. Lyft to Use Proceeds to Buy Back Up to About $100 Million Class A Common Stock From Institutional Investors
META/AI: considering using AI technology from Google and OpenAI to power certain features in its social media apps while it works on ramping its native AI capabilities (The Information)
FTNT: -3% MS downgrade reflects a smaller-than-expected firewall refresh cycle
NVDA GTC 2026: confirmed GTC 2026 will be held on Mar 16 to showcase Blackwell, Rubin with HBM4, Feynman & Vera AI GPUs
ZS: +2% post MS upgrade - "Co has a strong position in zero-trust along with a longer-term platformization strategy; believes the Red Canary acquisition enhances Zscaler's AI security capabilities. Sees valuation upside"
Industrials
TSLA: Tesla cuts Model 3 price in China, new longest-range version available (Reuters) .... debut in India has yielded lackluster sales numbers so far, with orders of just over 600 cars since the mid-Jul launch (Bloomberg) .... saw a further sales slump in certain European markets (France, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Sweden) during the month of Aug (Reuters)
Acuity Inc. (AYI) upgraded to overweight from equal weight; $380 PT
Ametek (AME) upgraded to hold from sell at TD Cowen; $180 PT
American Axle & Manufacturing (AXL) upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; $8 PT
Fortive (FTV) downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley; $50 PT
Frontier Group (ULCC) upgraded to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank; $8 PT
Hexcel (HXL) upgraded to buy from hold at UBS; $80 PT
Hubbell (HUBB) upgraded to overweight from equal weight; $490 PT
NIO Inc (NIO) upgraded to buy from overweight at Huatai Securities; $7.56 PT
QXO, Inc. (QXO) initiated overweight at Morgan Stanley; $35 PT
Ralliant Corp. (RAL) initiated overweight at Morgan Stanley; $55 PT
5E Advanced Materials (FEAM) initiated buy at HC Wainwright; $7.50 PT