Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
April 04, 2025

Morning Note

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Trading Observations

CHINA ANNOUNCES EXTRA 34% TARIFFS ON US GOODS https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/04/china-to-impose-34percent-retaliatory-tariff-on-all-goods-imported-from-the-us.html [cnbc.com]
US March nonfarm payrolls rose 228k m/m, Bureau of Labor Statistics data show. Median est. +140k (+80k to +200k)
US MARCH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.2%; EST. 4.1%
TRUMP TELLS FOREIGN INVESTORS: MY POLICIES WILL NEVER CHANGE
Market pricing in now 5 rate cuts
JPM upping recession probability to 60% from 40%
Fear and Greed at 6%, can’t get much worse

Futures

DOW -1034

S&P -135

Nasdaq -491

VIX Highest Level Since 2020.

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

ICE Brent Crude

Bitcoin

Financials / Retail / Healthcare

Table below of the Fed Funds Futures now point to a whopping 5 rate cuts in 2025. This number was 2 a week ago.

Financials, consumer and technology-linked stocks are among those sliding after China retaliated against new US tariffs:

JPMorgan (JPM) -4.4%, Bank of America (BAC) -4.7%, Wells Fargo (WFC) -4.6%, Goldman Sachs (GS) -5.5%

JPM – Takes recession chances to 60% from 40%.

Beta Financials – SOFI down 8%, HOOD 6%, AFRM 11%, YPST 10%, large cap banks like GS down 6%. GS mentioned trading activity was 9.5/10 yesterday. All feels like too much IMO as I’d bet we stop short of a credit crisis.

FIS – Baird thinks this is a good entry point for the stock and like risk/reward into earnings.

Hotels – Google Trends show a small push away from Canadians doing US vacation searches.

DLTR – CEO bought 500k worth of stock. Credit to him for sticking his neck out a bit.

Redfin: Roughly two-thirds (68.4%) of U.S. condos that sold in February sold for less than their original asking price, up from 63.3% a year earlier and the highest February level in five years….The housing market has been cooling as inventory has climbed and elevated prices and mortgage rates have dampened demand. This has given buyers who are in the market more bargaining power, often allowing them to negotiate a lower price. Redfin agents say the condo market has been slowing especially quickly—particularly in Florida—as rising insurance costs and new safety regulations cause HOA fees to soar.

Whirlpool lays off 651 from Iowa factory, cites weaker consumer demand – Des Moines Register

W slides 10%, putting the stock on track to extend declines after Citi downgraded the online furniture retailer to neutral. The broker said President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement “created significant exposure”

Technology

Meta and FTC set for a federal court showdown, testing new Trump-appointed antitrust regulator's stance on Big Tech - FT

META - Meta Nears Release of New AI Model After Performance Hiccups

AMZN rolled out a new beta feature called "Buy for Me," which allows users to purchase items from third-party websites directly through the Amazon Shopping app.

AI video startup Runway AI secured over $300M in funding from investors including Nvidia

DKNG - City of Baltimore sues sport betting companies DraftKings and FanDuel for driving compulsive gambling – Wash Post

Intel and Taiwan Semiconductor reportedly tentatively agree to form chipmaking JV – Bloomey

TikTok – Trump on Thurs hinted that a TikTok deal announcement is imminent and reiterated that he would consider granting Beijing tariff relief in exchange for it approving a transaction (although before tariff relief can be granted, it would help if the White House figured out what tariff it is actually charging China, as this still seems to be a mystery).

Industrials

DuPont (DD) falls 8% after China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said it is probing DuPont China over alleged breach of antitrust law.

TSLA drops 6% as JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Ryan Brinkman reduces estimates for the company’s earnings, citing car-buyer backlash against Elon Musk after first-quarter vehicle deliveries fell short of expectations.

Tesla investors brace for another year of sales decline as backlash against Musk grows – Reuters

Air freight costs surge as companies rush to get products into the US before Trump’s tariffs take effect - FT

XOM 8-K on Q1 earnings considerations suggested upside risk to consensus EPS on the back of better upstream.