Calendar

This Week – ORCL, ADBE and KR earnings, but that’s it. The real show is the debate Tuesday and CPI Wednesday into PPI Thursday hopefully giving the 50bp cut fans what they want.

Tuesday – Presidential Debate, Fed’s Barr speaks (last Fed speaker before quiet Period into Sept 18^th announcement)

Wednesday – CPI, KR earnings

Thursday – PPI, ADBE earnings

Friday – Import/Export Prices

Trading Observations

• The tape is strong today in a slate of news that correctly recaps the last decade.

  • TSM said their chip sales are up 33% y/y driven by AI, and ORCL is up 9% on similar AI and tech related positivity.

  • Juxtapose this against a delay in MAX rollouts at BA, Jeep/Chrysler and BMW lower on recalls, and ALLY down big on people not being able to afford their car loans.

  • Conclusion – High capital intense businesses are hard, digital businesses are easier.

  • We get a debate tonight and CPI in the morning tomorrow, so I doubt any rally will be massive as we probably find a level, then tread water until the show.

Futures

DOW +37

S&P +16

Nasdaq +70

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

RV Sales down 9% in July. Every lot I drive by is stuffed with inventory.

ALLY – Down 9% on a recent data dump at a Barclays Conference. Remember this bank is the old GMC Financial and has a huge portfolio of auto loans. These loans are starting to crack as “borrowers struggle with high inflation and cost of living”.

ULTA – Initiated at sell and $300 PT, which is rate for the street. Calling for sales declines through year end. She also has some earnings deleveraging on this, which you’d have to to be at sell because the multiple is already quite low.

TCBI, TFC – Said to be winning in the oil and gas lending markets per Bloomberg.

DKNG – Upgraded to Neutral at Exane.

Technology

AAPL Event Recaps are everywhere – The crux is “why am I upgrading?” The street was hoping for some sort of killer AI application and didn’t really get it, hence the small selloff. The stock is also up from $170 to $220 since April.

TSM – August revenue +33% as AI chip demand remains robust.

ORCL – Up 8% on what was a solid quarter all around. AI Capex spend was outlined specifically and looked good, which could help that trade some today. ADBE is next up Thursday with what could be a similar datapoint.

PYPL - This name is on a roll, and the Will Ferrell commercial is terrific.

JPM positive on Cyber Security names CTBR, VRNS, and ZS as they see hockey stick accelerations coming.

PAY – Baird positive on a conference presentation and on being a fast grower of 20%+ with increasing margins.

Industrials 

BA – MAX production said to reach 42 per month by March 2025 instead of September 2024.

TSLA – EU tariffs lowered to 8% from 9%.

JCI – Upgraded to buy at BAC.

STLA – Down 3% on Government Probe of recent Jeep fires.

BMW – Cuts outlook.