Market Snapshot

Morning Note

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Calendar

This Week – Retail earnings and a host of Fed speakers abound. The earnings feel like the bigger deal unless someone sends a message June cuts aren’t coming.

Wednesday – 2 Fed Speakers, LOW, TGT, TJX earnings (mixed)

Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims, WSM, ROST, ADSK, WDAY, DECK earrings.

Friday – 3 Fed Speakers (plus Powell Sunday)

Trading Observations

  • A few moving parts today

  • UK CPI hot

  • Global Rundown: futs another soft start; sentiment taking hit on CNN report Israel could strike Iran nuclear facilities

  • House appears close to passing a reconciliation bill before the weekend to hand to Senate (which will make changes so a long way from done)

  • PANW off a bit on numbers but solid report so see how other security names trade

  • 6000 resistance vs. 5900 first support to be tested on open

  • Market still very overbought and some weakness wouldn't surprise,  especially with complacency setting in https://tinyurl.com/3wbc39kr [tinyurl.com] 

  • But as long as 5750 holds, constructive

  • Credit becoming more of a focus with Japan 30-yr highest yield ever https://tinyurl.com/2fu9ej46 [tinyurl.com]

  • QE coming???? Big jump in CDS https://tinyurl.com/58fj53d5 [tinyurl.com]

  • Hedge funds not believing the rally, massive shorts on Nasdaq https://tinyurl.com/3k34u448 [tinyurl.com] 

  • CHART of the Day: If you like China, BABA the one? https://tinyurl.com/yxcsmynn [tinyurl.com]

  • Earnings revisions improving https://tinyurl.com/z3zejbwd [tinyurl.com]

  • II Bulls still only 42% despite the persistent rally, notably back above bears but not yet in sweet spot for uptrend https://tinyurl.com/mv7pftf2 [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW -388

S&P -40

Nasdaq -146

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Gold

Bitcoin

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

FHN – Removed from Baird’s Bearish Fresh Pick list after the down move. Victory lap for the call as it was down 16% compared to 6.5% for the bank index.

Baird on Fin Tech – This type of slowing growth environment has been met with higher multiples for names like MA, V, FI, FIS, and GPN as the quality of earnings growth becomes harder to find.

Crypto High Beta all up 2-5% - Hood +4%, COIN +2%

Technology

NVDA - spokesperson said Hopper demand very strong and Blackwell production on track to ramp in 2H.

NVDA - Upgraded to Buy at New Street Research.

PLTR - Traded +17% on a beat & raise. PLTR winning in the market because products are production ready vs vague prototyping. Seeing strength in US Commercial business. Customer counts increased 83% y/y …Introduced Warp Speed for the re-Industrialization (like Spacex that developed from scratch via internal engineering)

Industrials 

CAT – turned negative after big Q2 EPS beat. Reports Q2 EPS $5.99 ex-items vs FactSet $5.56. Q2 revenue $16.69B vs FactSet $16.91B. Demand numbers were pretty weak.

Lucid (LCID) - Raised to Neutral at Cantor; PT $4. LCID production guide unchanged and announced PIF committed another $1.5B.

Latest Media

Wall Street's Top Indicators Are Sending Mixed Signals.

Recession or Resilience?

Interesting Tweets

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