Market Snapshot

Aug 14

Author

River1 Asset Management
August 14, 2024

NYSE Ticker: RVER

Channel Calendar

This Week – The earnings are much lighter from here and mainly retail. HD and WMT the only important names.

Monday: N/A

Tuesday: PPI, HD earnings

Wednesday: CPI

Thursday: Retail Sales, Philly Fed, Jobless Claims, WMT, and DE

Friday: Housing Starts. Goolsbee from Fed speaks 

Torrent Trading Observations

  • CPI 2.9% vs 3% estimate, following PPI yesterday.  Street might have been hoping for more as the 10 year has moved higher.

  • Big rally into it, so anything hot (unlikely) potentially causes a wobble.  The question is can we power higher if merely inline? 

  • Closed above 5390 further calming the waters and now becomes first support 5451 (50-day) and 5490 resistance

  • II BULLS DOWN to 44.6% from 46.9% (below 40% contrarian bullish) despite the rally

  • Mortgage refi – no surprise up 35% last week after rates have come in.

  • Oscillators still oversold but rising

  • A close below yesterday’s closing price is what bulls would love to avoid for Nasdaq & SPY

Wave Watch

Fear/Greed Index = 25/100

CNN Fear & Greed Index

Mainstream Metrics

10 Year

GOLD

BITCOIN

Streaming Sectors

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

SCHW - Schwab reported Core net new assets brought to the company by new and existing clients for July of $29.0 billion.

Technology

DELL shares climb 2.9% as Barclays raised to equal-weight from underweight.

CART - repurchased 3.7m shares of its common stock from D1 Iconoclast Holdings for a total purchase price of $117m.

EAT shares slide 13% after the owner of Chili’s and Maggiano’s Little Italy reported fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share that missed Wall Street expectations.

CAH shares gain 6.3% after the health-care distributor lifted its adjusted earnings per share forecast for 2025 as its fourth-quarter results top expectations.

SPHR shares are up 7.0% after the live-entertainment company reported a smaller net loss for the fourth quarter than analysts expected.

VSCO shares climb 14% after the lingerie retailer reported preliminary adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that topped the average analyst estimate

Industrials 

Emerson Electric (EMR) downgraded to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan

ESAB Corp. (ESAB) - Board approves 5.0M share repurchase program - 8-K

Hexcel (HXL) downgraded to sector perform from outperform at RBC Capital

Johnson Controls International (JCI) upgraded to sector perform from underperform at RBC Capital Markets

L3Harris Technologies (LHX) downgraded to sector perform from outperform at RBC Capital

Meritage Homes (MTG) upgraded to outperform at Wolfe

PulteGroup (PHM) downgraded to peerperform at Wolfe

Southwest Airlines (LUV) - Elliott to launch a proxy fight with Southwest Airlines, plans to nominate up to 10 directors to LUV's board – media reports

Tidal Tweets

Valuation still seeing the biggest headwind

For the William O'Neill followers - Tuesday's action qualified as a follow-through day on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Since the latter index corrected as much as 13% from its peak, it seems a more significant event - for those who don’t, a primer

Rapid Review

Openwater Opinion