Market Snapshot

Author

River1 Asset Management
January 13, 2025

NYSE Ticker: RVER

Trading Observations

 

Futures

DOW -92

S&P -48

Nasdaq -244

CNN Fear/Greed Index

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Financials / Retail / Healthcare

JPM Healthcare conference this week, and it’s a big deal. JNJ is buying ITCI to kick things off, which should help Biotech in general. They like LLY and BMY. MRK remains the most controversial, but JPM is positive on valuation. Obesity remains a theme. UNH is reporting Thursday and not in attendance. 

Insurance – Fire headlines are worse than the stocks are reacting. ALL is only down 2%. Chubb down 1%. GS is defending them, but based on loss numbers far better than the tape is reporting.

Bitcoin related – Everything is 4-5% lower this morning. Mining name BTBT is down another 7% on news December mining output was 28% lower.

FNMA – Fannie and Freddie up 5% on “Trump will hook them up” vibes.

ANF – Down 7% on light Q4 revs. Small sports player AS down 9% on the same.

PZZA, LULU, URBN +2% on positive headlines from Christmas and new builds at Papa Johns.

STZ – Constellation Brands cut at JPM and Jeffries on weak Corona and Modelo sales (GLP1s and other vices ahead).

LULU higher on boosted 4Q sales, profit outlook…. Remember this was less than a market multiple when we wrote on it.. It is still cheap today at 1.2x market multiple vs the average... 2x going back to the GFC

MRNA cutting 2025 rev forecast – BIG MISS

ANF slips 10% after an increase it its fourth-quarter sales outlook isn’t enough to reassure investors the retailer could keep up the fast pace of growth.

HUM gains 5%, climbing with other health insurers with Medicare Advantage plans, after Medicare released a proposed plan that could allow an increase in 2026 payments for the companies.

Technology

Magnificent Seven: Nvidia leads the group lower as a fresh rise in bond yields weighed on tech and growth stocks. Alphabet (GOOGL) -0.5%, Amazon (AMZN) -0.6%, Apple (AAPL) -1%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.5%, Meta Platforms (META) -0.6%, Nvidia (NVDA) -3% and Tesla (TSLA) -3%

AAPL remains funding short / negative headlines cont in 2025: Ming-Chi Kuo Friday am warned that the iPhone maker will "encounter more challenging hurdles in 2025, including nearly stagnant iPhone growth." ... Zuckerberg also dunked on Apple during Rogan pod (excessive fees, lack of innovation; we’d make twice as much profit without random rules)

AAPL: lost smartphone unit share in 2024 as Chinese OEMs saw a spike in shipments (Bloomberg)

AAPL chain: Asian Apple suppliers hit on reports of weak iPhone demand .. watch CRUS SWKS QRVO MU KN JBL amongst others in the US

AI: Zuckerberg stressed that 2025 massive year for AI ... 100% focus for most; talked down immediate impact of quantum computing (10+ yrs out) (Similar to comments from NVDA IONQ-13%, RGTI-17%, QUBT-9%, etc)

Crypto: proxies down 3-4% (ie MSTR COIN HOOD) .. Bitcoin $91.5k as of 6:25am ET; clear sentiment / px action shift since peaking Dec 17

HPE - won an AI server contract with xAI worth more than $1B, beating our firms like SMCI and DELL – Bloomy

META: will be replacing its mid-level software engineers with AI, starting as early as this year ... Zuckerberg urged President-elect Donald Trump to stop the EU from fining U.S. tech companies, which he says were forced by the EU to pay more than $30B for legal violations over the past two decades

NVDA: -3% in pre / below 100D as global semis under heavy pressure in every region of world .... Co defending aggressively vs latest Biden new rules imposing tougher restrictions (perhaps not so insignificant); MS out also saying they think CFO sounded hedged on near-term upside, sounding enthusiastic for BW but

TSLA: MS lifting PT to $430 - sees scope for 2025 to be "a year where the market's appreciation for Tesla's unique combination of skills can be further reflected in the multiple," offsetting the relatively well-known challenges to the EV market

TikTok – SCOTUS justices sounded skeptical about TikTok’s argument against the federal law forcing a ban or sale of the company, suggesting they won’t intervene to prevent the app from going dark in the US later this month – WSJ

TSMC Q4 profit expected to surge 58% on strong AI chip demand – Reuters

UBER - CEO Dara Khosrowshahi will be in Washington for Donald Trump’s inauguration, according to the company. Uber plans to host an inauguration party with Elon Musk’s X social media firm and The Free Press.

Industrials 

Caterpillar (CAT) Raised to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $365

CF Industries (CF) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $105

Crown Holdings (CCK) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $105

JinkoSolar (JKS) Cut to Sell at Daiwa; PT $20

Kratos (KTOS) Raised to Buy at B Riley; PT $35

Linde (LIN) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $515

Mosaic (MOS) Raised to Neutral at Piper Sandler

Nutrien (NTR) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $58

Nutrien (NTR) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT C$72.20

XPeng, Inc (XPEV) upgraded to hold from sell at UOB Kay Hian Securities

$TSLA - Tesla’s stock price is similar to 2021…but not in a good way!