Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
July 29, 2025

Morning Note

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Trading Observations

The earnings parade begins – As always there are winners and losers, but we read some pain despite the green market this morning.
UNH likely drags the Dow down as people playing a pop were just renters and likely all bail today.
Sectors that look bad –
- Housing related as WHR, CARR and SWK all lower on bad outlooks
- Cruise lines – NCLH and RCL both lower on higher costs, lower revenue
Retail Darlings – SPOT, PYPL lower, SOFI higher
Conclusion – Feels like a rally that isn’t going to hold.

Futures

DOW +65

S&P +15

Nasdaq +100

52-week return –

RVER +23.45%

Nasdaq +17.36%

SPX +14.04%

Seems good

Source Bloomberg

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All investing involves risk. This presentation contains forward-looking statements which are inherently uncertain and should not be relied upon when making investment decisions. This is not a recommendation of securities and should not be construed as investment advice.

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

SRPT – Up 40% - Complete about face by the FDA saying they can resume gene therapy.

UNH – Down 3% - Bottom pickers didn’t get what they wanted as the new EPS guide is “at least $16” vs $20.40 street. 20x the $16 would be $320, and given the environment, the market doesn’t want to give it a market multiple understandably.

SOFI – Up 9% - Q2 revenue of $858M vs $805M estimate doing the heavy lifting here. FY EBITDA guide up 7% vs expectations.

HDFS – Bloomberg reporting that Harley Davidson Financial could sell a stake and a loan portfolio to Pimco and KKR, raising $5B.

CBRE – Broker out with strong results and guidance. Should help JLL and NMRK.

WHR – Whirlpool down 15% on 2025 outlook cut thanks to tariffs. Yield players all losing two dividends today. Carrier down 8% as well with similar issues.

SWK – Stanley Works Black and Decker down 8% on a sales miss.

RCL, NCLH – Both cruisers down on lower revenues against higher ship costs, including launch pricing.

PII – Polaris up 10% on solid sales, which is likely going to surprise some secular short sellers as well.

MRK – Down 4% - Cutting $3B in costs as it’s about to lose its Keytruda patent.

Technology

PYPL – Down 5% - Nice beat, but the Q3 guide missed slightly. Branded checkout continues to tick down, and Venmo up. Venmo +12% should help hold the name in, but there’s no accelerant yet. GAAP EPS at $5.25 vs $76 is very cheap (14x P/E).

FTNT – Baird earnings preview positive on solid checks and macro.

SPOT – Down 7% as the stock price was $700 going out and the company lost money this quarter. Their attempts to compete with You Tube have proved expensive.

Industrials

UPS – Down 3% - They pulled guidance on “economic uncertainty”. China volume was down 35% in May and June, so it’s tough to model what reality will end up being.

ALB – Downgraded to underperform at Baird on speculator driven lithium prices likely having risk of holding long-term.

Upgraded – ALK, ALLE, GNRC

FLS – The FT is out saying BHI may outbid Flowserve for Chart Industries at $13.6B.