Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
February 04, 2025

NYSE Ticker: RVER

Trading Observations

Markets fading after seeing a rally post PLTR and Canada last night
We’re back to Tariffs being just a negotiation
China did not have the same rollover technique as the Mexicans or Canadians but the markets shrugged the Chinese Levy's off somewhat
The Hang Seng initially sold off but closed up 2.8%
6100 remains resistance for the S&P, with tactical support at last Monday’s low of 5963, yday's low of 5936, and more structural bull market support around 5700
Both $SPY and $QQQ tried really, really hard to fill their gaps today but neither succeeded
JOLTS and Factory orders at 10am ET

Futures

DOW -95

S&P -1

Nasdaq +20

CNN Fear/Greed Index

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Financials / Retail / Healthcare

PYPL – Down 8% - Folks are saying the 6% payment growth hit, but expectations had been ratcheting up to 7-8%, and the branded checkout business is a bit behind expectations. Venmo is more than doing its share here. The $15B buyback program is a huge deal compared to the ~$80B EV this morning, but the market remains infatuated with revenue growth, and 4% isn’t enough for PYPL.

HOOD – Up 1% on offering “Superbowl Contracts” which are just bets. DKNG lower.

APO, KKR – Both down 2% on solid quarters, great AUM raising in Private Credit, and high expectations after strong runs.

Vanguard announced they are cutting fees on 168 mutual funds and ETFs. VOO is about to overtake SPY for the first time ever. Blackrock and Schwab would be the public losers here.

Restaurant Comps for January – Slightly worse than expected per Baird, but weather.

LULU – January checks at Baird were constructive and Bloomberg store traffic monitors have strengthened lately. Sentiment stronger as the stock has outperformed the S&P by 10% of late.

DKNG -3%/FLUT -2%...Stock trading app Robinhood says it will take wagers on the Super Bowl in all 50 states this week, using the same event contracts approach that it took to allow Americans to bet on the presidential election last year.

Additionally, Ohio Governor proposes to hike tax on sports betting to 40% (from 20%).

State Farm looks to raise property insurance rates in California by 22% after warning that the recent LA fires were the most expensive disaster in the company’s history – Wash Post

PEP – lower after 4Q sales missed ….

NVO - Investors seek answers from Novo Nordisk over its next-gen obesity drug, CagriSema (the trial data wiped $125B off Novo shares) – Novo Nordisk's next-gen obesity drug Cagrisema: investors seek answers | Reuters [reuters.com]

MRK– lower after 2025 sales outlook missed; pauses shipments of HPV vaccine Gardasil to China

Technology

Magnificent Seven: Alphabet (GOOGL) +1%, Amazon (AMZN) +0.6%, Apple (AAPL) -0.4%, Microsoft (MSFT) +0.2%, Meta Platforms (META) +0.8%, Nvidia (NVDA) +0.5% and Tesla (TSLA) +0.8%

AAPL: closed back below its 100D; laggard within megacap

ADBE: new intelligent contract capabilities in Acrobat AI Assistant to simplify working with contracts.

AMZN bogeys: 4Q AWS +19%, revs $188-189B, OI $20B+, 1Q guide top-end revs $159B, OI $18-19B

BUYBACK BID (reminder): emotionless VWAP bid is here... GS: "We currently see ~45% of the S&P 500 is in open window with ~60% in open window by the end of the week"

GOOGL: China launching an antitrust investigation into Google

GOOGL: #s tonight /.. bogeys: Search/YT rev growth +11-12%, EBIT $31B+, Capex $13-14B

NVDA: MS - "shipment forecast for GG200 NVL72 this yr has been signitctly revised downward from 30-35k uits to 20-25k uits, with a pessimistic scenario suggesting that shipments could fall below 20k units"

NVDA: Senators Warren and Hawley call on the Commerce Dept. to impose more stringent limits on the sale of Nvidia GPUs (Washington Post)

NXPI (automotive) climbs 1% after the chipmaker reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations.

PLTR: +22% AIP continues to be a differentiator for them. sees FY 25 revs $3.75B (est $3.54B) - driven by "untamed organic growth" in demand for its AI software; Q4 revs +36% ahead of buyside (sales to US govt +45%); crushes Q1 guide ... FCF over $200M above Street

o MS upgrades on growth outlook

META: up 11 in a row; best win streak since '15 ... early AI adopter; arguably one of the cleanest story in all of tech. Lot less hair on it that semis/software

SMCI: +5% jumps as will give a business update on Feb. 11 following the market close

TikTok - Trump issues executive order to create US sovereign wealth fund that could potentially buy TikTok Trump orders creation of US sovereign wealth fund, says it could buy TikTok | Reuters [reuters.com]

TSLA – Sales decline in CA w Model 3 plunging 36%