Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
May 06, 2025

Morning Note

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Calendar

This Week – The only interesting earnings we see are PLTR and DIS. The rest looks like cleanup and a likely a do-nothing Fed.

Tuesday – Trade Balance (Might be interesting because of pull forward pre tariffs).

Wednesday – FOMC (Bloomberg says 2% chance of a rate cut).

Thursday – Jobless Claims (Watch these, 300k is very bad), NY Fed Inflation Expectations.

Friday – 6 Fed Speakers.

Trading Observations

Futures down 0.75%
Volumes light, winning streak over
Gold up, yields up, working off the overbought
PLTR (High Bar) earnings likely to spill over into weakness in growth names. KEY will be if buyers come in on the dip.
Support 5600 vs. resistance at 5750
Crude up 2%, dollar a touch weaker as Taiwan intervened
China services show weakness and China will hold a press briefing on policies to stabilize markets on Wed
No word on tariffs, we need some announcements soon or VIX will creep back up.
Money Market Funds keep getting inflows https://tinyurl.com/28mkf84d [tinyurl.com]
Bear market rally? Similar to 2022 https://tinyurl.com/2kbubbxn [tinyurl.com]
Crude cheaper but not reflected in prices at the pump https://tinyurl.com/yncvpvrb [tinyurl.com]
High end credit card spending slowing https://tinyurl.com/yab9kz2j [tinyurl.com]
Market getting used to idea of high tariffs https://tinyurl.com/mr2fsw4t [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW -288

S&P -50

Nasdaq -247

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Gold

Bitcoin

Financials / Retail / Healthcare

SG – Down 2% - JPM downgrading Sweetgreen to neutral on softening demand in higher income demographics.

HIMS – Down 7.5% on margin miss. People are playing this as a GLP1 distributor (NVO), and profit competition within the industry seems to be heating up.

KLG – Kellogg’s down 7% on weak outlook for cereal.

LMND – Up 9% on boosted FY forecast.

PTLO – Portillos down 7% on an in-line print.

FIS – Q2 guidance 5% below the street on lower margin outlook.

BAM - $25B in Q1 fundraising with private credit leading.

Restaurant survey work from Baird shows a negative trend, in-line with Q1 which weather played a factor.

Boat Trends from Baird show a continued decline as well on economic concerns.

VNO – Reported office leasing volumes in NYC +22% Q/Q and +144% y/y.

BLK, C – Both CEOs headed to Middle East for the Trump visit.

Macau Tourism up 40% y/y over the May Holiday.

CELH – Celsius down 3.5% on profit miss.

Technology

AMD #s tonight / 7.2% implied move .. Bogeys hearing Q1 Revs: $7.3B vs street at $7.1B vs guide $6.8B - $7.4B; Q2 Revs: $7B vs street at $7.23B; Q2 GM: possibly hit the $800M MI3OB writeoff, 45% vs street at 53%; CY26 AI GPU: 56.5B vs street at $7.4B .... bullish Bluefin checks from Monday have bogeys going higher

APP: #s Wed night / 20% implied move .. bogeys hearing: Q1 Ad Revs: $1.1B+ vs street at $1.047B; Q2 Ad Revs: $1.15B+ vs street at $1.115B

Autonomous/GOOGL: Waymo business announced plans to build autonomous vehicles in partnership w/MGA (Magna) at a new plant in Arizona (Reuters)

DASH M&A: as reported; to buy Deliveroo for about £2.9B ($3.9B), as pushes into more overseas markets .... ~40% premium when offer was made back on April 4; follows Wolt deal back in '22

GOOGL: U.S. DOJ seeks to break up Google's ad-tech products, Reuters says; DOJ said in a court filing that the proposed remedies, including divestitures, are necessary to end Google's monopolies and restore competition in the spac

ICHR: -12% guides below ... top 2 customers AMAT / LRCX

LSCC: -6% not great commentary .. qrtr/guide inlinish - “While we are encouraged by our progress, we are monitoring the market environment, along with the broader industry, as it could have an impact on our outlook”

NVDA: Jensen hitting the pavement in May; 5/12: Jensen arrives in Taiwan to meet with supply chain partners including TSMC, Foxconn, and Quanta; 5/17: expected to host another "Trillion Dollar" dinner to discuss building a US supply chain. 5/19: keynote address at Computex; 5/21: expected to host a press conf; 5/28: NVIDIA earnings

NVDA: Jensen on CNBC @ 230pm ET ... believe with McDermott

PINS: #s Thur night / 12% implied move .. sentiment pretty terrible .. bogeys: Q1 Revs: $850M vs street at $847M; Q2 Revs: $930M vs street at $962M

PLTR: -8.5% extremely tough = 88% rip in month + trading @ 97x sales ... solid #s with Q2 revs guided to 38% y/y vs street at 33%; Q1 $884M vs street at $862.9M another acceleration to 39%; EBITDA well ahead. US commerical 71% y/y acceleration vs last quarters 70% on a much easier comp; US Gov 45% y/y, inline with last quarter on a 6 ppts tougher comp

SHOP: #s Thur am / 11% implied move .. bogeys: Q1 GMV: 24% vs street at 23% y/y; Q1 Revs: $2.38B vs street at $2.34B; Q2 Revs: $2.5B vs street at $2.5B

SMCI: full results / call tonight post brutal negative pre back on April 30

TSLA: -1.8% suffers a sharp drop in UK vehicle sales in Apr (-62% Y/Y); Cybertruck is “in crisis” as inventory surges (Electrek)

UBER Autonomous Headlines +VE: moves deeper into autonomous by significantly expanding its existing partnership w/ WRD (WeRide), adding 15 addtl cities globally over next five yrs, incl in Europe ... announced an autonomous driving partnership w/ PONY (Pony AI) https://techcrunch.com/2025/05/05/uber-and-weride-set-their-robotaxi-sights-on-15-more-cities/?utm_campaign=social&utm_source=X&utm_medium=organic [techcrunch.com]

Industrials

Fastenal (FAST) reported April Average Daily Sales +6.5%, compared to Baird’s recently lowered expectations of +6.9%. FAST unchanged in pre-market trading.

F/Ford: -3% suspending FY guide (said was tracking inline w/ prior view if not for tariffs) and warns of a ~$1.5B EBIT headwind this year from tariffs (recall GM forecast a $4-5B headwind)

CMI - Cummins withdraws 2025 financial forecast on tariff woes

JELD down big on cautious industry comments