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Market Snapshot
River1 Asset Management
February 27, 2025
NYSE Ticker: RVER
Calendar
This Week – Today feels like we watch to see if this
Thursday – Jobless Claims, Durable Goods, Home Sales
Friday – PCE. Trade Balance could be interesting.
Trading Observations
Bounce attempt #2, this time with solid NVDA earnings (though reaction muted and will see if it holds or fades as the day goes on as many have done this qtr)
NVDA + SNOW higher, CRM + EBAY + A lower on numbers
Futures off highs, DOW turns negative as Trump announces tariffs go into effect March 4th
Jobless Claims rose 22k to 242k vs est 221k. PCE tomorrow
Levels to watch the same, 6010 first hurdle, 6075 more meaningful resistance vs. 5908 and 5850 more significant support below
AAII BULLS down to 19%, the first dip below 20% since March 2023
AAII BEARS up to 60%, the first time at 60 since Sept 2022 https://tinyurl.com/4wn36fpe [tinyurl.com]
Lot of talk of rotation out of US, and while it has upticked of late, still hasn't broken the downtrend line that goes back to 2010 https://tinyurl.com/2dx2yr7d [tinyurl.com]
Though China looks like starting a stage 2 uptrend https://tinyurl.com/5n75s6ks [tinyurl.com]
Stock picking is back https://tinyurl.com/4vbtbktj [tinyurl.com]
Futures
DOW -87
S&P +10
Nasdaq +95
CNN Fear/Greed Index
10-Year Yield
Oil
BITCOIN
Financials / Retail / Healthcare
Risk Back on Today, Especially in Crypto – MARA beat +13%, HOOD, RIOT and WULF +5%.
WBA – Up 7% on Sycamore being back in to take the company private and split it into three parts. See our You Tube video from months ago on the subject here.
GS – Downgraded to market perform at KBW. John Waldron has been given a seat on the board, putting his as front runner for the next CEO.
Budget – Speaker Johnson said to be preparing an all-Republican budget for next month.
MARA rises 14% after the crypto mining firm reported total revenue for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
PZZA gains 6% after fourth quarter profit and revenue beat estimates.
ROOT rises 19% after the insurance company reported net premiums written in the fourth quarter above what analysts estimated.
SG falls 11% after the salad chain issued weaker-than-anticipated same-store sales forecasts for the current quarter and full year.
Technology
Alphabet (GOOGL) +1%, Amazon (AMZN) +1.8%, Apple (AAPL) -0.3%, Microsoft (MSFT) +0.4%, Meta Platforms (META) +1.5% and Tesla (TSLA) +2%
NVDA - 2.7% higher after the chipmaker at the center of the AI spending boom delivered good-but-not-great quarterly numbers. Record quarter in Data Center to $30.8B, up 17% q/q and up 112% y/y. Talked up partners (TSMC, APH, Vertiv, SK Hynix, MU, Foxconn, Quanta, etc.. Samsung absent)
AMBA climbs 11% after the semiconductor device company gave an outlook that is seen as strong.
CRM shares fall 3% after the software company gave an outlook that is weaker than expected.
EBAY - falls 9% after projecting sales for the current quarter that missed analysts’ estimates. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Iannone attributed the guidance to soft demand in Germany and the UK.
META - Reportedly Instagram is considering launching Reels as a separate app – The Information
PSTG declines 9% after the cloud storage firm provided disappointing guidance for operating income. Also, the company’s fourth-quarter subscription services revenue failed to meet estimates.
SNOW jumps 12% after the cloud-computing company gave an outlook for product revenue that is above the analyst consensus.
TDOC tumbles 10% after the virtual health-care provider forecast revenue and adjusted Ebitda for the full year that disappointed Wall Street. Analysts noted continued challenges in the firm’s BetterHelp segment.
Industrials
KTOS - Solid Print, DD Organic Growth in 2025 and 2026…2025 guidance was established mostly in line with Street estimates, with significant growth investments planned across end markets to support healthy 10% organic growth expectations in 2025, stepping up to 13%-15% organic growth in 2026.
Energy Recovery (ERII) announces $30M share repurchase program
Freeport (FCX) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $48
HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital (HASI) initiated overweight at Wells Fargo Securities
Olin (OLN) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $28
Steel Dynamics (STLD) Raised to Peerperform at Wolfe
Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) Raised to Buy at DA Davidson; PT $185
Tesla (TSLA) Raised to Buy at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $345.76
Westlake Corp (WLK) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $110
3 Months of Nothing
