Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
November 20, 2025

Morning Note

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Trading Observations

NVDA with the stick save, will it hold? That the key
Memory demand massive so should be a tailwind for MU + SNDK
WALMART SEEING LESS TARIFF IMPACT THAN EXPECTED EARLIER IN YEAR
Hope for the consumer https://tinyurl.com/56fn8bps [tinyurl.com]
6712 the 50-day, but need a CLOSE above 6775 to give people reason to believe Santa coming to town
Let's hope things build as the day goes on
Fed on deck next (Dec 10th) and odds of cut down to 25%, I still think we get a cut so risk to upside?
Oscillators oversold
AAII Bulls subdues at 32.6% vs. 43.6% Bears
Non-profitable tech, wow https://tinyurl.com/2jacapbp [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW +487

S&P +109

Nasdaq +526

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Gold

Bitcoin

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

EXAS – Up another 18% after reports a deal to sell to Abbott is near. Madison, WI losing a good one here to Illinois.

WMT – Up 4%. Holiday Season is off to a good start, and they are saying share take in high income consumers is real. Comps were +4.5% and Sames Club +3.8%, which compares to flat for HD. They are also headed to the Nasdaq from NYSE, which might help get it into the QQQ.

BBWI – Bath and Body Works down 17% on weak outlook and a compete strategic rethink.

Crypto Related Financials – Strong today, up 2-5%.

XYZ – Block up another 2% after a solid rip yesterday on Analyst Day. Long-term margin guidance was great.

MRNA (Covid Vaccine Maker) – Up 2% after announcing a loan from Private Credit player Ares.

Novartis raises peak sales forecasts for Kisqali to at least $10B and Scemblix to $4B – Bloomey

Vaccines/autism – the CDC has changed its website and now say vaccines may cause autism - https://www.thedailybeast.com/scientists-freak-out-as-rfk-jrs-cdc-starts-pushing-bogus-vaccine-claim/ [thedailybeast.com]

WMT - shares are up more than3% in the premarket session after the retail giant reported third-quarter results that topped Street expectations. Executives raised the annual guidance metric, resulting in what some analysts say is a “conservative” 4Q view.

Technology

Megacaps YTD scoreboard: GOOGL +55%, NVDA +39%, MSFT +16%, AAPL +7%, AMZN +2%, META +1%

Key AI related prints left on 2025 calendar: Alibaba, DELL, MDB, CRDO, MRVL, PSTG, SNOW, CRM, HPE, ADBE, CIEN, AVGO, MU

AMZN: $315 PT; Backlog Model; Paths To Mid-20%+ AWS Growth In ’26; OW Top Pick at Morgan Stanley

NVDA: +5% huge next Q rev guide of $65B (buy side $63-64B); commentary as bullish as ever / no real surprise but clearly what AI trade needed given elevated angst following wave of degrossing since late October .. "$2B of rev from Hopper chips; useful life of GPUs is being extended - positive CRWV/NBIS; Rubin progressing well / on track; no new update on China; will cont to serve OpenAI thru cloud / working on strategy partnership" ....

NVDA bankshots: long list of names up 2% - 8% .... CRWV, ALAB, NBIS, CRDO, CLS, SMIC, VRT, BE, OKLO, AMD, AAOI, COHR, LITE, ARM, PLTR, MRVL, DELL, AVGO, ANET, ORCL, WDC, STX, TSM, APH, MU, GOOGL, SNOW

Elon Musk and Nvidia CEO Jensen plan to develop a 500 megawatt data center in Saudi Arabia – Bloomey

ALAB: bullish init BNP Exane - "the stock has declined 40% from the peak on investor concerns over the market acceptance of UALink, which creates an attractive entry point; thinks Amazon's next generations of Trainium server systems could drive significant rev growth opportunities for Astera over the next three years"

DDOG: -2.4% CEO sells $18.3M of shrs

DELL: BofA positive

Industrials

Israeli air strikes kill 27 in Gaza as fragile ceasefire frays New wave of deadly Israeli air strikes across Gaza despite ceasefire | Gaza | Al Jazeera [aljazeera.com]

AeroVironment (AVAV) initiated overweight at Piper Sandler; $391 PT

Eaton (ETN) announces the planned transition of CFO Olivier Leonetti effective 1-Apr-26; expects no changes to its full year guidance

Hubbell (HUBB) initiated neutral at UBS; $450 PT

Parsons (PSN) upgraded to outperform from market perform at William Blair

Roper Technologies (ROP) initiated overweight at Piper Sandler; $600 PT

Topbuild (BLD) initiated sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; $410 PT