Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
August 06, 2025

Morning Note

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Calendar

This Week – Last week was a mega cap earnings week, Fed, and NFPs. This week is none of those things. Look for second tier earnings names to paint the picture.

Wednesday – Two Fed Speakers

Thursday – Jobless Claims, 1 Fed speaker (Bostic)

Friday – 1 Fed Speaker

Trading Observations

News vacuum continues as earnings wind down
Semis the one group of note with ALAB higher and AMD + SMCI lower on numbers
6340 rejected yday and now a bit more of a hurdle, with 6400 the big level above
6295 support with 6200 more significant below
Doesn't 'feel' like it, but we are now almost 6 weeks sideways
Oscillators remain oversold - II Bulls down to 47% from 50%
Hedge funds have delevered significantly https://tinyurl.com/4d7r8nva [tinyurl.com]
Yet we remain near highs...
Homebuilders with some follow thru https://tinyurl.com/3dejr7ka [tinyurl.com]
Net income growth away from Mag7 concerning https://tinyurl.com/484384tr [tinyurl.com]
Power has been the obvious trend, and sure looks likely to continue https://tinyurl.com/2y2x2w3v [tinyurl.com]
With capex surging https://tinyurl.com/4skw65ww [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW +162

S&P +15

Nasdaq +45

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

VIX

Bitcoin

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

DIS – Down 1% - Beat and raise with DTC a bright spot. Theme parks mixed with flat attendance, but strong y/y pricing at +8%. NFL deal gives some hope to ESPN DTC rollout.

MCD – Up 3% - Comps +4% is good in this market. Taco Bell had the same, but KFC and Habit were both negative. Minecraft, Squishmallows, and value deals hit the bill.

UPST – Down 3% - Huge range overnight. Reads like a beat with no credit problems, which is the core negative thesis.

TOST – Down 3% - Solid beat, forecast just ok.

GPN – Up 5% - Stock has been cheap for a while.

PFE – Flat – Solid beat and outlook. Nobody cares if you aren’t a grower.

OSCR – Down 2% - Continued reset in health care continues on a small miss. Watch out if this one goes green as its very highly shorted.

LNTH – Down 30% on huge revenue miss.

CCEP – Coca-Cola enterprises down 8% on in-line numbers.

UPST: -6% missing high bar (+140% off Apr lows). Qrtr beat ests / missed buyside. Take rate Q/Q decline and overly bullish 3P data could be culprits” for the stock’s decline

Technology

AI POWER UP: Siemens Energy (ENR GY) record orders and double digit group rev growth. 1.70 book-to-bill. US demand driving Grid division +25% YoY growth. Guiding to upper end of already raised outlook

AAPL – To boost US Investment commitment by $100B – White House

ALAB: +16% solid with both Q2/Q3 revs ahead of buyside expectations. Popular short vs CRDO. Bullish call - "During Q2, we successfully executed the next step in our growth journey by ramping our PCIe 6 product portfolio into volume production for customized rack-scale AI systems and added multiple new design wins for our Scorpio Fabric Switches"

AMD: -6% rev for both qrtr + guide ahead of buyside expectations (but barely); another victim of failing to meet lofty expectations (I thought cleaned up positioning would provide a bit more support). "Looking ahead, we see a clear path to scaling our AI business to tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue" .... clarity on the potential for recapturing MI308 sales in China and the MI355 ramp-up strength remain key

ANET: +13% bullish call / keeping the AI positive mo going .... Raised its 2025E rev growth guidance to 25% yoy (vs 17% prior), 63-64% gross margins (60-62% prior), and 48% EBIT margins (43-44% prior). This implies a continuation of mid-20% revenue growth in 4Q25 and 2025 EPS guidance of approximately $2.80

CRUS: +5% big ~10%+ revs beat at $407mm vs cons $365mm .. guides Q2 revs above St to $510-570mm vs cons $503mm ... Co benefited in FQ1 from robust demand for its custom boosted amplifier and first 22-nanometer smart codec shipping in smartphones

DELL: -3% lower in sympathy w/ SMCI

EA: name expect to quietly grind higher into 10/10 Battlefield 6 launch .. closed @ fresh highs for move last night

MU: Micron outperformed in alpha ystrdy on reports from Asian press Hynix raising HBM prices; oversupply fears have led to huge uptick in memory debate

NVDA: -1% lower with AMD, SMCI .... reit that its chips don’t have backdoors or kill switches (Reuters)

MTCH: +6% Q3 rev outlook above; sales for Qrtr beat thanks to healthy rev per payer trends (up 5% to $20 vs St $19.67) as the co’s product repositioning initiatives begin to bear fruit, and the guide calls for more top line strength (they see June rev of $915M vs St $890M). MTCH remains an aggressive returner of capital, handing back $515M to shareholders via buybacks and dividends

PANW: closed sub $170 ... Cyber Sec names continue to waffle post recent M&A

QLYS: +8% beat and raises FY Revs / EPS guidance

QUANTUM: AMZN buying smallish position IONQ (+4%)

RNG: +14% slight beat on topline with ARR above street and +6.7% y/y; Guides 3Q revs below while reit FY Subs/Rev guide. Tweaks up FY FCF guide. Anncd a renewed collaboration with NIC

SHOP: +6% strong GMV/top line beat

SMCI: -15% not nearly enough given runup in shares. For qrtr, top/bottom line missed. GMs deteriorated. CEO blamed intense pricing pressure as the AI server space crowds, but maintained a bullish FY ’26 sales outlook of “at least $33 billion.” (DELL lower in sympathy) .... execution remains choppy

SNAP: -15% dumpster fire + shorts covered into print, eliminating much needed cover bid .... slowest growth in a year while rev and EBITDA missed while guiding revs/ebitda about inline with sell-side. North America DAUs down another ~1mm q/q to 98mm (also declined ~1mm q/q last qtr) . EBITDA was $41M (est $53M) .. Mgmt blame: 1) Ad change that caused 'auction' prices to be lower; 2) Ramadan timing; 3) effects of de minmis change ...... looks even worse given Meta's ad accel

SWKS: +8% better Q + guides above. "Mobile remains healthy, with solid order patterns and projected sequential growth of mid-single digits. Broad Markets is on track for another quarter of sequential growth and accelerating year-over-year performance"

UBER: -1% CHOPPY .... Mobility booking growth of +15.6% vs. Street at +16.4%; upside from Delivery .... Q3 GB bookings guide ahead of buyside; Q2 GB bookings $46.76B (buy side $46.6B ; adj EBITDA looks inline... A lot more debate into print given flurry of recent headlines (Lucid deal, Waymo/Avis; Robotaxi expansion, etc) ... $20B buyback .... Call @ 8am ET + Dara on CNBC at 710am ET ... Lucid a mess will only make ppl question this deal further

Industrials

CAT – turned negative after big Q2 EPS beat. Reports Q2 EPS $5.99 ex-items vs FactSet $5.56. Q2 revenue $16.69B vs FactSet $16.91B. Demand numbers were pretty weak.

Lucid (LCID) - Raised to Neutral at Cantor; PT $4. LCID production guide unchanged and announced PIF committed another $1.5B.