Trading Observations

• New ALL TIME highs, the longer we stay above 6100, the more relevant it becomes

• Trump told Fox News he’s “rather not” impose them on china showing reluctance that would likely to apply to Europe as well.

• Quiet newsflow today ahead of a big onslaught of earnings and macro next week

• Encouraging to see Euro PMIs and positive surprise on manufacturing

• US PMIs and UMich sentiment after the open

• NAAIM up to 86% from 70%, still room to run before it comes a headwind https://tinyurl.com/4vc783s4 [tinyurl.com]

• Notable that VIX put/call at .19, the first reading under .2 since Sept so could portend a bit of volatility ahead with market overbought

Futures

DOW -88

S&P -8

Nasdaq -26

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Financials / Retail / Healthcare

AXP – Flat – Expenses were high, the rest looked fine.

AFRM – Up 4.7% on news Liberty Mutual will help them with $750MM in funding.

XP – Up 3% - UBS upgrades on valuation and growth.

TOST – Up 2% on a bullish Opco note.

MSBI – Small bank, down 12% on a rough Q4.

NVO - Early amycretin data could suggest a best in class profile - still more data required. This morning, Novo released topline Phase 1b/2a data for the injectable version of its drug amycretin (weekly subQ GLP-1/amylin coagonist), which demonstrated placebo adjusted weight loss of c.24% at 36 weeks, at the highest dose level (20mg weekly).

Technology

Crypto: BITCOIN +2.3% as Trump 2.0 continues to roll out initiatives which were echoed during campaign; executive order intended to promote the advancement of crypto and potentially develop a national digital asset stockpile

AAPL: BofA lowered its fiscal Q2 iPhone units estimate to 49M from 56M, partly due to the weak macro and partly due to the staggered launch of Apple Intelligence features. Believes weaker iPhone sales are well understood by investors

ARM: gave back chunk of Wed rally as Semianalysis and other said Masa has to sell some stock to fund Stargate

DASH: +3% Thur after sell-side positive on Home Depot deal saying if 5% of HD’s digital sales were to shift to DASH, could contribute 160bps to DASH GOV, which would be significant

META - ZUCKERBERG SAYS META 2025 CAPEX $60B TO $65B, EST. $51.31B. Recall MSFT said $80B. Positive for companies like NVDA, ALAB etc EXPECTS 1 BILLION USERS OF META AI THIS YEAR

MSTR: MicroStrategy confirms shareholder approval of share increase to 10.33B shares - 8-K

NFLX: another capitulation upgrade - Bernstein raised to outperform saying the upgrade reflects sub growth and increasing operational leverage. "With the impending price hike in the US market, we expect US ARM to continue growing at a healthy rate"

TXN: -5% Tepid forecast pts to a recovery bouncing along the bottom (no secret but non-AI demand is just TERRIBLE; was some optimism for talks of greenshoots) ... weaker GMs to persist a few more yrs; FCF remains muted on strong capex / slow end mkt recovery ... post few convos, seems like there was sneaky long camp here hoping TI would kick off recovery for group

TXN / Analog bankshots: ADI-1.3%, ON -1.2%, MCHP-1% .... Europe: IFX+1.5%, Melexis+1.4%, STM+1%

TWLO: +10% bullish update during Investor Day - anncd oper margin goal of 21-22% for 2027, a sizeable beat vs est 17.8%. Mgmt said its Q4 rev/op. income would be stronger ... Bulls echo emerging optimism over Twilio's gradual growth acceleration as it realizes recent initiatives to capture a broader market opportunity in the official intelligence-enriched customer experience as a service market

VZ: +1% positioning leaned short ... Top/bottom line beat; Wireless Service rev $20B, est $19.96B; FIOS Internet subscribers +51,000, -7.3% y/y, est +44,675; sees FY25 adjusted EBITDA growth 2%-3.5%. Reit FY capex

Industrials 

Air Products (APD) upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays

 Boeing (BA) trading down 2% after negatively preannouncing 4Q24 results. 4Q revenue of $15.2bn, a GAAP loss per share of ($5.46), and operating cash flow of ($3.5)bn. Estimates of 4Q revenue of $15.1bn, a GAAP loss per share of ($0.52)

CF Industries Holdings (CF) downgraded to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan

Dana Inc. (DAN) trading up 10% after positively preannouncing 2024 EBITDA and raising FY25 EBITDA guidance

DNOW, Inc. (DNOW) announces new $160M share repurchase program

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies

GE Vernova (GEV) downgraded to neutral from buy at Guggenheim Securities

Magna International (MGA) upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets

Middleby Corp (MIDD) trading up 8% - Activist Garden Investments builds stake in Middleby; pushes for changes - media report

Oshkosh (OSK) upgraded to overweight from sector weight at KeyBanc

Sherwin-Williams (SHW) upgraded to buy from hold at Berenberg

Steel Dynamics (STLD) upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies

Textron (TXT) downgraded to neutral from buy at BofA