Trading Observations

• Still waiting on Powell - rates ticking higher into the meeting and 6085 remains formidable resistance

• 11 days in a row of negative breadth now putting a damper on sentiment (needed)

• Need Powell out of way for Santa to come to town?

• My view - as long as 10yr rise stops at 4.5% wont be a headwind in and of itself.

• A push thru 6085 should lead quickly to 6125.  6010 support....

• Oscillators push further into oversold territory

Upgrades – ACI, AR, AVB, BHLB, BVS, BNL, NET, CNH, CUZ, ECL, EOG, EPAM, FR, GTY, GNL, HRZN, MAC, MAA, MOFG, NDSN, OC, DGX, SHLS, SEDG, TSLA, TKR, VRE, WSC, ZBH

Downgrades – ADC, ALEC, APA, APLS, ARCO, AXTA, BF/B, CPT, CSIQ, CRVO, COMM, EGP, ELME, ESS, EXEL, HNST, INNV, MQ, MAS, MTCH, PACS, PPG, TMDX, VIAV, VICI, WEX

Futures

DOW -187

S&P -20

Nasdaq -41

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

T Rowe raises prospect of 6% Treasury Yields on fiscal risk https://finance.yahoo.com/news/t-rowe-raises-prospect-treasury-070004158.html [finance.yahoo.com]

PFE – Up 2% - 2025 EPS guide of $2.90 bid is ahead of ~$2.89 street. Looks cost cutting generated which is why the stock doesn’t care more.

Baird on Charge Offs and Delinquencies – Improving y/y. Consumer credit health remains solid. They are neutral on valuations.

AFRM – Down 3% on a $750M convert offering.

MQ, WEX – Cut on growth concerns at Barclays.

DIS – Gets rights to Bluey movie for 2027.

GPN - Global Payments’s Baldwin Buys $672,800 of Shares

WM raised its quarterly dividend by 10%.

Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk prepare for $80B shopping spree in 2025 amid obesity drug success – Reuters

WMT is looking to boost its e-commerce sales in China through a strategic partnership with Chinese shopping platform Meituan.

Technology

Nvidia: trading well below the 50D, and it closed below the short-term trend line yesterday. The 100D comes in just below the $130 support. Could be seeing the head and shoulders formation "triggered". The medium term technical price target of that HS would imply $120, just around where the 200D comes in

NVDA: down 7 out of 8 .. Hasn't closed below 100D since early Sept; inching towards there. $$ into AVGO (a little obnoxious on the AVGO, welcome to the new world of chasing not looking at valuations) ... Fading / nonexistent momentum - hasn’t closed this far below its 50D since Sept. AI trade broadening out ... contd concern around China/elevated restrictions

EBAY authorized incremental $3B share repurchase program.

TSLA Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $515

TikTok appeals to Supreme Court to block US ban amid ongoing legal battle – AP

META said on Monday that it was updating the Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses with live AI video capability and real-time language translation.

TSLA: +3% in pre .. capitulation UPGRADE from Mizuho - better late than never???? Momentum contd. Shrs up 8 out of last 9; stock up >55% since Election T+2

NFLX: shrs off highs; upcoming NFL games on Christmas; Squid Games 2 release Dec 26

Industrials 

Adient (ADNT) downgraded to equal weight from overweight at Wells Fargo Securities

PG&E to receive record $15B loan from White House to support fighting effects of climate change and improving electrical grid

Volkswagen and unions locked in tense negotiations over cost cuts and job security - Reuters

Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) downgraded to sector weight from overweight at KEY

Canadian Solar (CSIQ) downgraded to sell from neutral at GS

CNH Industrial (CNH) upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at MS

Ecolab (ECL) upgraded to outperform from market perform at BMO Capital Markets

Kirby Corp (KEX) removed from BofA’s US 1 List

Masco (MAS) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo

Nordson (NDSN) upgraded to buy from neutral at Seaport Research Partners

Owens Corning (OC) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo

PPG Industries (PPG) downgraded to sector weight from overweight at KEY

Shoals Technologies (SHLS) upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at MS

SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) upgraded to buy from sell at GS

Tesla (TSLA) upgraded to outperform from neutral at Mizuho Securities USA

Timken (TKR) upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at MS

WillScot Holdings (WSC) upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at MS

XPO, Inc. (XPO) added to BofA’s US 1 List