Calendar

This Week – 20 Fed speakers, but no Powell should all drown out in noise. This would be a key negative pre-announcement week for some into bank earnings which kick off Friday.

Thursday – TSLA Robotaxi, CPI, Jobless Claims, DPZ and DAL earnings.

Friday – PPI, Bank earnings begin with JPM, WFC, BK, BLK.

Upgrades – AFRM, HUM, SNCY, UFPI, UWMC, WAT, WFC

Downgrades – ALB, AXP (2 cuts), CME, STZ, FYBR, MSFT, OMF, OTIS, QCOM, SYNA

Trading Observations

• Little incremental, but most importantly yields stable - number of Fed speakers again today

• GOOGL lower on talk of forced breakup (though sum of parts worth more)

• Rally 'felt' good, but under the hood not that impressive - IWM flat, breadth flat, upside volume 42% NYSE and 55% Nazz

• 5765 resistance 5690 support…

• Oscillators pushing more oversold

• II Bulls DROP to 53.2% from 55.7% (still neutral) despite market being within a whisker of new highs

Futures

DOW -17

S&P -1

Nasdaq -14

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

Retail Traffic Numbers per Prodco show declining traffic for last week, down 1.1% y/y. Apparel and luxury softening.

NCLH – Norwegian Cruise Lines upgraded at Citi on “considerable upside”.

AFRM – Another upgrade, this one at MS on higher spend potential. Stock up 3%.

BX – Downgraded to neutral at Piper as they say tailwinds are priced in.

APO – Bloomberg negative on the firm’s ploy to take on the big banks in lending because Atlas has struggled post takeover.

PYPL PayPal’s Venmo introduces a new feature to set up one-time or recurring payments monthly, weekly, or bi-weekly in advance.

Technology

ALAB: +10% introduces new portfolio of fabric switches purpose-built for AI infrastructure at cloud-scale ... looks to be a completely new product line

GOOGL: headline hit @ 945pm ET ... US Justice Dept told a federal judge it is considering recommending that Google be forced to sell off parts of its ops to alleviate the harm caused by its monopolization of the online search market - “is considering behavioral and structural remedies that would prevent Google from using products such as Chrome, Play, and Android to advantage Google search and Google search-related products and features — including emerging search access points and features, such as AI — over rivals or new entrants”

NVDA: Jensen in Boston today ... following 48 hrs in NYC spreading the 'everything is awesome' message (Hon Hai pumping up 'crazy' demand not hurting the messaging either)

NVDA bankshot: few names coming in convos which are to benefit from new Blackwell chip having longer testing times = Advantest / KYEC ... KYEC charges on testing time and will see upside from this. Advantest has seen an increase in orders from KYEC due to this

TSMC: Sept sales beat guide - reflects strong demand for AI chips and new N3E process orders from Apple, Qualcomm and MediaTek, despite delays in shipments of Blackwell; GMs solid ... Focus in 3Q earnings call will be on whether 4Q guide can exceed consensus' 7% sequential-growth est. Other key topics include the potential for earlier 2nm mass production and plans to expand its CoWoS advanced packaging capacity in 2025

HPE: AI event Thursday - could show off new liquid cooling products (neg SMCI) ... init hold @ Deutsche - concerns around heightened execution risk, as the company embarks on a bigger strategic push into networking via the pending Juniper acquisition

RDDT: +3% bullish Jefferies initiation on user growth / AI boost; estimates Ebitda will more than double in the next 2 years to ~$450m thanks to growth in users

LYFT / UBER / DASH– Rated New Buy at China Merchants (out of Hong Kong)

Industrials 

ArcBest (ARCB) downgraded to peerperform at Wolfe

Boeing (BA) trading down 1.6% on multiple headlines out overnight - Boeing withdraws pay offer to IAM - Reuters, citing company - Boeing considering raising billions of dollars through sale of stock and equity-like securities – Reuters – Boeing may be cut to Junk by S&P

Expeditors (EXPD) downgraded to underperform at Wolfe

Honeywell (HON) upgraded to buy at CFRA

Saia Inc. (SAIA) upgraded to outperform at Wolfe

Southwest Airlines (LUV) upgraded to hold from underperform at Jefferies

FSLR - HSBC initiated coverage of First Solar Inc. with a recommendation of buy with $358 PT.