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NYSE Ticker: RVER

Calendar

This Week – Earnings heavy with over 100 S&P 500 names reporting, but TSLA the only MANGMAN(T). The Fed Speakers are almost all non-voting, so we would expect irrelevance.

Monday – QCOM Presents

Tuesday – Philly Fed, Earnings – GM, KMB, PHM, RTX, LMT, FI, GE, ENPH, TXN

Wednesday – Existing Home Sales, Beige Book. Earnings – T, BA, HLT, KO, IBM, TSLA, LVS, COF, NOW

ThursdayJobless Claims, KC Fed, New Home Sales, Earnings – LUV, TSCO,

Friday – Durable Goods, Earnings - HCA

Trading Observations

  • Futures are soft, with Tech and Smalls underperforming

  • Stocks remain overbought into week three of earnings- 37% of S&P500 report this week

  • Notable S&P 500 implied moves on earnings this week DXCM 14.2%, MOH 12.4%, ENPH 11.4%, EW 10.5%, TER 9.5%, RMD 9.2%, ALGN 9.2%, WST 9%

  • Today: Leading Index at 10:00 am, four Fed speakers

  • Tomorrow: Philly Fed at 8:30 am, Richmond Fed at 10:00 am

  • 5830 is near-term support   

Futures

DOW -47

S&P -12

Nasdaq -74

CNN Fear/Greed Index

10-Year Yield

Oil

Gold

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

GS Checking in on some branded goods upgraded WRBY to buy, and downgraded GOOS to sell as week as reiterating buy on SN (Shark Ninja). They are calling the consumer ‘resilient’.

Alts – BLK put up a big inflow number, and GS is out saying TPG, KKR, and CG could all see valuation improvement.

DIS – Announced a new Chairman and expectations for a new CEO in early 2026. This gives Iger room to throw around some weight.

SAVE – Up 40% (to $2) as they have pushed back a key debt refinancing deadline. JBLU lower on the news.

HTZ – Down 4% on underweight downgrade at JPM. An underweight rating and $3.13 last must mean they think it’s a $0.

HUM sued US health agencies in push to reverse cut to key Medicare quality ratings.

Adidas is hoping Patrick Mahomes can become its Michael Jordan, helping to firm to dethrone Nike’s dominance of the US market - WSJ

V is the subject of a long and relatively damning profile article in the WSJ focused on the various (potentially anticompetitive) steps the company took over the year to ensure its dominance of the credit and debit market - WSJ

Technology

Buybacks/Big Tech: #1 driver of S&P buyback growth .... Within Info Tech, AAPL is still expected to be the largest share of repurchases ($92B) in 2024, but NVDA's new buyback program has contributed significantly to growth and now surpasses MSFT in dollar terms ($30B vs $19B)

TMT positioning (ex Megacap): Crowded Longs: NOW DDOG AVGO NFLX SPOT LYV TTD TMUS T ANET FI MA .... Crowded Shorts SNOW ADBE INTC WOLF ETSY LYFT WBD PARA HPQ SMCI Cable GPN SQ .... Controversial CRM MRVL PINS DIS RBLX CSCO PYPL

AAPL: Apple AI was the subject of critical comments in a Bberg report, noting that it’s more than two years behind the industry leaders

AI ARMS RACE: Marvell sees many AI chipmakers unable to stay in the game given the huge amounts of capital required to stay competitive (CTO commentary)

SIRI Warren Buffett is amplifying his bet on Sirius XM Holdings, as Berkshire Hathaway Inc. keeps adding more shares of the radio broadcasting firm to its portfolio.

EXPE: +VE article in Barrons

FTNT: names top pick @ MS

GTLB shares rise 3.1% after the application software company was upgraded to buy from hold at Needham.

NOW: -1.8% as MS downgrading (stock little reaction to OTR upgrade last wk).

RDDT MASSIVE BREAKOUT: >$80 on above avg volume – crowded HF long which cont to work (heard move driven by 3P data, smi – never saw details and personally never heard of. Few think it’s pretty noisy fwiw )

Industrials 

BA made new proposal to striking machinists' union with ratification vote set for Wed (earnings ALSO due Wed….) The tentative deal with its striking union workers that would increase compensation by 35% over four years (which is up from its original offer of 25%)

Spirit Airlines (SAVE) shares jump as much as 71% after the carrier reached an agreement with U.S. Bank National Association to extend a deadline by which the airline must extend o

Nuclear stocks spike as tech giants embrace the energy source to power their data centers - FT

 

Six consecutive green weeks for the seventh time in the last decade

Bulls celebrated IWM $225 last week and are now focused on a potential breakout for Transports

$WBA: up +20% in 2 days, 14% store closures, bold moves by new CEO